TRENDS IN OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR PEAKING OF CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION, AND POSSIBLE MITIGATION OPTIONS

A Summary Report of the Workshop

James Zucchetto

National Research Council

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop TRENDS IN OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR PEAKING OF CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION, AND POSSIBLE MITIGATION OPTIONS A Summary Report of the Workshop James Zucchetto National Research Council Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Support for this project was provided under Contract No. DE-AT01-05FE68970 between the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Academy of Sciences. Any views expressed in this publication are those of the workshop participants and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number: 0-309-10143-3 Available in limited supply from: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Keck W934 Washington, DC 20001 202-334-3344 Additional copies are available for sale from: The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Lockbox 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop PLANNING GROUP FOR THE WORKSHOP ON TRENDS IN OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PEAKING OF CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, NAE, Chair, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey DAVID GREENE, Oak Ridge National Laboratories, Tennessee ROBERT L. HIRSCH, Science Applications International Corporation, Alexandria, Virginia SCOTT W. TINKER, University of Texas, Austin Project Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES) PANOLA GOLSON, Program Associate (BEES)

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Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN, NAE,1 Chair, MPR Associates, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia ROBERT W. FRI, Vice Chair, Resources for the Future (senior fellow emeritus), Washington, D.C. RAKESH AGRAWAL, NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana ALLEN J. BARD, NAS,2 University of Texas, Austin DAVID L. BODDE, Clemson University, South Carolina PHILIP R. CLARK, NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Boonton, New Jersey MICHAEL L. CORRADINI, NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison E. LINN DRAPER, JR., NAE, American Electric Power, Inc. (emeritus), Austin, Texas CHARLES GOODMAN, Southern Company, Birmingham, Alabama DAVID G. HAWKINS, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C. MARTHA A. KREBS, California Energy Commission, Sacramento DAVID K. OWENS, Edison Electric Institute, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM F. POWERS, NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Ann Arbor, Michigan TONY PROPHET, Carrier Corporation, Farmington, Connecticut MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey MAXINE SAVITZ, NAE, Honeywell, Inc. (retired), Los Angeles, California PHILIP R. SHARP, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts SCOTT W. TINKER, University of Texas, Austin Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director DUNCAN BROWN, Senior Program Officer (part time) ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer MARTIN OFFUTT, Senior Program Officer DANA CAINES, Financial Associate PANOLA GOLSON, Project Assistant 1   NAE, National Academy of Engineering. 2   NAS, National Academy of Sciences.

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Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop Preface The Workshop Planning Group, the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, and the National Research Council (NRC) staff wish to thank all of the presenters at the workshop. They all gave very well-focused, professional, and substantive talks and adhered to the guidance provided by the planning group so that everyone had sufficient time to express their individual views and opinions at the workshop. The workshop was open to the public, and there was active discussion during the full two days. Many participants noted the interesting presentations and discussions and remarked on the importance and timeliness of the subject. The workshop was motivated by recent publications and analyses indicating that global production of conventional oil might peak within the next decade or so, and in some instances projections indicated that this peaking might occur within a few years, with potentially significant global economic disruptions. They were in sharp contrast to many other analyses that oil supply could meet global demand for some decades into the future and that any potential oil peaking was much further off in the future. Given the importance of the subject, the National Academies, through its Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, sought funding for a workshop that could bring together analysts with different points of view and begin a dialogue on the subject. The U.S. Department of Energy provided funding to support the workshop. This workshop summary identifies key issues and questions raised by individuals at the workshop and possible follow-on studies that would be important to undertake. This summary does not include any consensus of the participants or the planning group, does not contain any conclusions or recommendations, does not contain advice to the government, and does not represent a viewpoint of the National Academies or any of its constituent units. It also does not prioritize the ideas and suggestions that were generated. No priorities are implied by the order in which ideas are presented. The workshop summary was reviewed in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee and was reviewed in draft form by David Gray, Mitretek Systems; David L. Greene, Oak Ridge National Laboratories; John Heywood (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology; John E. Johnston, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering (retired); Daniel Rose, University of Pennsylvania (emeritus); Daniel Sperling, University of California, Davis; and Scott Tinker, University of Texas, Austin.

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Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the workshop summary before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Trevor O. Jones (NAE), Biomec, Inc. Their effort in this task was much appreciated. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the NRC and the author.

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Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop Contents WORKSHOP SUMMARY         Introduction,   3     Setting the Stage,   5     Future Global Oil Supply and Demand Balance,   8     Mitigation Options and Time to Implementation,   12     Potential Follow-up Studies,   17 APPENDIXES     A   Statement of Task,   25 B   Workshop Agenda,   26 C   Individually Authored Summaries of Presentations,   29 D   Biographical Sketches,   48

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