Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure

PROTECTING PEOPLE AND REDUCING VULNERABILITIES

Committee on Assessing Vulnerabilities Related to the Nation’s Chemical Infrastructure

Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Transportation Research Board

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure PROTECTING PEOPLE AND REDUCING VULNERABILITIES Committee on Assessing Vulnerabilities Related to the Nation’s Chemical Infrastructure Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology Division on Earth and Life Studies Transportation Research Board NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this study was provided by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under contract number HSHQPA-04-C-00010. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09721-5 Additional copies of this report are available from: The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 (800) 624-6242 (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Cover illustrations: PhotoDisc; Corbis. Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities This page intentionally left blank.

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities COMMITTEE ON ASSESSING VULNERABILITIES RELATED TO THE NATION’S CHEMICAL INFRASTRUCTURE LINDA CAPUANO, Solectron Corporation, Chair LISA M. BENDIXEN, ICF Consulting ANTHONY J. FINIZZA, University of California, Irvine DENNIS C. HENDERSHOT, Chilworth Technology, Inc. ROBERT L. HIRSCH, Science Applications International Corporation BARRY M. HOROWITZ, University of Virginia WILLIAM R. KOCH, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. HOWARD C. KUNREUTHER, University of Pennsylvania MICHAEL K. LINDELL, Texas A&M University GERALD V. POJE, Independent Consultant DONALD PROSNITZ, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory HAVIDAN RODRIGUEZ, University of Delaware PETER H. SPITZ, Chemical Advisory Partners Staff CHRISTOPHER K. MURPHY, Program Officer (until July 2005) ERICKA M. MCGOWAN, Research Associate DAVID C. RASMUSSEN, Program Assistant DOROTHY ZOLANDZ, Director, Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology THOMAS MENZIES, Senior Program Officer, Transportation Research Board

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities BOARD ON CHEMICAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY CHAIRS A. WELFORD CASTLEMAN, JR. (NAS), Pennsylvania State University ELSA REICHMANIS (NAE), Lucent Technologies Members PAUL T. ANASTAS, Green Chemistry Institute DENISE M. BARNES, Independent Consultant, Snellville, Georgia MARK E. DAVIS, California Institute of Technology JEAN DE GRAEVE, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium MILES P. DRAKE, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. CATHERINE C. FENSELAU, University of Maryland GEORGE W. FLYNN, Columbia University MAURICIO FUTRAN, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company ROBERT HWANG, Sandia National Laboratory JAY V. IHLENFELD, 3M Research & Development JAMES L. KINSEY, Rice University MARTHA A. KREBS, California Energy Commission WILLIAM A. LESTER, JR., University of California, Berkeley GREGORY O. NELSON, Eastman Chemical Company GERALD V. POJE, Independent Consultant, Vienna, VA DONALD PROSNITZ, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory MATTHEW V. TIRRELL, University of California, Santa Barbara NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF TINA M. MASCIANGIOLI, Program Officer ERICKA M. MCGOWAN, Research Associate SYBIL A. PAIGE, Administrative Associate DAVID C. RASMUSSEN, Project Assistant FEDERICO SAN MARTINI, Associate Program Officer DOROTHY ZOLANDZ, Director

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2005 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE* JOHN R. NJORD, Utah Department of Transportation, Chair MICHAEL D. MEYER, Georgia Institute of Technology, Vice Chair ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR., Transportation Research Board, Executive Director MICHAEL W. BEHRENS, Texas Department of Transportation ALLEN D. BIEHLER, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation LARRY L. BROWN, SR., Mississippi Department of Transportation DEBORAH H. BUTLER, Norfolk Southern Corporation and Subsidiaries ANNE P. CANBY, Surface Transportation Policy Project JOHN L. CRAIG, Nebraska Department of Roads DOUGLAS G. DUNCAN, FedEx Freight, Memphis NICHOLAS J. GARBER, University of Virginia, Charlottesville ANGELA GITTENS, Consultant GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, Metrans Transportation Center, (Past Chair, 2003) BERNARD S. GROSECLOSE, JR., South Carolina State Ports Authority SUSAN HANSON, Clark University JAMES R. HERTWIG, CSX Intermodal GLORIA J. JEFF, Michigan Department of Transportation ADIB K. KANAFANI, University of California, Berkeley HERBERT S. LEVINSON, Herbert S. Levinson Transportation Consultant SUE MCNEIL, Urban Transportation Center, University of Illinois MICHAEL MORRIS, North Central Texas Council of Governments CAROL A. MURRAY, New Hampshire Department of Transportation PHILIP A. SHUCET, Virginia Department of Transportation MICHAEL S. TOWNES, Hampton Roads Transit (Past Chair, 2004) C. MICHAEL WALTON, University of Texas, Austin LINDA S. WATSON, LYNX—Central Florida Regional Transportation Authority MARION C. BLAKEY, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) JOSEPH H. BOARDMAN, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) REBECCA M. BREWSTER, American Transportation Research Institute (ex officio) GEORGE BUGLIARELLO, Polytechnic University; National Academy of Engineering (ex officio)

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities THOMAS H. COLLINS (Admiral), U.S. Coast Guard (ex officio) JENNIFER L. DORN, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) JAMES J. EBERHARDT, U.S. Department of Energy (ex officio) STACEY L. GERARD, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) EDWARD R. HAMBERGER, Association of American Railroads (ex officio) JOHN C. HORSLEY, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (ex officio) EDWARD JOHNSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ex officio) RICK KOWALEWSKI, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) WILLIAM W. MILLAR, American Public Transportation Association (ex officio) (Past Chair, 1992) MARY E. PETERS, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) ERIC C. PETERSON, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) SUZANNE RUDZINSKI, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ex officio) JEFFREY W. RUNGE, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) ANNETTE M. SANDBERG, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) WILLIAM G. SCHUBERT, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) JEFFREY N. SHANE, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) CARL A. STROCK (Major General), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ex officio) *   Membership as of June 2005

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities Preface The Committee on Assessing Vulnerabilities Related to the Nation’s Chemical Infrastructure was convened by the National Academies to respond to a request from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T). The directorate sought assistance in making research, development, and technology investments that would help secure the nation’s chemical infrastructure and safeguard against the consequences of a terrorist attack on that infrastructure. The focus was on securing the nation’s infrastructure and economy against terrorist attack and other catastrophic loss by examining the chemical supply chain to identify key chemicals and chemical processes whose disruption could result in catastrophic levels of casualties or catastrophic economic damage. Specifically, this review considers Major vulnerabilities and points of weakness in the chemical supply chain that could lead to catastrophic consequences; The likely impact of a significant disruption in the supply of these chemicals and processes; Actions (procedures, policies, technology deployment) to help prevent disruption in the supply of these chemicals and processes, and to mitigate loss and injury should such disruption occur; Incentives and disincentives that affect private sector decisions to take preventive and mitigating actions; and

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities Areas of scientific, engineering, and economic research and development that might advance the nation’s capability to protect against such losses and minimize their impact. The committee’s full statement of task can be found in Appendix B. I met with DHS S&T representatives several times early in the study process to discuss the statement of task, data availability, and the department’s objectives in commissioning this study. Based on these discussions and from discussions with DHS representatives at the committee’s first meeting, it was agreed that this study should complement and not attempt to duplicate other ongoing activities such as the DHS Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) and Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Off-Site Consequence Analysis. Thus, the committee did not attempt to assess the effectiveness of current protective measures; although called for in the statement of task; this was a part of the DHS RAMCAP effort, which DHS representatives made clear should not be duplicated. As the statement of task indicates, the focus of this review is on the vulnerabilities of the supply chain as a whole rather than the vulnerability of individual chemical plants. The committee did not have access to the results or preliminary results of the DHS RAMCAP exercise or to the data upon which it is based. Similarly the committee did not have access to EPA’s Off-Site Consequence Analyses. Nor did the committee rely on proprietary or other non-disclosable information from chemical industry representatives upon which to base its report. This report is based solely on open-source information, and the committee’s intention was to write a report whose distribution could be unrestricted. This report represents the dedicated time and effort of all the committee members. The members responded gracefully to the request to submit to a demanding schedule of meetings in a short time period, without compensation and while continuing to attend to the duties of their regular jobs. I am grateful for their work and thoroughly enjoyed the stimulating discussions we had as a part of this process. Linda Capuano Chair

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities POSTSCRIPT ON HURRICANES KATRINA AND RITA This manuscript was being finalized and sent to review as Hurricane Katrina decimated the Gulf Coast and was in reviewers’ hands when Hurricane Rita hit in the first few weeks following that disaster. It is clear that the overall impact of Katrina was catastrophic, although a final casualty figure may never be definitive, and some economic consequences will linger for years. At the time this report was being finalized, the hurricanes’ impact on the petrochemical industry was fairly clear, and the largest ripples in the economy due to their disruption had apparently occurred. These two hurricanes’ effects on petroleum refineries and on the petrochemical industry are real-life examples of the types of disruption that the Department of Homeland Security envisioned when commissioning this report. As such, the hurricanes’ aftermath provides an unfortunate real-life opportunity to learn lessons about the effects of a major disruption in the petroleum supply chain and on the effectiveness of the responses to such an event. It will take years for researchers to fully tally the cost of these two hurricanes, but events thus far are consistent with the conclusions and recommendations of this report regarding the robustness of the chemical supply chain and the importance of emergency preparedness and response. Lessons learned from these hurricanes and the responses to them provide an opportunity to better understand the resilience of the chemical infrastructure and determine potential opportunities for improvement.

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities This page intentionally left blank.

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Cheryl Burke, DuPont Charles Casey, University of Wisconsin Paul K. Davis, The RAND Corporation Robert Gallamore, Northwestern University Yacov Haimes, University of Virginia Steven Kramer, Institute for Defense Analyses M. Sam Mannan, Texas A&M University Guy M. Miller, Heico/Zeeland Chemicals Martin Sherwin (Retired), W.R. Grace Company Ellis Stanley, City of Los Angeles Emergency Preparedness Department

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities Esther S. Takeuchi, Wilson Greatbatch Technologies, Inc. Beth Turner, DuPont Oliver Williamson, University of California, Berkeley Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. R. Stephen Berry, University of Chicago, and Dr. David C. Bonner, Pretium Consulting Services, LLC, Houston, TX. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authors and the institution.

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities Contents     Executive Summary   1 1   Introduction   12 2   The Chemical Sector   18 3   Methodological Approach to Determining Vulnerabilities   29 4   Realistic Chemical Incident Scenarios   38 5   Managing Risk   67 6   Science and Technology Investment to Protect the Nation’s Chemical Infrastructure: Findings and Recommendations   98     Appendixes     A   Historical Scenarios   111 B   Statement of Task   119 C   Committee Membership   121 D   Meetings and Presentations   128 E   Acronyms   131 F   Glossary   133

OCR for page R1
Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities This page intentionally left blank.