Reducing U.S. light-duty vehicles fleet fuel consumption substantially below the no-change continuing growth projection will take decades. Realizing as much as possible of the efficiency improvements that technology is likely to provide (especially with mainstream gasoline ICE vehicles) in on-the-road fuel consumption is critical to achieving real-world reductions in fleet petroleum consumption. Delays in realizing such on-the-road fuel consumption improvements would make future petroleum demand significantly higher. Due to constraints on the rate of buildup of new production capacity, low-emission diesels and hybrids will have only modest fleet improvement potential before about 2025.

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