TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS

Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System

Committee on Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System Committee on Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. NNH05CC15C between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09733-9 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-65283-9 (PDF) Available in limited supply from Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001, (202) 334-2858. Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, www.nap.edu. Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System COMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS: ASSESSING THE INTEGRATED PLAN FOR A NEXT GENERATION AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM S. MICHAEL HUDSON, Chair, Rolls-Royce North America (retired), Indianapolis, Indiana THOMAS M. COOK, T.C.I., Dallas, Texas1 VAUGHN CORDLE, Airlineforecasts, LLC, Clifton, Virginia JERALD M. DAVIS, Aviation Consultant, Daytona Beach, Florida JOHN B. HAYHURST, The Boeing Company (retired), Bellevue, Washington RICHARD MARCHI, Airports Council International–North America, Washington, D.C. AMY R. PRITCHETT, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta EDMOND L. SOLIDAY, United Airlines (retired), Valparaiso, Indiana HANSEL E. TOOKES II, Raytheon International, Inc. (retired), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida IAN A. WAITZ, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge DAVID C. WISLER, GE Aircraft Engines, Cincinnati, Ohio Staff ALAN ANGLEMAN, Study Director KARA BATH, Senior Project Assistant ANNA FARRAR, Financial Associate GEORGE LEVIN, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board CONNIE WOLDU, Administrative Assistant 1   Resigned May 7, 2005.

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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD WILLIAM W. HOOVER, Chair, U.S. Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia EDWARD M. BOLEN, National Business Aviation Association, Washington, D.C. ANTHONY J. BRODERICK, Aviation Safety Consultant, Catlett, Virginia JOHN-PAUL BARRINGTON CLARKE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge RAYMOND S. COLLADAY, Lockheed Martin Astronautics (retired), Golden, Colorado ROBERT L. CRIPPEN, Thiokol Propulsion (retired), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida DONALD L. CROMER, U.S. Air Force (retired), Fallbrook, California PRESTON HENNE, Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Savannah, Georgia S. MICHAEL HUDSON, Rolls-Royce North America (retired), Indianapolis, Indiana JOHN L. JUNKINS, Texas A&M University, College Station JOHN M. KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired), Redwood City, California ILAN M. KROO, Stanford University, Stanford, California MOLLY K. MACAULEY, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. GEORGE K. MUELLNER, The Boeing Company, Long Beach, California ELON MUSK, Space Exploration Development Corporation–SpaceX, El Segundo, California MALCOLM R. O’NEILL, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland AMY R. PRITCHETT, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta DEBRA L. RUB, The Boeing Company, Anaheim, California CYNTHIA SAMUELSON, Logistics Management Institute, McLean, Virginia PETER STAUDHAMMER, University of Southern California, La Quinta, California HANSEL E. TOOKES II, Raytheon International, Inc. (retired), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida RAY VALEIKA, Delta Airlines (retired), Powder Springs, Georgia ROBERT S. WALKER, Wexler & Walker Public Policy Associates, Washington, D.C. ROBERT E. WHITEHEAD, National Institute of Aerospace, Henrico, North Carolina THOMAS L. WILLIAMS, Northrop Grumman, El Segundo, California Staff GEORGE LEVIN, Director

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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System Preface Federal legislation created the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) in December 2003. Tasks assigned to the JPDO include planning the development of an air transportation system capable of meeting potential air traffic demand by 2025 as well as overseeing and coordinating necessary research among federal agencies and private industry. Completing all of the tasks assigned to the JPDO will be a difficult challenge that goes beyond the limited authority and fiscal resources possessed by the JPDO. The JPDO staff have met this challenge in part through the establishment of nine integrated product teams (IPTs), which are serving as a vehicle both to involve other agencies with an interest in the U.S. air transportation system and to ensure that responsibility for improving the system rests with agencies and government officials with the authority and resources to make the necessary changes. The IPT approach has the potential to address the complexity of NGATS and facilitate an integrated approach that involves private stakeholders and federal agencies. However, the committee recommends that the IPTs be reduced in number and restructured to focus on the operational products that NGATS will require for success. In addition, the committee encourages the JPDO to implement the committee’s recommendations through modifications to the Integrated Plan, to IPT documents, or to both. Some of the recommendations in this report are directed to the secretary of transportation, the administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, and the administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration because they are members of the Senior Policy Committee that oversees the JPDO. Michael Hudson, Chair Committee on Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System

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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: George L. Donohue, George Mason University Ilan Kroo, Stanford University Richard C. Larson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology John Lauber, Airbus SAS Michael S. Nolan, Purdue University Agam Sinha, MITRE Corporation Richard W. Taylor, Boeing (retired) Ray Valeika, Delta Airlines (retired) Bill G.W. Yee, Pratt & Whitney (retired) Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert J. Hermann, Global Technology Partners, LLC. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   3      Overview of the Integrated Plan,   5      Demand Is the Key,   6      References,   6 2   VISION AND GOALS   7      Vision and Capacity,   7      Goals,   8      Risk-Based Approach,   9      Assessing Goals and Policies,   9      References,   10 3   OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS   11      References,   13 4   RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP AND INTEGRATED PRODUCT TEAMS   14      Roadmap,   14      Integrated Product Teams,   14      Core Technologies and Processes,   16      Automation and Human Factors,   17      Research and Technology Levels,   17      Airport Improvements,   17      Aircraft Noise, Emissions, and Water Quality,   17      Global Harmonization,   18      References,   18 5   IMPLEMENTATION   19      Outreach and Incentives for Change,   20      Systems Integration and Program Management,   21      Certification,   21      Resources,   21      References,   24

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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System 6   SUMMARY   26     FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   27     APPENDIXES         A   Table of Contents of the Next Generation Air Transportation System Integrated Plan   31     B   The Vision 100—Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act Public Law 108-176, Sections 709 and 710   33     C   Integrated Plan Inventory   36     D   Statement of Task and Study Approach   38     E   Biographies of Committee Members   40     F   An Approach to Assessing Goals and Policies   43     G   Draft Plans by the Environmental Integrated Product Team   44     H   Acronyms and Abbreviations   48

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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System Tables and Figures TABLES 4-1   IPT Linkages Depicted in Chapter 7 of the Integrated Plan,   15 5-1   Trust Fund Income and FAA Operational Expenses per IFR Operation, FY 2003 and 2004,   23 FIGURES 1-1   Organization of the JPDO and the Senior Policy Committee,   4 5-1   Airport and Airway Trust Fund: income and expenditures,   22

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