Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure
PROTECTING PEOPLE AND REDUCING VULNERABILITIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this study was provided by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under contract number HSHQPA-04-C-00010.
Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE ON ASSESSING VULNERABILITIES RELATED TO THE NATION’S CHEMICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
LINDA CAPUANO,
Solectron Corporation,
Chair
LISA M. BENDIXEN,
ICF Consulting
ANTHONY J. FINIZZA,
University of California, Irvine
DENNIS C. HENDERSHOT,
Chilworth Technology, Inc.
ROBERT L. HIRSCH,
Science Applications International Corporation
BARRY M. HOROWITZ,
University of Virginia
WILLIAM R. KOCH,
Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.
HOWARD C. KUNREUTHER,
University of Pennsylvania
MICHAEL K. LINDELL,
Texas A&M University
GERALD V. POJE, Independent Consultant
DONALD PROSNITZ,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
HAVIDAN RODRIGUEZ,
University of Delaware
PETER H. SPITZ,
Chemical Advisory Partners
Staff
CHRISTOPHER K. MURPHY, Program Officer (until July 2005)
ERICKA M. MCGOWAN, Research Associate
DAVID C. RASMUSSEN, Program Assistant
DOROTHY ZOLANDZ, Director,
Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology
THOMAS MENZIES, Senior Program Officer,
Transportation Research Board
BOARD ON CHEMICAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY
CHAIRS
A. WELFORD CASTLEMAN, JR. (NAS),
Pennsylvania State University
ELSA REICHMANIS (NAE),
Lucent Technologies
Members
PAUL T. ANASTAS,
Green Chemistry Institute
DENISE M. BARNES, Independent Consultant,
Snellville, Georgia
MARK E. DAVIS,
California Institute of Technology
JEAN DE GRAEVE,
Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium
MILES P. DRAKE,
Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.
CATHERINE C. FENSELAU,
University of Maryland
GEORGE W. FLYNN,
Columbia University
MAURICIO FUTRAN,
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
ROBERT HWANG,
Sandia National Laboratory
JAY V. IHLENFELD,
3M Research & Development
JAMES L. KINSEY,
Rice University
MARTHA A. KREBS,
California Energy Commission
WILLIAM A. LESTER, JR.,
University of California, Berkeley
GREGORY O. NELSON,
Eastman Chemical Company
GERALD V. POJE, Independent Consultant,
Vienna, VA
DONALD PROSNITZ,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
MATTHEW V. TIRRELL,
University of California, Santa Barbara
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF
TINA M. MASCIANGIOLI, Program Officer
ERICKA M. MCGOWAN, Research Associate
SYBIL A. PAIGE, Administrative Associate
DAVID C. RASMUSSEN, Project Assistant
FEDERICO SAN MARTINI, Associate Program Officer
DOROTHY ZOLANDZ, Director
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2005 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE*
JOHN R. NJORD,
Utah Department of Transportation,
Chair
MICHAEL D. MEYER,
Georgia Institute of Technology,
Vice Chair
ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR.,
Transportation Research Board,
Executive Director
MICHAEL W. BEHRENS,
Texas Department of Transportation
ALLEN D. BIEHLER,
Pennsylvania Department of Transportation
LARRY L. BROWN, SR.,
Mississippi Department of Transportation
DEBORAH H. BUTLER,
Norfolk Southern Corporation and Subsidiaries
ANNE P. CANBY,
Surface Transportation Policy Project
JOHN L. CRAIG,
Nebraska Department of Roads
DOUGLAS G. DUNCAN,
FedEx Freight, Memphis
NICHOLAS J. GARBER,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
ANGELA GITTENS, Consultant
GENEVIEVE GIULIANO,
Metrans Transportation Center, (Past Chair, 2003)
BERNARD S. GROSECLOSE, JR.,
South Carolina State Ports Authority
SUSAN HANSON,
Clark University
JAMES R. HERTWIG,
CSX Intermodal
GLORIA J. JEFF,
Michigan Department of Transportation
ADIB K. KANAFANI,
University of California, Berkeley
HERBERT S. LEVINSON, Herbert S. Levinson Transportation Consultant
SUE MCNEIL,
Urban Transportation Center, University of Illinois
MICHAEL MORRIS,
North Central Texas Council of Governments
CAROL A. MURRAY,
New Hampshire Department of Transportation
PHILIP A. SHUCET,
Virginia Department of Transportation
MICHAEL S. TOWNES,
Hampton Roads Transit (Past Chair, 2004)
C. MICHAEL WALTON,
University of Texas, Austin
LINDA S. WATSON,
LYNX—Central Florida Regional Transportation Authority
MARION C. BLAKEY,
U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
JOSEPH H. BOARDMAN,
U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
REBECCA M. BREWSTER,
American Transportation Research Institute (ex officio)
GEORGE BUGLIARELLO,
Polytechnic University; National Academy of Engineering (ex officio)
THOMAS H. COLLINS (Admiral),
U.S. Coast Guard (ex officio)
JENNIFER L. DORN,
U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
JAMES J. EBERHARDT,
U.S. Department of Energy (ex officio)
STACEY L. GERARD,
U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
EDWARD R. HAMBERGER,
Association of American Railroads (ex officio)
JOHN C. HORSLEY,
American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (ex officio)
EDWARD JOHNSON,
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ex officio)
RICK KOWALEWSKI,
U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
WILLIAM W. MILLAR,
American Public Transportation Association (ex officio) (Past Chair, 1992)
MARY E. PETERS,
Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
ERIC C. PETERSON,
U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
SUZANNE RUDZINSKI,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ex officio)
JEFFREY W. RUNGE,
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
ANNETTE M. SANDBERG,
U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
WILLIAM G. SCHUBERT,
U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
JEFFREY N. SHANE,
U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
CARL A. STROCK (Major General),
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ex officio)
Preface
The Committee on Assessing Vulnerabilities Related to the Nation’s Chemical Infrastructure was convened by the National Academies to respond to a request from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T). The directorate sought assistance in making research, development, and technology investments that would help secure the nation’s chemical infrastructure and safeguard against the consequences of a terrorist attack on that infrastructure. The focus was on securing the nation’s infrastructure and economy against terrorist attack and other catastrophic loss by examining the chemical supply chain to identify key chemicals and chemical processes whose disruption could result in catastrophic levels of casualties or catastrophic economic damage. Specifically, this review considers
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Major vulnerabilities and points of weakness in the chemical supply chain that could lead to catastrophic consequences;
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The likely impact of a significant disruption in the supply of these chemicals and processes;
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Actions (procedures, policies, technology deployment) to help prevent disruption in the supply of these chemicals and processes, and to mitigate loss and injury should such disruption occur;
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Incentives and disincentives that affect private sector decisions to take preventive and mitigating actions; and
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Areas of scientific, engineering, and economic research and development that might advance the nation’s capability to protect against such losses and minimize their impact.
The committee’s full statement of task can be found in Appendix B.
I met with DHS S&T representatives several times early in the study process to discuss the statement of task, data availability, and the department’s objectives in commissioning this study. Based on these discussions and from discussions with DHS representatives at the committee’s first meeting, it was agreed that this study should complement and not attempt to duplicate other ongoing activities such as the DHS Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) and Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Off-Site Consequence Analysis. Thus, the committee did not attempt to assess the effectiveness of current protective measures; although called for in the statement of task; this was a part of the DHS RAMCAP effort, which DHS representatives made clear should not be duplicated. As the statement of task indicates, the focus of this review is on the vulnerabilities of the supply chain as a whole rather than the vulnerability of individual chemical plants.
The committee did not have access to the results or preliminary results of the DHS RAMCAP exercise or to the data upon which it is based. Similarly the committee did not have access to EPA’s Off-Site Consequence Analyses. Nor did the committee rely on proprietary or other non-disclosable information from chemical industry representatives upon which to base its report. This report is based solely on open-source information, and the committee’s intention was to write a report whose distribution could be unrestricted. This report represents the dedicated time and effort of all the committee members. The members responded gracefully to the request to submit to a demanding schedule of meetings in a short time period, without compensation and while continuing to attend to the duties of their regular jobs. I am grateful for their work and thoroughly enjoyed the stimulating discussions we had as a part of this process.
Linda Capuano
Chair
POSTSCRIPT ON HURRICANES KATRINA AND RITA
This manuscript was being finalized and sent to review as Hurricane Katrina decimated the Gulf Coast and was in reviewers’ hands when Hurricane Rita hit in the first few weeks following that disaster. It is clear that the overall impact of Katrina was catastrophic, although a final casualty figure may never be definitive, and some economic consequences will linger for years. At the time this report was being finalized, the hurricanes’ impact on the petrochemical industry was fairly clear, and the largest ripples in the economy due to their disruption had apparently occurred. These two hurricanes’ effects on petroleum refineries and on the petrochemical industry are real-life examples of the types of disruption that the Department of Homeland Security envisioned when commissioning this report. As such, the hurricanes’ aftermath provides an unfortunate real-life opportunity to learn lessons about the effects of a major disruption in the petroleum supply chain and on the effectiveness of the responses to such an event.
It will take years for researchers to fully tally the cost of these two hurricanes, but events thus far are consistent with the conclusions and recommendations of this report regarding the robustness of the chemical supply chain and the importance of emergency preparedness and response. Lessons learned from these hurricanes and the responses to them provide an opportunity to better understand the resilience of the chemical infrastructure and determine potential opportunities for improvement.
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Cheryl Burke, DuPont
Charles Casey, University of Wisconsin
Paul K. Davis, The RAND Corporation
Robert Gallamore, Northwestern University
Yacov Haimes, University of Virginia
Steven Kramer, Institute for Defense Analyses
M. Sam Mannan, Texas A&M University
Guy M. Miller, Heico/Zeeland Chemicals
Martin Sherwin (Retired), W.R. Grace Company
Ellis Stanley, City of Los Angeles Emergency Preparedness Department
Esther S. Takeuchi, Wilson Greatbatch Technologies, Inc.
Beth Turner, DuPont
Oliver Williamson, University of California, Berkeley
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. R. Stephen Berry, University of Chicago, and Dr. David C. Bonner, Pretium Consulting Services, LLC, Houston, TX. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authors and the institution.