BASIC RESEARCH IN INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR AIR FORCE NEEDS

Committee on Directions for the AFOSR Mathematics and Space Sciences Directorate Related to Information Science and Technology

Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Basic Research in Information Science and Technology for Air Force Needs BASIC RESEARCH IN INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR AIR FORCE NEEDS Committee on Directions for the AFOSR Mathematics and Space Sciences Directorate Related to Information Science and Technology Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Basic Research in Information Science and Technology for Air Force Needs THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. F1ATA04295M001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-10031-3 Copies of this report are available from The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Basic Research in Information Science and Technology for Air Force Needs THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Basic Research in Information Science and Technology for Air Force Needs COMMITTEE ON DIRECTIONS FOR THE AFOSR MATHEMATICS AND SPACE SCIENCES DIRECTORATE RELATED TO INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ALAN J. McLAUGHLIN, MIT Lincoln Laboratory (retired), Chair RUZENA K. BAJCSY, University of California at Berkeley ELWYN BERLEKAMP, University of California at Berkeley PHILIP A. BERNSTEIN, Microsoft Corporation ROGER W. BROCKETT, Harvard University VINCENT CHAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology STEPHEN CROSS, Georgia Institute of Technology EDWARD FELTEN, Princeton University OSCAR GARCIA, University of North Texas W. DAVID KELTON, University of Cincinnati KLARA NAHRSTEDT, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign PRABHAKAR RAGHAVAN, Yahoo, Inc. RONALD W. SCHAFER, Hewlett-Packard Laboratories Staff SCOTT WEIDMAN, Director, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications BARBARA WRIGHT, Administrative Assistant

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Basic Research in Information Science and Technology for Air Force Needs BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS DAVID W. McLAUGHLIN, New York University, Chair TANYA STYBLO BEDER, Tribeca Investments, LLC PATRICK L. BROCKETT, University of Texas at Austin ARAVINDA CHAKRAVARTI, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine PHILLIP COLELLA, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LAWRENCE CRAIG EVANS, University of California at Berkeley JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University ROBERT KASS, Carnegie Mellon University KATHRYN B. LASKEY, George Mason University C. DAVID LEVERMORE, University of Maryland ROBERT LIPSHUTZ, Affymetrix, Inc. CHARLES M. LUCAS, AIG CHARLES MANSKI, Northwestern University JOYCE McLAUGHLIN, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute PRABHAKAR RAGHAVAN, Yahoo, Inc. STEPHEN M. ROBINSON, University of Wisconsin-Madison EDWARD WEGMAN, George Mason University DETLOF VON WINTERFELDT, University of Southern California Staff SCOTT WEIDMAN, Director BARBARA WRIGHT, Administrative Assistant For more information on BMSA, see its Web site at http://www7.nationalacademies.org/bms/, write to BMSA, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001, call at (202) 334-2421, or e-mail at bmsa@nas.edu.

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Basic Research in Information Science and Technology for Air Force Needs Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: C. William Gear, Princeton University, Eric Horvitz, Microsoft Research, John W. Lyons, U.S. Army Research Laboratory (retired), Debasis Mitra, Bell Laboratories, S. Shankara Sastry, University of California at Berkeley, William Scherlis, Carnegie Mellon University, and Sheila E. Widnall, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William H. Press, Los Alamos National Laboratory. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an inde-

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Basic Research in Information Science and Technology for Air Force Needs pendent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. The committee thanks members of the AFOSR staff of the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Information Directorate; staff of the Air Combat Command; Thomas Cruse, Chief Technologist of the Air Force Research Laboratory; and Shankara Sastry and Janos Sztipanovits of the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board for their helpful discussions and inputs to this study.

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Basic Research in Information Science and Technology for Air Force Needs Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   17 2   BACKGROUND   22      Overview of Air Force Goals That Rely on IS&T Research,   27      The R&D Response: Current Directions,   29 3   BASIC RESEARCH FOR AIR FORCE NETWORK SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATIONS   35      Types and Characteristics of Communication and Network Services Needed in the Future,   35      Technical Challenges Posed by Future Air Force Networks and Communications Systems,   37      Challenges for Future Air Force Communications Systems,   37      Challenges for Future Air Force Networks,   41      Recommended Basic Research Areas in Support of Air Force Networks and Communications,   48      Satellite Communications and Data Networking,   49      Radio Communications and Networking,   50      Free-Space Optical Networks,   51

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Basic Research in Information Science and Technology for Air Force Needs 4   BASIC RESEARCH FOR AIR FORCE SOFTWARE   53      Coevolution of Air Force Concepts of Operations and System Architectures,   55      Software Behavior Envelopes,   58      Evolvability Throughout the Life Cycle,   59 5   BASIC RESEARCH FOR AIR FORCE INFORMATION MANAGEMENT AND INTEGRATION   61      Background,   61      Major Information Management Challenges for Air Force IS&T,   63      Recommended Basic Research in Information Management and Integration,   67 6   BASIC RESEARCH FOR HUMAN INTERACTIONS WITH AIR FORCE IS&T SYSTEMS   71      Challenges Posed by Human Interactions with Air Force IS&T Systems,   72      Scope of the Challenge,   72      Interfaces for Air Force Decision Makers,   74      Machine Learning to Support HSI,   76      Simulation as a Design and Training Tool for HSI,   77      Basic Research Recommendations for HSI for Air Force IS&T Systems,   77 7   PRIORITIES IN BASIC IS&T RESEARCH FOR THE AIR FORCE   80      A Model for Air Force IS&T Basic Research,   80      Recommended Basic Research Priorities in IS&T,   84 8   FUNDING MECHANISMS   87 9   FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS   91      Program Organization,   91      Recruitment of Program Managers,   92      A Mechanism for Fostering Experimental Research in IS&T,   93     APPENDIXES         A   Meeting Agendas   101     B   Acronyms   105