Testing of Defense Systems
in an
Evolutionary Acquisition Environment

Oversight Committee for the Workshop on Testing for Dynamic Acquisition of Defense Systems

Vijay Nair and Michael L. Cohen, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment Oversight Committee for the Workshop on Testing for Dynamic Acquisition of Defense Systems Vijay Nair and Michael L. Cohen, Editors Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study is supported by a contract between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation (Number SBR-0112521). The work of the Committee on National Statistics is also provided by a consortium of federal agencies through the same grant from the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-10135-2 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Printed in the United States of America. Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2006). Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment. Oversight Committee for the Workshop on Testing for Dynamic Acquisition of Defense Systems. Vijay Nair and Michael L. Cohen, editors. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON TESTING FOR DYNAMIC ACQUISITION OF DEFENSE SYSTEMS VIJAY NAIR (Chair), Department of Statistics and Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor SETH BONDER, The Bonder Group, Ann Arbor, MI JOHN D. CHRISTIE, Logistics Management Institute, Alexandria, VA ARTHUR FRIES, Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria, VA STEPHEN POLLOCK, Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor JESSE H. POORE, Department of Computer Science, University of Tennessee, Knoxville MICHAEL L. COHEN, Study Director MICHAEL SIRI, Senior Program Assistant

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Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2004-2005 WILLIAM F. EDDY (Chair), Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University KATHARINE ABRAHAM, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology ROBERT BELL, AT&T Research Laboratories, Florham Park, NJ LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania ROBERT M. GROVES, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology JOHN HALTIWANGER, Department of Economics, University of Maryland PAUL W. HOLLAND, Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ JOEL L. HOROWITZ, Department of Economics, Northwestern University DOUGLAS MASSEY, Department of Sociology, Princeton University VIJAY NAIR, Department of Statistics and Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan DARYL PREGIBON, Google, Inc., New York SAMUEL PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania KENNETH PREWITT, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University LOUISE RYAN, Department of Biostatistics, Harvard University NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin–Madison CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director

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Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment Preface The Oversight Committee for the Workshop on Testing for Dynamic Acquisition of Defense Systems, formed under the Committee on National Statistics, is grateful to the many individuals that contributed to our work. First, we are greatly indebted to both Thomas Christie, former director, operation test and evaluation, and to Michael Wynne, secretary of the Air Force and former acting under secretary of defense (acquisition, technology and logistics) for providing the financial support for this study. The panel is also greatly indebted to Ernest Seglie, science advisor to the director of operational test and evaluation, and to Nancy Spruill, director, acquisition resources and analysis, for providing continuous assistance both intellectually and administratively that was invaluable for the success of our work. In addition, Bill Keegan and Bob Williams in the Office of the Secretary of Defense were very helpful in assisting in the framing of our work. All of the invited speakers to the workshop worked hard and provided very important information on the history of evolutionary acquisition, on best practices in industrial system development, and on the defense system milestone process. The speakers are listed in Appendix D. Of these, we would like to thank in particular Thomas Christie; Philip Coyle, Center for Defense Information; Tim Davis, Ford Motor Company; Donald Gaver, Naval Postgraduate School; David Kelly, Battelle; Art Koehler, Procter & Gamble; Katherine Schinasi, U.S. Government Accountability Office; Steve Vardeman, Iowa State University; Alyson Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory; and Michael Wynne.

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Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment The participants were also very helpful in generating extremely productive floor discussions. In particular, we would like to thank David Maddox for extremely insightful remarks. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Donald A. Berry, Department of Biostatistics and Applied Mathematics, The University of Texas, Houston; Paul K. Davis, Defense Strategy, RAND Corporation; Timothy P. Davis, Henry Ford Technical Fellow for Quality Engineering, Ford Motor Company; Michael C. Dieckhoff, Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Center, Albuquerque; Robert Easterling, Consultant, New Mexico; David M. Maddox, Consultant, Arlington, Virginia; Ronald Manning, Raytheon, Dallas; Daryl Pregibon, Google, Inc., New York; and Stephen B. Vardeman, Statistics and IMSE Departments, Iowa State University. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Thom J. Hodgson, Industrial Engineering Department, North Carolina State University. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. In the preparation of the report, we would like to thank Michael Siri, for making all the arrangements, formatting the final report, and overall stewardship of the administrative side of the study. Christine McShane expertly served as technical editor, substantially improving the report’s readability. Connie Citro, director of the Committee on National Statistics, and Tom Plewes, staff officer for the committee, were helpful as usual in providing guidance and support whenever needed.

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Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment Finally, we would like to thank the oversight committee for their collegiality and readiness to help in all phases of the study. It was a great pleasure working together to produce this report. Vijay Nair, Chair Michael L. Cohen, Study Director Oversight Committee for the Workshop on Testing for Dynamic Acquisition of Defense Systems

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Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   9      Evolutionary Acquisition: Definition and Rationale,   9      Goals of the Report,   11      Organization of the Report,   13 2   TESTING AND EVALUATION IN AN EVOLUTIONARY ACQUISITION ENVIRONMENT   14      Continuous Process of Testing, Learning, and Improving Systems,   14      Testing Outside the Envelope,   16      Developmental and Operational Testing,   20      DoD’s Role in System Design and Development and Interaction with Contractors,   20      Ensuring Maturity of New Technology,   22      Comparison with Baseline Systems in Evolutionary Acquisition,   24      Operational Testing of Very Complex Defense Systems,   25

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Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment 3   COMBINING INFORMATION IN STAGED DEVELOPMENT   28      Test Design,   28      Analysis,   30      Modeling and Simulation,   31      Software Development in an Evolutionary Context,   33 4   CHANGES TO INFRASTRUCTURE, PROCESS, AND CULTURE IN SUPPORT OF EVOLUTIONARY ACQUISITION   34      Technical Expertise,   34      Data Archiving,   35      Terminology and Documentation,   37      Process and Culture in DoD,   39     REFERENCES   42     APPENDIXES     A   Overview of the Current Milestone Development Process   45 B   Combining Information for Test Design with Staged Development   48 C   Software Development in Evolutionary Acquisition   52 D   Workshop Agenda and Attendees   56 E   Biographical Sketches of Oversight Committee and Staff   61