LINKAGES

MANUFACTURING TRENDS IN ELECTRONIC INTERCONNECTION TECHNOLOGY

Committee on Manufacturing Trends in Printed Circuit Technology

Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Linkages: Manufacturing Trends in Electronic Interconnection Technology LINKAGES MANUFACTURING TRENDS IN ELECTRONIC INTERCONNECTION TECHNOLOGY Committee on Manufacturing Trends in Printed Circuit Technology Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Linkages: Manufacturing Trends in Electronic Interconnection Technology THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. N00014-00-G-0230 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-10034-8 Available in limited quantities from the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001, bmed@nas.edu, http://www.nationalacademies.edu/bmed. Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Linkages: Manufacturing Trends in Electronic Interconnection Technology THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Linkages: Manufacturing Trends in Electronic Interconnection Technology COMMITTEE ON MANUFACTURING TRENDS IN PRINTED CIRCUIT TECHNOLOGY DAVID J. BERTEAU, Chair, Clark and Weinstock KATHARINE G. FRASE, IBM Microelectronics CHARLES R. HENRY, U.S. Department of Defense (retired) JOSEPH LaDOU, University of California, San Francisco KATHY NARGI-TOTH, Technic, Inc. ANGELO M. NINIVAGGI, JR., Plexus Corporation MICHAEL G. PECHT, University of Maryland E. JENNINGS TAYLOR, Faraday Technology, Inc. RICHARD H. VAN ATTA, Institute for Defense Analyses ALFONSO VELOSA III, Gartner, Inc. DENNIS F. WILKIE, Compass Group, Ltd. Staff TONI MARECHAUX, Study Director MARTA VORNBROCK, Research Assistant LAURA TOTH, Senior Program Assistant

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Linkages: Manufacturing Trends in Electronic Interconnection Technology BOARD ON MANUFACTURING AND ENGINEERING DESIGN PAMELA A. DREW, Chair, The Boeing Company CAROL L.J. ADKINS, Sandia National Laboratories GREGORY AUNER, Wayne State University RON BLACKWELL, AFL-CIO THOMAS W. EAGAR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ROBERT E. FONTANA, JR., Hitachi Global Storage Technologies PAUL B. GERMERAAD, Intellectual Assets, Inc. TOM HARTWICK, Adviser, Snohomish, Washington ROBERT M. HATHAWAY, Oshkosh Truck Corporation PRADEEP K. KHOSLA, Carnegie Mellon University JAY LEE, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee DIANA L. LONG, Consultant, Charleston, West Virginia MANISH MEHTA, National Center for Manufacturing Sciences NABIL Z. NASR, Rochester Institute of Technology ANGELO M. NINIVAGGI, JR., Plexus Corporation JAMES B. O’DWYER, PPG Industries HERSCHEL H. REESE, Dow Corning Corporation H.M. REININGA, Rockwell Collins, Inc. LAWRENCE J. RHOADES, Ex One Corporation JAMES B. RICE, JR., Massachusetts Institute of Technology DENISE F. SWINK, Adviser, Germantown, Maryland ALFONSO VELOSA III, Gartner, Inc. BEVLEE A. WATFORD, Virginia Polytechnic University JACK WHITE, Altarum Staff TONI MARECHAUX, Director

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Linkages: Manufacturing Trends in Electronic Interconnection Technology Preface Today’s defense systems incorporate an increasing number of electronic components, intended to enable these systems to be more accurate, more sophisticated, and more effective. Advances in printed circuits and associated interconnection—an integral technology—have enabled this trend, and these advances are expected to continue to enable future combat systems. To examine a number of issues surrounding the manufacturing and supply of these components, the National Research Council convened a panel of experts—the Committee on Manufacturing Trends in Printed Circuit Technology—to examine trends in electronics interconnection technology and manufacturing and their effect on U.S. defense needs. The charge to the committee was specifically to do the following: Examine worldwide and U.S. trends in technology investment and manufacturing competences for printed circuit boards. Assess the role of printed circuit boards in maintaining U.S. military capability, especially in meeting unique defense needs. Examine current laws, policies, and regulations that pertain to printed circuit board manufacturing and their impact on maintaining future military capability. Describe potential strategies for research, development, and manufacturing for printed circuit boards to meet both legacy and future U.S. defense needs. A meeting was held December 13 and 14, 2004, attended by committee members, expert consultants, and Department of Defense (DoD) representatives. Technical topics were presented and discussed covering the general areas of system considerations, the suitability of current supply practices, the influence of new technologies, and technology insertion. DoD representatives provided a useful overview and rationale to set the stage for the discussions. Formal presentations were brief in order to allow for significant interactions between committee members and guests to home in on responses to the tasks listed above. After the meeting, the committee continued to gather information and to discuss and deliberate on findings, conclusions, and recommendations. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Doug Freitag, Bayside Materials Technology; Steven P. Gootee, SAIC; Carol Handwerker, Purdue University; R. Wayne Johnson, Auburn University; Paul G. Kaminski, Technovation, Inc.; Robert Pfahl, iNEMI; Joe Schmidt, Raytheon; and Frank Talke, University of California, San Diego.

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Linkages: Manufacturing Trends in Electronic Interconnection Technology Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Elsa Garmire, Dartmouth College. Appointed by the National Research Council, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. The committee also acknowledges the speakers from government and industry who took the time to share their ideas and experiences. H.M. Reininga, Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design liaison to the committee, also greatly assisted the work of the committee through his participation in many of the committee’s activities. Finally, the committee acknowledges the contributions to the completion of this report from the staff of the National Research Council, including Marta Vornbrock, Laura Toth, and Toni Marechaux, as well as those of Albert Alla, an intern at the National Research Council who assisted in background research for the report. David J. Berteau, Chair Committee on Manufacturing Trends in Printed Circuit Technology

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Linkages: Manufacturing Trends in Electronic Interconnection Technology Contents     SUMMARY   1 1   BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW   5      Board Materials,   6      Board Design,   7      Manufacturing Trends,   7      Evolving Role of PrCBs,   10 2   THE PRINTED CIRCUIT TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY   11      Industry Overview,   11      Size of Market, Capacity, and Companies,   11      The Global Nature of the Industry,   13      High-Performance-Board Production,   15      Suppliers to the PrCB Industry,   16      Materials and Chemistry,   18      Equipment,   18      Business Climate for Printed Circuit Technology Manufacturing,   19      Cost of Compliance with Regulations,   19      Challenges in Supply-Chain Management,   21      Cost of a Skilled Workforce,   22      Challenges in Innovation,   22      Key Findings and Conclusions,   23 3   MILITARY NEEDS FOR PRINTED CIRCUIT TECHNOLOGY   24      Defense Requirements,   24      Demands on Technology,   25      Demands on Supply Chains,   27      Demands on Assurance,   27      Defense Manufacturing Environment for Printed Circuit Technology,   29      Scoping the Challenge,   31      Risk and Sustainment,   32      The Defense Industrial Base,   33      Buying American,   35      Global Companies and Their Complexities,   36      Policy Implications for PrCBs,   36      Foreign Sources, Foreign Sales,   37

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Linkages: Manufacturing Trends in Electronic Interconnection Technology      Trusted Sources,   38      Conflicting Requirements,   40      Key Findings and Conclusions,   42 4   PRINTED CIRCUIT TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT   43      Whither New Technology?,   44      U.S. Industry Research and Development,   44      Global Research and Development,   45      Technology Concerns,   46      Potential Approaches to Support Technology Innovation,   46      Technology Approaches,   47      Regulatory Approaches,   47      Organizational Approaches,   48      Key Findings and Conclusions,   50 5   A SYSTEMS APPROACH   51      Findings,   51      Considerations,   52      Manufacturing and Globalization,   53      The Separation of Innovation and Manufacturing,   54      Conclusions and Recommendations,   55      A Path Forward,   57     APPENDIXES         A  Committee Members   61     B  Selected Abbreviations and Acronyms   64     C  Agenda of the Workshop on Manufacturing Trends for Printed Circuit Technology   66     D  Workshop Attendees   68     E  Lead-Free Electronics   70     F  Sample Fabrication Sequence for a Standard Printed Circuit Board   77

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Linkages: Manufacturing Trends in Electronic Interconnection Technology Tables, Figures, and Box TABLES 2-1   Dollar Value of Printed Circuit Board Production by Global Region in 2003,   12 2-2   Number of Independent U.S. Companies Manufacturing Rigid PrCBs, 1995, 2000, and 2003,   13 2-3   Annual Sales for Top Ten Companies in Printed Circuit Industry, 2000 and 2003,   14 2-4   Companies Qualified to Supply U.S. Military Needs Under MIL-PRF-31032,   17 3-1   Technology Assessment for Different Military System Time Frames,   28 FIGURES 1-1   An array of printed circuit boards in various sizes, form factors, and materials,   6 3-1   Product and process requirements in a commercial-military integration framework,   25 3-2   A simple risk model,   39 BOX 3-1   The SLQ-32 Electronic Warfare System,   26

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