remains to be done to learn how to include and, as much as possible, formalize social concerns in design and to make the triple bottom line (economic, environmental, and social) the normative goal.
One of the most important geoengineering approaches to Earth systems analysis and design will be adaptive management (see Sidebar 4.4). For example, one of the largest current GES projects in the world is the rehabilitation of the Everglades. Adaptive management is a large part of this program (NRC, 2003d). In adaptive management, mitigation is designed, the outcome predicted, and then the outcome following a specific action is measured. Once the measurements are in hand, the predictions are compared to the measurement in order to determine if the engineering approach should be modified. This is philosophically much easier to describe than it is to do. In practice, it is extremely hard to know what to predict, what to measure, and how to compare these two types of quantities. NSF should invest in research to develop the techniques for integrating measurements with model predictions for adaptive management to update Earth systems models, especially for urban, regional, and global applications. This research should include the development of sustainability indicators and the use of these in evaluating the effect of engineering measures.
If Chapter 3 presented an exciting vision for a new way to tackle geoengineering problems, this chapter has put those problems in a new global systems context. This new context will force geoengineers to think and act differently and to approach their work as part of a system that has social, environmental, and economic components. Geoengineers clearly have a crucial role in sustainability and ESE, which NSF, universities, and industry can begin to foster. The institutional needs required by the vision presented in Chapters 3 and 4 are described in Chapter 5.