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Appendix E
Estimated Recommendation Cost Tables
The following tables provide each implementation action and a “back
of the envelope” estimate of the incremental annual cost to the federal gov-
ernment for each. These cost estimates are to illustrate the size of the pro-
gram the committee is proposing and are not definitive. To obtain a more
definitive estimate, economic modeling would be necessary.
Since the prepublication version of the report was released on October
12, 2005, policy-makers have requested a 10-year annual cost estimate for
the committee’s recommendations. That estimate is what is presented here.
In developing this estimate, the committee collected more detailed informa-
tion than it had at that time to develop these cost estimates. In addition, we
have attempted to provide sufficient information so that the cost estimates
could be re-created.
In many cases, programs are phased in over a number of years. In addi-
tion, some of the scholarship and fellowship programs take 3-4 years to
reach steady state.
The aggregate cost estimate of all the recommendations remain in the
same range as the committee developed in October 2005. The cost estimate
at that time was $9.2 to $23.8 billion. The current aggregate cost estimate
is $8.6 to $19.8 billion.
501
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502 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM
Gathering Storm Annual Cost Estimate, by Recommendation, 2007-2016
(millions of dollars)
Recommendation 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
K–12 376 747 1219 1689 1976
Research 1670 2790 4010 5430 6850
Higher Education 1100 1700 2300 2675 2675
Innovation 5423 5423 5423 5423 5423
TOTAL 8569 10660 12952 15217 16924
Gathering Storm Annual Cost Estimate, by Action Item, 2007-2016 (millions of dollars)
Action Item Recommendation 2007 2008 2009 2010
A-1 Recruit 10,000 Teachers 110 295 550 815
A-2a Summer Institutes 40 80 120 120
A-2b Master’s Program 46 92 158 224
A-2c AP/IB Teacher Incentives 100 179 265 363
A-2d Science and Math Curriculum 20 20 20 20
A-3 AP/IB Student Incentives 60 81 106 147
Total (K–12) 376 747 1219 1689
B-1 Long-Term Basic Research 800 1700 2700 3900
B-2 Early-Career Research Award 20 40 60 80
B-3 Research Infrastructure 500 500 500 500
B-4 High-Risk Research 0 0 0 0
B-5 ARPA-Energy 300 500 700 900
B-6 Presidential Innovation Award 50 50 50 50
Total (Research) 1670 2790 4010 5430
C-1 Undergraduate Scholarships 375 750 1125 1500
C-2 Graduate Portable Fellowships 225 450 675 675
C-3 Continuing Educ. Tax Credit 500 500 500 500
C-4 Expedite Visa Processing 0 0 0 0
C-5 Intl Student Work Permits 0 0 0 0
C-6 Skills-Based Immigration Policy 0 0 0 0
Total (Higher Education) 1100 1700 2300 2675
D-1 Intellectual Property Protection 323 323 323 323
D-2 R&D Tax Credit 5100 5100 5100 5100
D-3 Innovation Tax Incentives Study 0 0 0 0
D-4 Ubiquitous Broadband Internet 0 0 0 0
Total (Incentives for Innovation) 5423 5423 5423 5423
2007 2008 2009 2010
Grand Total (Billions of Dollars) 8.6 10.7 13 15.2
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503
APPENDIX E
% of
5-Year Total
Total 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 in 2016
6007 2071 2091 2091 2091 2091 10.5
20750 8250 9650 9650 9650 9650 48.6
10450 2675 2675 2675 2675 2675 13.5
27115 5423 5423 5423 5423 5423 27.3
64322 18419 19839 19839 19839 19839 99.9
5-Year
2011 Total 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
965 2735 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040
120 480 120 120 120 120 120
290 810 310 330 330 330 330
400 1307 400 400 400 400 400
20 100 20 20 20 20 20
181 575 181 181 181 181 181
1976 6007 2071 2091 2091 2091 2091
5200 14300 6600 8000 8000 8000 8000
100 300 100 100 100 100 100
500 2500 500 500 500 500 500
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1000 3400 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
50 250 50 50 50 50 50
6850 20750 8250 9650 9650 9650 9650
1500 5250 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500
675 2700 675 675 675 675 675
500 2500 500 500 500 500 500
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2675 10450 2675 2675 2675 2675 2675
323 1615 323 323 323 323 323
5100 25500 5100 5100 5100 5100 5100
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5423 27115 5423 5423 5423 5423 5423
2011 10045 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
16.9 64.4 18.4 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8
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504 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM
Action A-1 (Recruit 10,000 Teachers) Detailed Analysis
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010
Millions of Dollars
Scholarships 75 225 450 675
Bonuses 0 0 0 40
Institutional Awards 35 70 100 100
Total 110 295 550 815
Scholarship if $15,000 per Year
Number of Old Students 5000 5000 15000 30000
Number of New Students 10000 15000 15000
Scholarship $ 15000 15000 15000 15000
Total $M 75 225 450 675
Bonuses
Number of Teachers 0 0 0 4000
Bonus $ 0 0 0 10000
Total $M 0 0 0 40
Institutional Matching Grants
Number of Institutions 35 70 100 100
Grant $M 1 1 1 1
Total $M 35 70 100 100
Action A-2a (Summer Institutes) Detailed Analysis
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010
Number of Teachers 16500 33500 50000 50000
Cost per Teacher ($) 2400 2400 2400 2400
Total ($M) 40 80 120 120
Action A-2b (Master’s Program) Detailed Analysis
Year 2007 2008 2009
Number of Programs 100 200 300 400
Students per Program 20 20 20 20
Number of Students/Program 2000 4000 6000 8000
Cost per Student 23000 23000 23000 23000
Cost per Program ($M) 46 92 138 184
Number of Graduates 2000 4000
Cost per Bonus 10000 10000
Bonus Cost ($M) 20 40
Total ($M) 46 92 158 224
Breakdown of Program
Cost ($) (100 students
over a 5-year period)
Course Development 100,000
Administrative Staff Cost 500,000
Tuition 1,500,000
Transportation Reimbursement 150,000
Equipment 50,000
Total $/Student 23,000
NOTE: Program cost estimate based on email from Hai-Lung Dai of the University of
Pennsylvania to Deborah Stine dated December 20, 2005.
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505
APPENDIX E
2011 2012 2013 Steady State
825 900 900 900
40 40 40 40
100 100 100 100
965 1040 1040 1040
45000 55000 60000 60000
10000 5000
15000 15000 15000 15000
825 900 900 900
4000 4000 4000 4000
10000 10000 10000 10000
40 40 40 40
100 100 100 100
1 1 1 1
100 100 100 100
2011 2012 2013 Steady State
50000 50000 50000 50000
2400 2400 2400 2400
120 120 120 120
2010 2011 2012 2013 Steady State
500 500 500 500
20 20 20 20
10000 10000 10000 10000
23000 23000 23000 23000
230 230 230 230
6000 8000 10000 10000
10000 10000 10000 10000
60 80 100 100
290 310 330 330
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506 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM
Action A-2c (AP/IB Teacher Incentive Program) Detailed Analysis
Year 2007 2008 2009
Number of Math and Science AP/IB Teachers 14000 28000 42000
Number Laying the Foundation (LTF) 16000 32000 48000
(Pre-AP/IB) Teachers
Training Fee per Teacher 800 800 800
Total Training Cost ($M) 24 48 72
Stipend Fee/AP/IB Teacher 1800 1800 1800
Total Stipends for AP/IB Teachers ($M) 25 50 76
Stipend Fee/LTF Teacher 1000 1000 1000
Total Stipends for LTF Teachers ($M) 16 32 48
Estimated Number of Passing AP/IB Scores 313500 385000 495000
Teacher Bonus for Passing AP/IB Scores 100 100 100
Total AP/IB Teacher Bonuses ($M) 31 39 50
Estimated Number of Passing LTF Scores 160000 384000 768000
Teacher Bonus for Passing LTF Scores 25 25 25
Total LTF Teacher Bonuses ($M) 4 10 19
Total ($M) 100 179 265
Action A-2d (Curriculum Standards)
Cost: $100 million over 5 years
Action A-3 (AP/IB Student Incentive Program) Detailed Analysis
Year 2007 2008
Number of Math and Science AP/IB Students 570000 700000
Exam Fee (50% of $82 fee) 41 41
Total AP-IB Exam Fee Cost 23 29
Estimated Number of Passing AP/IB Scores 313500 385000
Student Mini-Scholarship for Passing AP/IB Scores 100 100
Total Mini-Scholarships 31 39
Number of Pre-AP/IB Students Taking Test 640000 1280000
Exam Fee (50% of $20 fee) 10 10
Total Pre-AP/IB Exam Fee Cost 6 13
Total ($M) 60 81
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507
APPENDIX E
2010 2011 2012 2013 Steady State
56000 56000 56000 56000 56000
64000 64000 64000 64000 64000
800 800 800 800 800
96 96 96 96 96
1800 1800 1800 1800 1800
101 101 101 101 101
1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
64 64 64 64 64
700000 870000 870000 870000 870000
100 100 100 100 100
70 87 87 87 87
1280000 2080000 2080000 2080000 2080000
25 25 25 25 25
32 52 52 52 52
363 400 400 400 400
2009 2010 2011 2012 Steady State
900000 1250000 1500000 1500000 1500000
41 41 41 41 41
37 51 62 62 62
495000 700000 870000 870000 870000
100 100 100 100 100
50 70 87 87 87
1920000 2560000 3200000 3200000 3200000
10 10 10 10 10
19 26 32 32 32
106 147 181 181 181
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508 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM
Action B-1 (Research Funding) Detailed Analysis: The base for this cost estimate was
determined using information from the following National Science Foundation (NSF)
publication: Federal Funds for Research and Development: Fiscal Years 2002, 2003, and
2004 (Publication No: NSF 05-307), which identifies the amount of basic research funding,
by agency, in the physical sciences, mathematics, computer sciences, and engineering. (FY
2004 is the most recent year this information is available.) This is summarized in the table
below:
Preliminary federal obligations for basic research in the physical sciences, mathematics,
computer sciences, and engineering, by agency, FY 2004a
Funding Percent
AGENCY (Billions) of Total
All agencies $7.4
Department of Defense $1.1 15%
Department of Energy $2.1 28%
NASA $1.5 21%
NSF $1.9 26%
aOther agencies which fund these areas are Department of Commerce, Department of Health
and Human Services (HHS), US Department of Agriculture, Department of Homeland Secu-
rity, Department of Interior, Veteran’s Administration, and Environmental Protection Agency.
HHS is largest at 6%; remainder at 1% or less for a total of 10%.
SOURCE: National Science Foundation. Federal Funds for Research and Development: Fiscal
Years 2002, 2003, and 2004. NSF 05-307. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation, 2005.
The committee also proposed that all of DOD basic research funding be increased. The
following number provides the amount of DOD basic research funding included and not
included in the table above (i.e., not in the research fields identified):
DOD Basic Research Funding (including above): $1.6 billion
(not including above): $0.5 billion
This provides a total base: $7.9 billion ($7.4B + $0.5B), which is that increased at a rate of
10% per year over the next 7 years as indicated in the recommendation.
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millions 800 1700 2700 3900 5200 6600 8000
of Dollars
Action B-2 (Early-Career Research Grants) Detailed Analysis: As with the scholarship
programs, this estimate gradually increases over time as the $500,000 research grants are
payable over 5 years.
Steady
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 State
#Previous Researchers 200 400 600 800
#New Researchers 200 200 200 200 200
Research $ 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000
Total $M 20 40 60 80 100
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509
APPENDIX E
Action B-3 (Advanced Research Instrumentation and Facilities) Detailed Analysis: This
proposed action indicates that the funding will be $500 million per year for the next 5 years.
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Millions of Dollars 500 500 500 500 500
Action B-4 (High-Risk Research) Detailed Analysis: No new funds required for this
action—just a specification that 8% of existing funds will be directed toward high-risk
research.
Action B-5 (ARPA-E) Detailed Analysis: This recommendation indicates that ARPA-E will
be funded at $300 million per year, gradually increasing over 5-6 years to $1 billion per year
at which time it would be evaluated.
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Millions 300 500 700 900 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
of Dollars
Action B-6 (Presidential Innovation Award) Detailed Analysis: This program for a Presiden-
tial Innovation award would not require a monetary award, but one may be provided as
indicated here.
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Millions 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
of Dollars
Action C-1 (Undergraduate Scholarships) Detailed Analysis: The committee recommends
that up to $20,000/year be provided for scholarships. This analysis focuses on the mid-
range scholarship of $15,000/year. This allows the amount of the scholarship to vary
relative to an institution’s tuition. Because scholarship programs provide funding for a
number of years, this program will take several years to reach steady state (when the
number of new students entering is equal to the number of old students graduating and no
longer receiving a scholarship).
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 Steady State
#Old Students 25000 50000 75000 100000
#New Students 25000 25000 25000 25000
Scholarship $ 15000 15000 15000 15000 15000
Total $M 375 750 1125 1500 1500
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510 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM
Action C-2 (Graduate Fellowships) Detailed Analysis: As with the undergraduate scholar-
ships, the committee recommends that up to $20,000/year be provided for fellowships. This
analysis focuses on the mid-range fellowship of $15,000/year. This allows the amount of
the fellowship to vary relative to an institution’s tuition. Because fellowship programs
provide funding for a number of years, this program will take several years to reach steady
state. This program also provides a stipend for the graduate student at $30,000/year.
Year 2007 2008 2009 Steady State
#Old Students 5000 10000 15000
#New students 5000 5000 5000
Fellowship $ 15000 15000 15000 15000
Stipend $ 30000 30000 30000 30000
Total $M 225 450 675 675
Action C-3 (Continuing Education) Detailed Analysis: Based on a similar existing credit, the
budget for this action is assumed to be $500 million per year. Education tax credits are
available to individual families to help defray the cost of college. According to the College
Board, the federal government provided $81.5 billion in student aid during 2003-2004. This
can be roughly disaggregated as follows: 70% loans, 21% grants, 8% tax benefits. The tax
benefits (Hope and Lifetime Learning Credits) amounted to approximately $6.3 billion. The
$500 million the committee proposes is a modest amount in this context designed to spur
corporate sponsorship of continuing education. The cap on tax credits could be increased
over time or even lifted altogether. The following Web page provides an overview of existing
tax credits: http://www.ed.gov/offices/OPE/PPI/HOPE/index.html.
Actions C-4 to C-7 (International Students and Scholars) Detailed Analysis: These are
assumed to have no major cost as they involve only a policy change.
Action D-1 (Enhance Intellectual Property Protection) Detailed Analysis: The base amount
for this estimate is the FY 2006 request for the US Patent and Trademark Office which was
$1.7 billion, a 10% increase from FY 2005. The proposed $340 million per year, reflects a
20% increase in FY 2007 in order to institute a post-grant review system and enhance other
capabilities aimed at increasing the quality and timeliness of patent examinations. The other
proposed changes do not require funding.
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340
of Dollars
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511
APPENDIX E
Action D-2 (Strengthen the R&D Tax Credit) Detailed Analysis: Tax credits vary from year
to year. In FY 2005 the R&D tax credit was forecast to cost $5.1 billion. Since the amount
of the R&D tax credit in any given year depends on overall corporate profitability and tax
liability, as well as on R&D spending decisions, the overall cost cannot be determined
precisely in advance. Maintaining the existing R&D tax credit, therefore, is assumed to
result in no incremental cost. The proposed doubling of the existing R&D tax credit is
assumed to cost about the same as the existing R&D tax credit, but the actual increment
could be larger or smaller. In addition, the proposed expansion of the number of companies
eligible for the R&D tax credit is not reflected in the $5.1 billion figure as the number of
companies who might potentially be involved is unknown.
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions 5100 5100 5100 5100 5100 5100 5100 5100
of Dollars
Action D-3 (Innovation Tax Incentive Study) Detailed Analysis: The proposed studies
should be able to be performed within existing budgets.
Action D-4 (Ubiquitous Broadband Internet) Detailed Analysis: The most important steps
would not necessarily entail federal outlays.
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
national bureau
