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2 Programmatic Foundations of AHPS Prior to evaluating the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) program in terms of its scientific and technical- (Chapter 3) or user-related (Chapter 4) goals, it is first necessary to consider the programmatic paradigm for AHPS. The programmatic paradigm includes fundamental structural elements, such as development and implementation plans; clearly stated purpose, goals and objectives; measurable criteria against which to determine success of meeting goals; and adequate human and fiscal resources. This chapter discusses and evaluates these programmatic elements of the AHPS program. First, it describes the purpose, goals, and organization of the AHPS program. Next, it describes and evaluates AHPS in terms of (1) program administration; (2) human and fiscal resources; and (3) program development and implementation. Finally, this chapter reviews a programmatic aspect that is explicitly stated as a goal of AHPS, the issue of collaboration and cooperation with other hydrologic experts. Several findings are noted and recommendations are made. PURPOSE AND BENEFITS OF AHPS The National Weather Service (NWS) initiated AHPS in 1997 to develop and provide advanced technology for hydrologic services. The overarching objectives of AHPS are to increase river and flood forecasting capability and improve communication among NWS staff and offices, cooperating federal and other entities, and NWS customers. The NWS describes AHPS as a program that (1) infuses new science and technology into operations as a cornerstone of NWS Hydrologic Services modernization (NWS, 2001; 2004a) and (2) has "the primary objectives of improving the accuracy and lead time of NWS river and flash-flood forecasts, and quantifying the uncertainty of water predictions" (Carter, 2002). The NWS plans for AHPS to provide users (1) additional time to prepare for floods or droughts, more accurate water forecasts and flood warnings, and (2) better information for decision- making (NWS, 2001; 2002). AHPS will also aim to introduce visually oriented, enhanced river and water resource forecasts. AHPS products include the probabilistic forecasts of flood occurrence for large and small areas over time scales from minutes to multi-month seasons. The overarching purpose, goals, and objectives of AHPS are well communicated by NWS personnel, web-based venues, and in NWS publications. The NWS is commended for presenting clear and well- articulated goals of this program. Economic benefits have been attributed to timely, accurate hydrologic forecasts in the National Hydrologic Warning Council report, Use and Benefits of the National Weather Service River and Flood Forecasts (NHWC, 2002). This report quantifies benefits of accurate and timely hydrologic predictions in the United States. In it, AHPS is recognized as having "tremendous potential" for residual benefits and leading to decreases in flood-related disaster deaths and economic costs. AHPS products and services are estimated to produce up to a 15 percent (or $243 million) improvement in flood loss reduction benefits (NHWC, 2002). The total benefit of NWS hydrologic forecasting, including AHPS, other predictive services for short- and long-term events, and reservoir optimization, is conservatively estimated to be $1.86 billion annually (NHWC, 2002). This benefit increases to $2.4 billion annually when other water resources activities, such as improvements in operations for hydropower, irrigation, navigation, and water supply are included (NHWC, 2002). 17

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18 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Because the goals of AHPS are laudable, and the nation needs improved hydrologic services, continued development and implementation of AHPS should remain high priorities for the NWS. ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT FOR AHPS AHPS is operated out of the Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) of the NWS. The NWS is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and NOAA is charged to assess and predict environmental changes, protect life and property, and provide decision makers with reliable scientific information. Scientific information on water resources flows across several NOAA offices, including the Oceanic and Atmospheric Research; the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service; and the NWS. The NWS is charged to oversee a range of hydrologic and meteorological activities, and has the primary responsibility for issuing forecasts and warnings of floods to help save lives and reduce flood damages. The NWS operates 13 River Forecast Centers (RFCs) (see Figure 1-1) and 122 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs; Figure 2-1) across the United States. RFCs conduct hydrologic modeling operations for streams, reservoirs, and lakes within large river basins. RFCs produce short-term (zero to seven days), medium-term (eight to 14 days) and long-term (90 days or more) forecasts at the regional spatial scale. The RFCs primarily focus on short-term forecasts that serve as input to WFO warnings, watches, and other information that inform decision-makers. Short- term forecasts include conventional forecast hydrograph output and probabilistic information that indicates forecast certainty. Medium-term products include conventional forecast hydrographs and probabilistic information that is produced for selected river basins. Some long-term products incorporate extended-range precipitation and temperature forecast information from the Climate Prediction Center. The NWS expects AHPS products to improve the accuracy of short-, medium- and long-term forecasts. WFOs serve the most localized areas. WFOs produce warnings, watches, and statements covering areas and streams of all sizes that are provided via websites, radio, and television. Major hydrologic services provided by the NWS include flash-flood watches and warnings, river and flood forecasts and warnings, and water supply forecasts. The NWS depends on WFOs to facilitate flood and flash-flood warnings for counties and portions of counties and format these warnings to be issued by forecasters. The NWS expects AHPS advanced models and technical applications to support and enhance the forecast capabilities of the WFOs. The NWS has a number of operational and research components and many of the hydrologic prediction elements of the NWS are responsibilities of OHD. The organizational structure and responsibilities of OHD are described in NWS Instruction 10-901 (2005). In collaboration, the Hydrology Laboratory, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, RFCs, and WFOs develop and apply a variety of hydrometeorological modeling, forecasting, and data analysis techniques. Some of these techniques are used in AHPS products and services, as well as in other parts of the NWS and NOAA.

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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 19 FIGURE 2-1 Location of NWS WFOs. SOURCE: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/wfo-rfcmap.htm. EVALUATION OF AHPS PROGRAMMATIC ELEMENTS This section begins the evaluation of AHPS with a description and review of basic programmatic elements. Programmatic topics covered are AHPS administration, human and fiscal resources, program development and implementation, and collaboration with other providers of hydrologic services and products. AHPS Administration The NWS designed AHPS to provide products and services at local, regional, and national levels. AHPS management is centralized in the OHD at the NWS national headquarters and is administered through the AHPS Review Committee (ARC), which is comprised of NWS employees from national (headquarters), regional, and local offices. The centralized AHPS management in national headquarters makes for a top-down management structure that is designed to provide guidance and direction at the national level and communicate guidance through the regional Hydrologic Service Divisions to and from RFCs and WFOs. The ARC reflects representation and participation from NWS local, regional, and national levels and was designed to facilitate communication and necessary information exchange. In practice, however, it is unclear how well this management structure works. Committee site visits and interviews with RFC and WFO personnel suggest that this AHPS management structure is viewed as one that has yet to achieve its full potential.

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20 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Three areas are identified as opportunities to secure adequate administration of AHPS functions across the national, regional, and local levels. First, interviews at local-level offices suggest that a clear chain of command through these levels needs to be stated and explained. A clear chain of command would improve communications and hopefully overcome difficulties encountered in developing an end-to-end system (see Appendix A for survey synopsis). Although local levels are represented in the ARC, local level personnel expressed a desire for clearer communications and direction for AHPS implementation and operations. Second, local hydrologic operatives stated the need for greater AHPS flexibility in meeting local needs with local solutions. A great deal of modeling that has direct application to AHPS is done at the local level, using locally collected empirical data. Models developed at national headquarters are often tested and implemented through regional and local offices, and local offices may need to adjust the national models for local conditions. Two-way interaction between the national-level models and local conditions is needed. Furthermore, some of the interviewed field personnel expressed frustration that they are not involved in an organized way in AHPS product development and implementation that impact their local operations. AHPS needs clearer and stronger connections between the AHPS national management and local operations for AHPS to fulfill its stated goals. Finally, local solutions that work with national guidance from headquarters may help AHPS achieve its goals that reach across local, regional, and national levels on timelines of hours to multiple months. The beginnings of a framework that could facilitate this kind of interaction appear to be taking form in the NWS through the existing ARC and the regional and national headquarters- RFC-WFO relationships. Still, improved clarity in communication and chain of command is needed to ensure that the necessary interactions can facilitate the most efficient administration of the AHPS program across national, regional, and local offices. Therefore, local and regional field offices, including RFCs and WFOs, should play a larger role in the administration and management of AHPS activities. Human and Fiscal Resources for AHPS The NWS presents AHPS as a means to reinvigorate the scientific hydrologic research in the NWS OHD. In order to realize this possibility, adequate human and fiscal resources must be in place to ensure core competency and program viability. Human Resources The strong hydrologic focus of AHPS makes imperative the inclusion of hydrologists in AHPS administration. Hydrologic information is used in issuing NWS forecasts, watches, and warnings, and specialists in hydrologic sciences are needed to collect, analyze, and interpret these data accurately. The WFOs collect hydrologic empirical data of many kinds. WFO employees collaborate with stream gage experts at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and visit stream gaging stations and flood-prone locations to acquire information on the impact of flood waters at various levels. These visits are seminal to the understanding of how stage of flood waters within and outside of the stream channel (i.e., water depths in floodplain and other flooded areas) relate to stream gage measurements. A robust AHPS program depends on acquiring and maintaining vast amounts of hydrologic data and information to deliver high-quality products that describe the local impacts of flooding.

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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 21 At the RFC level, real-time hydrometeorological data and historical data are used in and along with powerful hydrologic models (Fread et al., 1998). RFC hydrologists must possess appropriate knowledge to ensure accurate and reliable input data and validate model output accuracy. The success of AHPS depends on the underlying hydrologic and hydro-meteorological sciences. Current AHPS scientific and modeling development is primarily focused on improving systems architecture, and this development is occurring through heavy contractor input. Engaging the best contractors and leveraging relevant research conducted at universities and other government organizations are reasonable under many different circumstances. However, in-house core competency is required to develop new procedures and to adapt and integrate externally- developed research products into improved operations. Strong hydrologic training at the WFO, RFC, and headquarters levels could address the need for stronger OHD core capability for hydrologic research and development. It may seem obvious that the hydrologic activities performed by the WFOs and the RFCs should be fulfilled by hydrologists. The history of the NWS, however, shows a preponderance of meteorological experts, even for efforts focused on hydrology. For example, hydrometeorological personnel with duties that have a meteorological emphasis are required to have an extensive education in meteorology. In contrast, personnel with duties with a hydrology emphasis are not required to have a comparable level of education in hydrologic sciences. This staffing issue in the NWS must be addressed because ultimately AHPS depends on recruiting and retaining the best professional talent and leadership to operate, optimize, manage, and maintain AHPS system(s) at all administrative levels. A more substantial educational background in hydrologic science is necessary for personnel working in such positions on the AHPS program. A recommendation from NRC (1996) is repeated here: The NWS "should review and, if warranted, modify its qualification standards for hydrology positions. The NWS should require a degree or extensive formal education in hydrology for positions that involve a hydrology emphasis." Fiscal Resources AHPS operates on a budget of $6M/year (fiscal year (FY) 2005), increased from $ 1 million in FY1997. The budget allocation is divided among implementation costs, science/software research, science/software flash-flood services, science/software for short- to long-term forecasts, science/software for flood forecast mapping, and other products and services. The Susquehanna Flood Forecast and Warning System1 received a $1 million line item allocation in FY2004 and FY2005 (NWS, 2004a) from the AHPS budget; in FY2005, an additional $1 million was redirected to the NWS. Therefore, the $6 million budget was reduced to an effective $5 million in FY2004 and to $4 million in FY2005. Differences noted between meteorological and hydrologic NWS staffing are also reflected in the allocation of fiscal resources at the NOAA level. For example, NOAA's Weather and Water Goal2 claims that "weather and water services make a tremendous contribution to the Nation's health and economic vitality." NOAA requested $904 million for this total effort for FY2007. The division of resources between the "weather" and "water" portions of this budget is roughly 95 percent for weather ($862 million) and 5 percent for water ($42 million). NOAA's Hydrology 1 http://www.susquehannafloodforecasting.org/. 2http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/%7Enbo/FY07_BlueBook/PDFs/WWOnePagerFeb9.pdf.

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22 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Program is the "water" portion of the goal, and AHPS is part of NOAA's Hydrology Program. For AHPS, NOAA requested a $6 million budget for FY2007 that reflects the value assigned to improving hydrologic forecasts. This amount seems misaligned with the importance of providing accurate, timely hydrologic forecasts that mitigate annual flood costs estimated by NOAA to be $5 billion, plus the 80 lives lost each year to floods3. This amount also seems out of sync with resources needed to fulfill the basic mission of AHPS, including developing advanced hydrologic models and producing peer-reviewed publications of AHPS research activities. Therefore, to ensure a viable and sustainable program over the long-term, the program's goals and budget should be brought into closer alignment. AHPS Development and Implementation This review of AHPS development and implementation plans is based on two sources of information. This review reflects information shared in presentations and discussions in committee meeting open sessions and to a greater degree, it is based on an NWS document, Draft: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Development and Implementation Plan (NWS, 2004b), which describes the NWS AHPS efforts. The information is then evaluated against basic elements of an implementation strategy, such as prioritization and schedule for implementation; itemized resources allocated to each task; specific metrics of success for program goals and progress towards meeting those goals; methods for incorporating feedback into the implementation process; and follow-on strategies for longer-range goals. AHPS has been in incremental implementation since its start in 1997 and is expected to be completed in 2013. Starting in 1997 in the Des Moines River Basin, AHPS products first provided forecasts on the relative uncertainty of hydrologic variables with lead times out to three months (McEnery et al., 2005). Today, river and flood forecasts are now provided at approximately 3,400 locations across the country. Of these locations, AHPS information was available at 1,376 locations at the end of FY2005 (Figure 2-2), and by the end of FY2013, AHPS information is expected to be available for 4,011 forecast locations (NWS, 2002). As developed, AHPS forecast and probabilistic information will be rolled out through the regional RFCs and the local WFOs. Prioritization, Timeline, and Allocated Resources of Implementation Tasks In Draft: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Development and Implementation Plan (NWS, 2004b), the NWS describes its implementation strategy as a three-tiered approach, which establishes implementation priority on the technical, modeling, and forecasting AHPS products and services. The approach is tiered to provide "basic" services to all AHPS forecast locations. "Enhanced" services are to be implemented at the "appropriate" AHPS forecast locations. "Partnered" services are to be implemented at the "most appropriate" AHPS forecast locations. Partnered services are co-financed by federal and other funding sources, such as state and local governments. No guidance is given as to how forecast locations are determined to be "appropriate" 3http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/%7Enbo/FY07_BlueBook/PDFs/WWOnePagerFeb9.pdf.

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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 23 AHPS Implementation AHPS Expansion Areas Areas Completed Through FY 2005 (1,376 Forecast Points) Areas Covered by FY 2006 National AHPS (308 New Forecast Points) FIGURE 2-2 Map of AHPS Expansion Areas through FY2006. SOURCE: George Smith, NWS, personal communication, 2005. or "most appropriate." Development program activities are divided among these priority tiers (Box 2-1). Details of the planned products and services are discussed in the scientific and technical evaluation in Chapter 3. Although technically AHPS is in its eighth year, the thrust of AHPS activity started with the increase in fiscal resources in FY2003. NWS (2004b) offers a timeline of implementation (Figure 2- 3) that is reasonably presented by geographic region across the country. However, information in this timeline is not clearly aligned with the specific program development tasks (Box 2-1). A more useful timeline would incorporate: tiers of service, program development tasks, geographic location, expected implementation timeframe, and necessary resources to complete that implementation. The NWS does itemize resource allocations to program development tasks in the program development and implementation documentation, but allocation itemization is presented in individual fiscal year authorizations (i.e., NWS, 2004a). Adding itemized information to the development and implementation strategies is important to convey budgetary and personnel needs through the process of program implementation. Specific Measures of Success Setting goals is important to establish the direction of a program and the overall purpose of related efforts. Implementation plans should be closely aligned with those goals and designed such that progress towards those goals can be measured against specific measures, or metrics, of success. Examples of setting specific metrics can be found in Draft: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Development and Implementation Plan ( NWS, 2004b). Although incomplete, AHPS

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24 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) BOX 2-1 Implementation Tiers of AHPS Program Development Activities 1. Basic Services to be provided at all AHPS forecast locations a. For flood forecast locations i. Observed and forecast river levels and/or flow ii. Probabilistic forecast information b. For water supply forecast locations: water supply volume forecasts 2. Enhanced Services to be provided at all appropriate AHPS forecast locations a. Flash-flood services i. Site-specific models that allow WFOs to generate streamflow predictions ii. Flash-flood guidance iii. Distributed models iv. Statistical distributed models v. Dam break vi. Multisensor quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) vii. Flash-flood monitoring and prediction (FFMP) viii. Basin legacy support ix. Training b. Short-to long-term forecasting services i. Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) system ii. Training 3. Partnered Service to be provided at the most appropriate AHPS forecast locations is the Flood-forecast Mapping Service a. Flood-forecast mapping activities b. Flood-forecast map evaluations c. FLDXS d. FLDVIEW e. Hydraulic models f. FLDIMS g. FLDAT h. DamAT i. Training SOURCE: NWS, 2004b. performance measures are established for several metrics, and a baseline and a target value is set for each metric (Table 2-1). In addition to these performance measures, some specific performance metrics are included for flash-flood services. Specific goals are cited, such as increasing flash-flood forecasts made from 48 minutes with 88 percent accuracy in 2004 to 52 minutes and 90 percent accuracy in 2008. In addition, August 2004 is cited as a specific date for full deployment of Beta testing of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA) in San Juan, Puerto Rico (NWS, 2004b). These examples, and others sprinkled throughout the NWS 2004 document, mark the beginning of an effort to provide specific, measurable metrics for each goal and implementation timeline established that should be enhanced and reflected throughout AHPS development and implementation documentation. AHPS Long-range Goals The long-term possibilities for AHPS should receive some consideration in the development and implementation plans. Already, AHPS is the second generation of hydrologic prediction

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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 25 FIGURE 2-3 AHPS operational forecast locations. SOURCE: Updated from NWS, 2004b. NOTE: See acronym list. services (the Water Resources Forecasting System was the first generation), and it is unclear how AHPS fits in the long-range view of the NWS and NOAA, more generally. In open session presentations, NWS personnel described AHPS goals as being met through a number of related, but distinct NWS and NOAA programs. Some of these other programs include the Integrated Water Science Plan (NWS, 2004c), the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, the Hydrologic Services Program, and the Water Resources Data Assimilation effort. Connections between and among AHPS and these other programs were not described. Some long-range plans for AHPS should mention how AHPS does (or does not) relate to these other efforts and how, if at all, they may share objectives, goals, or resources. Overall, the NWS development and implementation plans for AHPS provide a good start. The 2004 document, Draft: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Development and Implementation Plan (NWS, 2004b), sets out the main elements of the program's mission, tasks, and some timeline plans. Missing from NWS documentation, however, is an overall description of measurable milestones in getting AHPS to full implementation by 2013. A scheduled timetable, complete with fiscal and human resource allocations, tasks, and geographic locations is needed to give structure and

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26 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) TABLE 2-1 AHPS Performance Measures Metric Rationale Baseline (year) Target (year) Flash-flood warning Contribute to the 41 54 Government lead time (minutes) protection of life (2003) (2010) Performance and and property Results Act (GPRA) Flash-flood warning Contribute to the 89 91 accuracy (%) protection of life (2003) (2010) and property AHPS forecast Increases 717 4, 011 locations information to (2003) (2013) manage water resources River Flood Leads to TBD TBD Warning Accuracy increased (2005) Non-GPRA (%) confidence in forecasts New Science Science TBD TBD Operations (%) enhancements (2005) implemented into operations Probabilistic Leads to TBD TBD forecast reliability increased (2005) (%) confidence in forecasts SOURCE: NWS, 2004b. defense to AHPS development and implementation activities. A single overarching plan is also needed to connect program goals and program development tasks to measurable criteria, performance measures, fiscal resources, integration of user feedback into AHPS operations, or other aspects of an overarching implementation plan. The NWS (2004b) development and implementation document was still in draft form at the time of this report's printing. As the NWS revises and finalizes this document, it is recommended that the following items be included for consideration. AHPS should develop a detailed and comprehensive, multi-year implementation plan that is updated on an annual basis. This plan should include the following: 1. a detailed prioritization and schedule for program development tasks; 2. itemized fiscal and human resources allocated to each task; 3. specific metrics to measure progress towards meeting objectives; 4. methods for incorporating user feedback into the AHPS program for improving AHPS products and services; and 5. follow-on strategies to achieve longer range goals. AHPS Collaborators and Partners AHPS has an explicit program goal to expand outreach by engaging partners and customers in all aspects of the hydrologic services improvement effort (NWS, 2004b). In setting out to meet this goal, the NWS is benefited by the large group of scientists in government, academe, and the private sector who share interest and expertise in hydrologic research, services, and products. Collaborative

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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 27 pursuits increase support from all organizations involved and help strike a proper balance between taking advantage of internal and external expertise, programs, and technologies. The NWS has a history of collaboration with other federal and non-federal agencies to make efficient use of resources and fulfill NWS objectives. The full list of collaborators4 is long; the main players include the USGS, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the Natural Resource Conservation Service. One reason for collaboration on hydrologic activity stems from a need to share the costs of providing hydrologic services across temporal and spatial scales. Few entities outside of the federal government can afford the costs of hydrologic data collection, analysis and modeling. For this reason and for reasons of efficiency, cooperation and collaboration among involved agencies and entities are important aspects of a functional hydrologic prediction system. An excellent example of federal collaboration is between the NWS and the USGS in developing hydrologic forecasts. The USGS is the principal source of data on river depth and discharge in the United States (Wahl et al., 1995) with its stream gage network of more than 7,300 stream gages under its National Streamflow Information Program (NSIP5; Figure 2-4). During a flood, the USGS collects streamflow data, and the NWS collects precipitation data. Together, both types of data are used by the NWS (Figure 2-5) to develop and calibrate complex mathematical Active streamgages operated by the USGS Streamgages currently operated by other agencies and in the NSIP plan Streamgages that are inactive, to be reactivated in the NSIP plan Proposed new streamgages in NSIP Plan FIGURE 2-4 NSIP map of streamgages to support streamflow forecasting. SOURCE: Adapted from http://water.usgs.gov/nsip/nsipmaps/federalgoals.html. 4See http://www.crh.noaa.gov/-ahps/nws_partners.php for further information. 5Further information on the USGS NSIP program is available online at http://water.usgs.gov/nsip/ and http://water.usgs.gov/nsip/nsipmaps/currentgages.html.

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28 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) FIGURE 2-5 Example of how AHPS hydrograph information is linked to USGS gage data. SOURCE: http://ahps2.wrh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=byz&gage=bilm8&view=1,1,1,1,1,1. models of how rivers and streams respond to rainfall and snowmelt and make hydrologic forecasts (Fread et al., 1998). The NWS also collaborates with state (e.g., California Department of Water Resources and the Colorado Climate Center), local (i.e., Automatic Local Evaluation in Real Time [ALERT] Network) and academic organizations (i.e., National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR]) to disseminate information to the public, transmit information to local flood control districts, and conduct research, respectively. Whereas many of these collaborations are successful (i.e., USGS, ALERT, and NCAR, etc.), expanding outreach for the sake of outreach may not advance the purpose and mission of AHPS. Collaborative efforts need to be closely aligned with the specific program development tasks that the NWS has established as priorities for AHPS (Box 2-1). Otherwise, collaboration among different entities may yield mixed results. Each agency has its own hydrologic modeling program. Despite some progress through interagency collaborative activities over the years, it is unclear whether these activities achieve or advance AHPS program goals. Development of models and software is a major thrust of AHPS collaborations. Discussed more fully in Chapter 3, the DMIP, the CHPS, and the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment are working examples of collaboration on modeling, technical, and scientific aspects of hydrologic products and services. These activities demonstrate that the NWS engages the hydrologic science research community to infuse ideas from academic and governmental research laboratories and help establish the research agenda for AHPS. The degree to which these collaborations are aligned with AHPS goals and objectives needs clarification.

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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 29 The USACE collaborates with AHPS researchers on a regional basis, but the model alterations used in the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) (see Chapter 4, Box 4-1) suggest that additional collaborations could benefit AHPS model developments. The HEC has incorporated gridded and lumped versions of the SAC-SMA (see the Chapter 3 section on Hydrologic Models of NWSRFS) into their Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) through various mechanisms of making adaptations to the SAC-SMA (USACE, 2001). The HEC approaches to integrate and make adjustments to model parameterization and calibration may benefit the NWS; AHPS modelers might consider for AHPS applications some of the positive features of the HEC- HMS user friendly interface. AHPS has shown a promising record in collaborative work and research with federal, state, local, and academic liaisons, and the NWS should continue and focus collaboration activities with federal, academic, and private sector organizations to advance AHPS program and product development. CHAPTER SUMMARY This chapter describes the programmatic aspects of AHPS. The purpose and benefits of the program are discussed and the organizational structure for the program is explained. The AHPS administrative structure, human and fiscal resources, plans for AHPS product development and implementation, and collaborative efforts among AHPS partners are evaluated. The chapter's recommendations are in Box 2-2. BOX 2-2 Recommendations Local and regional field offices, including RFCs and WFOs, should play a larger role in the administration and management of AHPS activities. A recommendation from NRC (1996) is repeated: The NWS "should review and, if warranted, modify its qualification standards for hydrology positions. The NWS should require a degree or extensive formal education in hydrology for positions that involve a hydrology emphasis." A better, closer alignment between AHPS goals and the budget dedicated to fully achieve those goals is needed for AHPS longevity and viability. Some long-range plans for AHPS should mention how AHPS does (or does not) relate to other NWS and NOAA water-related programs and how, if at all, they may share objectives, goals, or resources. AHPS should develop a detailed and comprehensive, multi-year implementation plan that is updated on an annual basis. This plan should include the following: o a detailed prioritization and schedule for program development tasks; o itemized fiscal and human resources allocated to each task; o specific measures (metrics) to measure progress towards meeting objectives; o methods for incorporating user feedback into the AHPS program for improving AHPS products and services; and o follow-on strategies for the NWS and the program's longer range goals. The NWS should continue and focus collaboration activities with federal, academic, and private sector organizations to advance AHPS program and product development.

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30 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) REFERENCES Carter, G. 2002. Infusing New Science into the National Weather Service River Forecast System. Second Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference. Las Vegas, NV. July 28- Auugust 1, 2002. Available on-line at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/presentations/fihm02/pdfs /carterpwp.pdf. Accessed November 18, 2005. Fread, D., J. Lewis, T. Carroll, A. Rost, and J. Ingram. 1998. Improving Real-Time Hydrologic Services in USA: Part II: Inundation Mapping Using Dynamic Streamflow Modeling. British Hydrological Society International Symposium on Hydrology in a Changing Environment, Exeter, UK, July 6-10. Available on-line at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/rvrmech/papers/ hl_352.pdf. Accessed August 29, 2005. McEnery, J., J. Ingram, Q. Duan, T. Adams, and L. Anderson. 2005. NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Building Pathways for Better Science in Water Forecasting. Available on-line at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/ahps/BAMS_Article.pdf. Accessed December 20, 2005. NHWC (National Hydrologic Warning Council). 2002. Use and Benefits of the National Weather Service River and Flood Forecasts. Available on-line at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/aAHPS/ AHPS%20Benefits.pdf. Accessed May 25, 2005. NRC (National Research Council). 1996. Toward a New National Weather Service: Assessment of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Operations and Services. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. NWS (National Weather Service). 2001. Implementation of Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Silver Spring, MD: NWS. NWS. 2002. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Concept of Services and Operations. Silver Spring, MD: NWS. NWS. 2004a. NWS FY2004 Authorization. Silver Spring, MD: NWS. NWS. 2004b. Draft: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Development and Implementation Plan. Silver Spring, MD: NWS. NWS. 2004c. Draft: The NWS Integrated Water Science Plan (IWSP). Silver Spring, MD: NWS. NWS. 2005. National Weather Service Instruction 10-901: Hydrologic Services Program Management. Available on-line at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/010/pd01009001b.pdf. Accessed August 5, 2005. USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). 2001. Hydrologic Modeling System HEC-HMS User's Manual: Version 2.1. Davis, CA: USACE. Wahl, K., W. Thomas, and R. Hirsch. 1995. Overview of the Stream-Gaging Program. U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1123.