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POPULATION, LAND USE, AND ENVIRONMENT

RESEARCH DIRECTIONS

Panel on New Research on Population and the Environment

Barbara Entwisle and Paul C. Stern, editors

Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change

Center for Economics, Governance, and International Studies

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions POPULATION, LAND USE, AND ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH DIRECTIONS Panel on New Research on Population and the Environment Barbara Entwisle and Paul C. Stern, editors Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Center for Economics, Governance, and International Studies Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. N01-OD-4-2139, TO #91 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and Contract/Grant No. 2001-7477 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Hewlett Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Population, land use, and environment : research directions / Panel on New Research on Population and the Environment, Barbara Entwisle and Paul C. Stern, editors; Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Center for Economics, Governance, and International Studies Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-309-09655-3 (pbk.)—ISBN 0-309-55030-0 (pdf) 1. Population—Environmental aspects. 2. Land use—Environmental aspects. 3. Human ecology. I. Entwisle, Barbara. II. Stern, Paul C., 1944- III. National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on New Research on Population and the Environment. IV. National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change. HB849.415.P67 2005 304.2—dc22 2005016858 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Printed in the United States of America. Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cover photo: Composite satellite image of the Pearl River Delta, China, from the Landsat Thematic Mapper (RGB432), circa 1992. Red represents vegetated areas; bright white represents new urban land; bright blue are old urban centers; and various shades of purple or dark blue intermixed with red are fish paddies or farmland. Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2005). Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions. Panel on New Research on Population and the Environment. Barbara Entwisle and Paul C. Stern, editors. Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions PANEL ON NEW RESEARCH ON POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT Barbara Entwisle (Chair), Carolina Population Center and Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Myron P. Gutmann, Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR), University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Wolfgang Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Emilio Moran, Department of Anthropology, Indiana University Dennis Ojima, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University Steward Pickett, Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY Peter J. Richerson, Division of Environmental Studies, University of California, Davis Mark R. Rosenzweig, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Susan C. Stonich, Department of Anthropology and Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara Paul C. Stern, Study Director Deborah Johnson, Senior Program Assistant

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions COMMITTEE ON THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE Thomas J. Wilbanks (Chair), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN Barbara Entwisle, Carolina Population Center and Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Andrew Foster, Departments of Economics and Community Health, Brown University Roger Kasperson, Department of Geography, Clark University Edward Miles, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington Edward A. Parson, School of Natural Resources and the Environment and University of Michigan Law School, Ann Arbor Alan Randall, Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, Ohio State University Peter J. Richerson, Division of Environmental Studies, University of California, Davis Eugene Rosa, Natural Resource and Environmental Policy, Washington State University Cynthia Rosenzweig, Climate Impacts Group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Brooklyn, NY Stephen Schneider, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University Joel Tarr, Department of History, Carnegie Mellon University Oran R. Young (ex officio), Program on Governance for Sustainable Development, University of California, Santa Barbara Paul C. Stern, Study Director Deborah Johnson, Senior Program Assistant

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions Preface The interactions of human population growth and migration with environmental quality have long been a topic of debate among demographers, natural scientists, and other observers. A recent expansion of empirical research on the topic made it timely to review the state of the field to set an agenda for research in the coming decade. To this end, with the support of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and with input from the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, the Panel on New Research on Population and the Environment of the National Research Council (NRC) organized a workshop to bring together social and natural scientists to discuss results from ongoing research projects, as well as to find ways to enhance the exchange of knowledge among disciplines. Empirical research on population and environment can be divided into four major categories. Studies have focused on population effects that operate either primarily via change in land and water use (e.g., deforestation, habitat fragmentation, water pollution, introduction of exotic species) or primarily via industrial processes (e.g., emissions of pollutants to atmosphere or waterways). Studies below the global scale have tended to focus either on processes in developing countries or on processes in wealthy countries. Research exists in each cell of the implied table, although more attention has been given to some cells than others. In particular, recent empirical research has emphasized population-environment linkages that operate via change in land use. In order to adequately reflect and incorporate a full range of disciplinary diversity and variability in field site and situation, the committee decided to focus the workshop on this linkage.

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions Given a focus on land use as the link between population and environment, the 1993 NRC volume Population and Land Use in Developing Countries was a natural point of departure. Since its publication, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development at the National Institutes of Health developed a program on population, land use, and environment and funded a number of research projects, some of which are represented in the papers assembled for the workshop and this volume. Related programs at the National Science Foundation and at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration were also important sources of support. These projects, too, are represented. The research on population, land use, and environment in the 1990s and early 2000s was scientifically much stronger than in the past. It also began to open new research directions and suggest new hypotheses that should be pursued. This is why the time was ripe for an effort to collect some of the best recent research, review its strengths and weaknesses, and discuss the implications for future directions. Through consultations with experts in population and environment, including experts from both the behavioral and social sciences and the biological and ecological sciences, the committee identified an interdisciplinary group of researchers who could contribute to assessing and advancing research on interrelations between population, land use, and the environment. The first task of the Panel on New Research in Population and the Environment was to organize the workshop. Its overall goal was to assess and advance research on interrelations between population and the environment, with a particular focus on environmental effects of population changes mediated by land use change. More specific goals of the workshop were to present research reflecting the state of the art in empirical work and conceptual and integrative research that promises to advance empirical knowledge; point toward more sophisticated analysis of population and environmental variables in research on human-environment interactions; demonstrate modes of collaboration between social scientists and natural scientists on population-environment research by including joint presentations by social scientists and natural scientists from the same research groups; examine closely how particular demographic processes interact with environmental processes, particularly separating effects of natural increase from those of migration; examine the multiple determinants of population behavior, consider-

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions ing the effects of cultural, economic, and biophysical context on population-environment relations; and examine the empirical research in light of available integrative concepts in order to define research directions that can lead to more rapid accumulation and integration of knowledge. The second task of the panel was to synthesize the results of the workshop, describing the progress that has been made, evaluating strengths and weaknesses, and identifying unanswered questions and to make recommendations about directions for future research in this area. The panel organized the workshop around a set of interdisciplinary studies of population, land use, and environment in a wide variety of settings. Of particular interest were detailed, ongoing, longitudinal, site-based studies being done by research teams that include both social and natural scientists. The selection of studies to include was guided by a rubric that distinguished between disciplinary starting point and research setting. The studies selected represent different starting points in social science (primarily demography) and natural science (primarily ecology) yet include both perspectives. Research settings for the studies cover urban and rural contexts in developing and wealthy countries. Some cells of the implied 2 × 2 × 2 table are populated by many excellent studies that met our criteria (especially rural site-based studies in developing countries), whereas other cells are sparser (e.g., urban site-based studies in developing countries). In some instances, the choice of which study to include was difficult. Selections were made in such a way as to feature disciplinary diversity and regional variability. The panel also thought that it was important to include a global perspective. In the workshop, the strengths and limitations of the studies were discussed from social science and natural science perspectives to identify potentially fruitful areas for future progress and collaboration. Representatives of the research projects were invited to attend a two-day workshop, which was held January 14-16, 2004, at the Beckman Center of the National Academies in Irvine, California. Authors were asked to write papers that identified the important research questions for their project and study site; explained how they conceptualized connections between population, land use, and environment; described the research designs and statistical techniques they have used; provided an overview of their major findings; and reflected on the challenges and benefits of integrating social science and natural science perspectives. Authors were asked to tell the story of their projects and to summarize the major findings, citing more technical reports of the research that are available. Revised versions of these papers appear as chapters in Part II of this volume, in the order that they are cited in Part I, the panel’s report itself.

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions The workshop was organized around groupings of papers and related discussion. The papers by John Weeks and colleagues on Cairo, Egypt, and by Charles Redman on metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona, were paired. Both address rapid demographic and land use change in urban areas in desert environments, but they do so from sharply different perspectives. The papers by Pamela Matson and colleagues on the Yaqui Valley, Mexico, and Myron Gutmann and colleagues on the U.S. Great Plains both address change in agricultural regions with considerable dependence on irrigation, but the initial orientation and questions differ. The papers by Jack Liu and colleagues on Wolong Nature Reserve, China, and Andrew Foster on rural India have in common an interest in tensions between economic development and the maintenance of common-pool resources (bamboo forest and endangered pandas in China and commonly held forest lands in India), but they differ dramatically in methods and approach. The papers by Karen Seto on the Pearl River Delta in China and Red River Delta in Vietnam, by Stephen Walsh and colleagues on Nang Rong, Thailand, and by Emilio Moran and colleagues on the Brazilian Amazon, all focus on land use change to and from agriculture, although in vastly different cultural, historical, social, and economic contexts. The paper by Günther Fischer and Brian O’Neill addresses issues of global modeling. Discussion at the workshop was lively and covered a wide variety of topics, including a few discussions of larger issues and integrative challenges. A discussion of the difficulties of joining social science and natural science approaches addressed a range of concerns, from the absence of a fully developed conceptual model of the coupled human-natural system to very practical issues related to the time and resources needed for integrative research. A discussion of the challenges of linking the site-based studies to regional and global models addressed the issue of the generalizability of site-based studies. Another cross-cutting discussion addressed how spatial, temporal, and institutional contexts relate to cross-scale linkages and to the integration of different approaches to the study of population, land use, and environment. Yet another considered the roles of social institutions in mediating population–land use–environment relationships, which arose in every paper prepared for the workshop. A final panel discussion addressed data and methods needed for further progress in the modeling of complexity and answering questions about cause and effect. This volume would not have been possible without resources provided by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the generous contribution of time and energy from many experts in the field. In addition to standing members of the NRC Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Rebecca Clark, Pamela Matson, Fred Myerson, and Holly Reed participated in the initial framing of the project. Each signed paper in this

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions volume, regardless of orientation, was sent to a social scientist and to a natural scientist for review. The goal was a collection of papers that would be viewed as useful to a broad audience. We are most grateful to the following reviewers for their comments on the papers and for their critiques and suggestions as to how papers might be improved: Deborah Balk, Columbia University; Lawrence Brown, Ohio State University; Sara R. Curran, Princeton University; Erle C. Ellis, University of Maryland, Baltimore County; Christine Goodale, Cornell University; Flora Lu Holt, University of North Carolina; Richard Houghton, Woods Hole Research Center; Lori Hunter, University of Colorado; Marc Imhoff, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Leiwen Jiang, Brown University; Randall Kuhn, University of Colorado; Landis MacKellar, The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); George Malanson, University of Iowa; William Moomaw, Tufts University; Barry R. Noon, Colorado State University; Diane Pataki, University of Utah; Pete Richerson, University of California, Davis; Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Donald Worster, University of Kansas; and Xingming Xiao, University of New Hampshire. We are grateful for their thoughtful comments and suggestions as well as their attention to detail. The review process for the panel’s overview and recommendations chapters followed formal NRC procedures. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Richard Bilsborrow, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; Thomas H. Dietz, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, College of Natural Science and College of Social Science, Michigan State University; Robert Kates, independent scholar, Trenton, Maine; Geoffrey McNicoll, Population Council, New York; Harold A. Mooney, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University; Robert Repetto, Stratus Consulting, Inc., Boulder, Colorado; Barbara Boyle Torrey, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, DC; and Billie Lee Turner, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions release. The review of this report was overseen by John Bongaarts, Population Council, New York. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. Barbara Entwisle, Chair Panel on New Research on Population and the Environment

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions Contents PART I:   PANEL REPORT         Executive Summary   3 1   The State of Knowledge   7 2   Recommended Research Directions   31     References   40 PART II:   PAPERS     3   Global and Case-Based Modeling of Population and Land Use Change Günther Fischer and Brian C. O’Neill   53 4   Population and Environment in the U.S. Great Plains Myron P. Gutmann, William J. Parton, Geoff Cunfer, and Ingrid C. Burke   84 5   Population and Environment in Amazônia: Landscape and Household Dynamics Emilio F. Moran, Eduardo S. Brondízio, and Leah K. VanWey   106

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Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions 6   Population Change and Landscape Dynamics: The Nang Rong, Thailand, Studies Stephen J. Walsh, Ronald R. Rindfuss, Pramote Prasartkul, Barbara Entwisle, and Aphichat Chamratrithirong   135 7   The Urban Ecology of Metropolitan Phoenix: A Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Study Charles L. Redman   163 8   Economies, Societies, and Landscapes in Transition: Examples from the Pearl River Delta, China, and the Red River Delta, Vietnam Karen C. Seto   193 9   Beyond Population Size: Examining Intricate Interactions Among Population Structure, Land Use, and Environment in Wolong Nature Reserve, China Jianguo Liu, Li An, Sandra S. Batie, Scott L. Bearer, Xiaodong Chen, Richard E. Groop, Guangming He, Zai Liang, Marc A. Linderman, Angela G. Mertig, Zhiyun Ouyang, Jiaguo Qi, Hermin Zhang, and Shiqiang Zhou   217 10   People, Land Use, and Environment in the Yaqui Valley, Sonora, Mexico Pamela Matson, Amy L. Luers, Karen C. Seto, Rosamond L. Naylor, and J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio   238 11   Patterns of Urban Land Use as Assessed by Satellite Imagery: An Application to Cairo, Egypt John R. Weeks, Dennis P. Larson, and Debbie L. Fugate   265 12   A Review of 10 Years of Work on Economic Growth and Population Change in Rural India Andrew Foster   287 APPENDIX About the Contributors   307