component-by-component projections of costs and development schedules. The report does not discuss the driving forces that would be necessary to bring about the projected conversion, but presumably the committee postulated the carrying out of a large-scale and successful industry research and development program, with strong government financial or regulatory incentives for research and sales.
One of the study’s major findings is that “these impacts [of hydrogen-fueled light-duty vehicles] are likely to be minor for the next 25 years” (NRC 2004). If the projection is taken as an upper bound, it indicates that the highest plausible market share of fuel cell vehicles in 2030 will be 20 percent of vehicle miles of travel. However, the projection suggests that rapid growth after 2030 is conceivable.
CARB California Air Resources Board
EIA Energy Information Administration
NRC National Research Council
SMP Sustainable Mobility Project
Birky, A., D. Greene, T. Gross, D. Hamilton, K. Heitner, L. Johnson, J. Maples, J. Moore, P. Patterson, S. Plotkin, and F. Stodolsky. 2001. Future U.S. Highway Energy Use: A Fifty Year Perspective: Draft. Office of Transportation Technologies, U.S. Department of Energy, May 3.
Cambridge Systematics. 2004. Assessing and Mitigating Future Impacts to the Federal Highway TrustFund such as Alternative Fuel Consumption. National Cooperative Highway Research Program.
CARB. 2004. Draft: Staff Proposal Regarding the Maximum Feasible and Cost-Effective Reduction ofGreenhouse Gas Emissions from Motor Vehicles. California Environmental Protection Agency, June 14.
EIA. 2005a. Annual Energy Outlook 2005 with Projections to 2025. U.S. Department of Energy, Feb.
EIA. 2005b. Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Early Release. U.S. Department of Energy, Dec.
NRC. 2002. Effectiveness and Impact of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards. National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
NRC. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
SMP. 2004. Mobility 2030: Meeting the Challenges to Sustainability. World Business Council for Sustainable Development.