Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page 16
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports 2 Measuring Content Using Input-Output Tables MEASURING THE EXTENT TO WHICH the United States is integrated with the global economy through imports and exports is conceptually straightforward when finished goods are exchanged for finished goods, but measurement is more difficult when imported intermediate inputs and raw materials are used to produce final goods that are later exported. Figure 2-1 illustrates the case in which Country 1 produces an intermediate good and exports it to the United States, where it is combined with two intermediate domestic goods along with capital and labor to produce a final good or a further processed good. Figure 2-2 illustrates the case in which the United States produces an intermediate good and exports it to Country 1 for further processing and it is then exported back to the United States as a final good. In both cases, the intermediate good flows back and forth across the border, the second time as part of the finished item. Currently, the United States records the gross value of exports and makes no adjustment for the fact that some part of the value of exports may have been produced in a foreign country. Likewise, the country currently records the gross value of imports and makes no adjustment for the fact that some of those imports include parts made in the United States. The request to the committee to consider the “content” question in effect is calling for a new way to do the accounting, in which a portion of U.S. exports is attributed to foreign production and a portion of U.S. imports is attributed to U.S. production. The U.S. national income accounts routinely deal with the double
OCR for page 17
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports FIGURE 2-1 Illustration of imported intermediate goods as part of U.S. exports. * Final good or further processed good. SOURCE: Adapted from Hummels, Ishii, and Yi (2001). counting of domestic output that internal supply chains might create by using a strictly value-added approach. For example, the contribution of the U.S. auto sector to gross domestic product (GDP) is counted as value added, exclusive of the value of the steel and plastics that are made by other domestic sectors. Current accounting for trade does not use a value-added approach to the measurement of exports and imports. To understand how the accounting is currently done and how it might be done more accurately, consider an example in which $1,000 of parts are made in the United States and then shipped to Mexico for assembly before returning to the United States as $1,500 of final goods. There are two ways this sequence of transactions might be recorded. Current accounting methods would record U.S. exports as $1,000 and U.S. imports as $1,500, with a trade deficit of $500. The $1,000 contribution to GDP from this transaction would then be recorded as sales to consumers ($1,500) plus exports ($1,000) minus imports ($1,500), that is, $1,000 of value added. An alter-
OCR for page 18
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports FIGURE 2-2 Illustration of exported U.S. intermediate goods that are subsequently imported back to the United States as a part of final goods. * Final good or further processed good. SOURCE: Adapted from Hummels, Ishii, and Yi (2001). native external accounting would remove the “revolving door trade” by recording no exports and only $500 of imports. Both accounting systems yield the same number for GDP and for net exports. The difference is in the volume of trade. The traditional accounting approach gives the impression that the United States is trading exports for imports, while the more accurate accounting approach shows the $500 payment for the assembly services provided by Mexico, with no offsetting export payment. These two accounting systems have very different implications for determining the U.S. terms of trade. In the traditional approach, this transaction affects both the import price and the export price. The price is the amount of money for which goods and services are bought and sold. The price of parts is included in the export price index with a value weight of $1,000, and the price of finished goods is included in the import price index with a value weight of $1,500. This seems to show that the United States is exchanging parts for finished goods. The more accurate alternative approach records a value-added import price equal to the price of finished goods minus the price of parts times the value share of parts in final output.
OCR for page 19
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports Another example illustrates accounting for the foreign content of U.S. exports. Suppose that $1,000 of parts are made in Mexico, shipped to the United States for assembly, and then exported to third countries as $1,500 of final goods. Current accounting methods would record U.S. exports as $1,500 and U.S. imports as $1,000, with a trade surplus of $500 and GDP of $500. An alternative external accounting would remove the revolving door trade by eliminating the $1,000 foreign content of U.S. exports and by reducing imports by a like amount. As above, both accounting systems yield the same numbers for GDP and for net exports. The difference is in the volume of trade. The traditional accounting gives the impression that the United States is trading exports for imports, while the more accurate accounting indicates that the $500 in exports has no offsetting import amount. In these simple examples of the foreign content of U.S. exports and the U.S. content of U.S. imports, no one currently directly keeps track of supply chains inside and outside the United States and these simple adjustments to exports and imports cannot be done. ESTIMATING THE IMPORTS EMBODIED IN EXPORTS One of the committee’s central tasks was to determine if there are ways to measure the foreign content of U.S. exports. For example, in the agricultural sector, we were asked to seek an answer to the question: How much of the $19.6 billion of exports of agricultural goods in 1998 reflects value-added originating on U.S. farms and other sectors of the U.S. economy versus value-added originating in other countries—such as imports of cattle feed from Canada that help to grow cattle for export to Mexico? The task for this study asks whether one can directly measure the U.S. content of imports and the foreign content of exports. The example of trying to measure the value of exported cattle due to the cattle having consumed foreign feed shows easily the difficulty with this kind of direct measurement in one particular instance. Also, for the information to be complete one would have to know not only how much feed of foreign origin the cattle consumed, but also if any of that feed happened to contain product from another country or countries. It is clear, therefore, that at the point of export, there is no way by inspection of cattle to determine how much of the feed the cattle consumed was imported from Canada or other countries. In order to obtain a measurement of the foreign content of U.S. agricultural and other exports, one would need to find a way to trace imports through the economy and
OCR for page 20
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports ultimately to the point of export or to final domestic usage. An alternative to tracing every detail of the supply chain from imports to exports would be to “tag” imports, electronically or chemically, so that the imported value added would be evident when the export is inspected at the point of exit. Clearly tracking exports and imports on this scale would be an impractical task. What might be possible would be for the federal government to carry out a series of case studies on particular items of significant interest or of importance, for instance, to national security. One could imagine the government requesting, for instance, an aircraft manufacturer to report on the country of origin of all the inputs into a commercial aircraft. However, even in this case, accurate data would require foreign-owned offshore companies to report any inputs to these parts that originated in third countries. The complexity of such measurements increases significantly quite quickly. CONCLUSION: It is impractical to directly measure the foreign content of U.S. exports and the U.S. content of imports to the United States. An alternative to these rather fanciful ideas about how to measure directly the foreign content of U.S. exports is to use U.S. input-output tables to form a proxy measurement.1 The following content analysis has been developed by the committee having examined the reported analysis by Hummels, Ishii, and Yi (2001).2 Using a Use Table A U.S. 1998 “use table” is reproduced in Table 2-1 (Parts A and B).3 Each column of this table records the purchases of commodities by a sector of the economy. Thus, agricultural businesses purchased $69 billion of ag- 1 The Industry Economics Division (IED) of BEA prepares input-output accounts. For more information, see BEA’s Industry Economic Accounts Information Guide, available: http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn2/iedguide.htm#IO [accessed January 2006]. 2 For information on firm-level import and export data for the United States, see Bernard, Jensen, and Schott (2005). 3 In illustrating the calculations reported herein, the committee chose to use a 1998 data set—a decision that also facilitated comparison with content measurements reported elsewhere for a similar time period (discussed below).
OCR for page 21
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports ricultural products, $368 million of minerals, and so on. The data in the table rows indicate that agricultural businesses sold $69 billion to other farmers, $78 million to miners, and so on. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) also produces a “make table” with rows corresponding to industries and columns to commodities. A make table indicates the commodities produced by each industry. The direct requirements matrix in Table 2-2 is found by multiplying the normalized make matrix times the normalized use matrix. The data in this table represent the intermediate input fraction of the value of total output for each sector (column). This table should be read by column. The destination shares matrix reported in Table 2-3 is found by dividing each row of the use matrix by the value of output. This represents the fraction of total output that is shipped to each sector. This table should be read by row. These data tables can be used to answer the content question though there are several very restrictive assumptions necessary to do so. Step One: Make an Input-Output Table with Import Rows An input-output table has no rows for imported inputs as distinct from U.S. output. Therefore, the table does not reveal how much of those $23 billion of imports of agricultural goods and how much of other imports were used as intermediate inputs and how those intermediate imports were allocated across sectors. The first step is to create a use matrix like Table 2-1 that includes rows that represent imported intermediate goods. This is done by dividing the total intermediate inputs reported in Table 2-1 into domestic and imported inputs. One can create the import rows for the input-output matrix using the destination matrix (Table 2-3) with an assumption of input similarity. That is: Assumption 1–Import Similarity: Within the product categories of the input-output table, the mixes of imports and U.S.-made goods are the same and therefore have the same destinations. Applying this assumption, Table 2-3 shows that if 51.6 percent of the gross output of agriculture is shipped to manufacturing for further processing, then 51.6 percent of agricultural imports are also shipped to manufacturing. Similarly, if 38.2 percent of the gross output of the minerals sector
OCR for page 22
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports TABLE 2-1 The Use of Commodities by Industries, 1998 (in millions of dollars) Part A: Industries Commodities Industriesa Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing Agricultural products 68,682 78 5,860 144,622 Minerals 368 31,478 7,368 81,722 Construction 3,369 4,693 895 28,756 Manufactured products 49,395 14,510 299,429 1,380,590 Transportation, communication, and utilities 12,625 12,652 24,847 179,922 Trade 13,948 3,498 81,671 230,668 Finance, insurance, and real estate 20,647 33,253 16,485 71,167 Services 8,998 5,851 103,708 240,141 Other 166 29 1,076 13,826 Noncomparable imports 64 1,872 22,929 Total intermediate inputs 178,262 107,913 541,338 2,394,342 Value added 105,028 39,826 464,841 1,559,242 Total industry output 283,290 147,738 1,006,179 3,953,584 aThe input-output (I-O) accounts use two classification systems, one for industries and another for commodities, but both systems generally use the same I-O numbers and titles. goes to the transportation, communications and utilities sector, then so does 38.2 percent of the minerals inputs. With this assumption the destination matrix in Table 2-3 can be used to estimate the imports of intermediate inputs and their allocations across sectors. Returning to the example of the agricultural sector, the input-output table indicates that of a total agricultural output of $281 billion,
OCR for page 23
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports Transportation, Communication, and Utilities Trade Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Services Otherb 154 1,816 11,476 12,310 567 52,354 31 6 32 3,061 47,369 12,694 66,515 28,785 25,895 70,485 68,005 19,318 340,944 17,593 200,933 68,214 52,626 120,762 22,872 15,081 32,685 4,925 68,036 2,646 40,283 108,418 445,679 243,750 7,945 144,495 219,223 191,363 530,971 13,585 3,306 11,226 28,196 24,713 3,034 21,939 7,722 8,553 5,189 1,144 596,399 530,035 828,656 1,375492 98,341 653,908 1,022,277 1,718,897 2,104,140 1,113,367 1,250,307 1,552,311 2,547,553 3,479,631 1,211,707 b“Other” consists of government enterprises, general government industry, household industry, and the inventory valuation adjustment. SOURCE: Planting and Kuhbach (2001). 24.5 percent was sold to other farmers (69/281) and 51.6 percent (145/ 281) to manufacturers. Applying the same ratio to $23 billion of total agricultural imports, we estimate $5.7 billion of agricultural intermediate imports sold to farmers and $12.1 billion to manufacturers. Similar calculations for the other sectors lead to the imported inputs by sector of use that are reported in Table 2-4.
OCR for page 24
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports TABLE 2-1 The Use of Commodities by Industries, 1998 (in millions of dollars) Part B: Final Uses Commodities Total Intermediate Use Final Uses (GDP) Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Fixed Expenditures Changes in Business Inventories Agricultural products 24,564 34,596 1,236 Minerals 176,417 105 956 387 Construction 218,971 577,089 Manufactured products 2,260,269 1,078,057 587,174 41,694 Transportation, communication, and utilities 695,452 437,478 17,996 1,250 Trade 453,157 873,411 112,475 5,127 Finance, insurance, and real estate 987,627 1,369,009 51,135 Services 1,458,335 2,010,510 166,967 25 Other 85,574 5,119 −48,174 23,409 Noncomparable imports 69,413 47,744 Total intermediate inputs 6,650,777 Value addedd Total industry outputc 5,856,029 1,465,618 73,127 cMay not sum to totals due to rounding. dConsists of compensation of employees, indirect business tax and nontax liability, and other value added. “Other value added” consists of the following components of gross domestic income: consumption of fixed capital, net interest, proprietors’ income, corporate profits, rental income of persons, business transfer payments, and subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises. The entries in Table 2-4 can be used as the import rows of a new input-output use table. The domestic rows are the same as in Table 2-1, except that imported intermediates are subtracted to reflect the fact that some of the inputs comes from imports. Dividing each column of the resulting matrix by total output produces the input-output requirements matrix reported in Table 2-5. The two parts of this matrix (the domestic part at the
OCR for page 25
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment GDPc Total Commodity Outputc 19,563 −23,438 2,984 34,940 280,503 6,961 −47,469 -180 −39,241 137,176 78 210,040 787,208 1,006,179 523,300 −828,893 210,188 1,611,520 3,871,789 70,106 −15,367 74,784 586,248 1,281,700 70,298 19,586 22,215 1,103,110 1,556,267 73,154 −9,896 37,315 1,520,718 2,508,344 38,456 −8,322 6,745 2,214,382 3,672,717 93,720 −5,783 963,760 1,032,052 1,117,626 −127,801 10,644 -69,413 8,781,523 895,637 −1,047,382 1,538,494 15,432,301 top and the import part at the bottom) add up to the totals reported in Table 2-2. Step Two: Estimate the Direct Imports Used to Produce Exports Estimating the inputs used directly to produce exports can then be carried out with the addition of an input-output requirements matrix such
OCR for page 26
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports TABLE 2-2 U.S. Input-Output Requirements (in percent) Inputs Outputs Agricultural Minerals Construction Manufactured TCU Trade FIRE Services Other Agricultural products 24.2 0.1 0.6 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 Minerals 0.1 21.3 0.7 2.1 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Construction 1.2 3.2 0.1 0.7 3.8 0.8 2.6 0.8 2.1 Manufactured products 17.4 9.8 29.8 34.9 5.6 4.4 0.8 9.8 1.5 TCU 4.5 8.6 2.5 4.6 16.1 4.4 2.1 3.5 1.9 Trade 4.9 2.4 8.1 5.8 1.2 2.1 0.2 2.0 0.2 FIRE 7.3 22.5 1.6 1.8 3.2 7.0 17.5 7.0 0.7 Services 3.2 4.0 10.3 6.1 11.6 14.1 7.5 15.3 1.1 Other 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.3 Noncomparable imports 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 Total intermediate inputs 62.9 73.0 53.8 60.6 47.7 34.1 32.5 39.5 8.1 Value added 37.1 27.0 46.2 39.4 52.3 65.9 67.5 60.5 91.9 Total industry output 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 NOTE: TCU = transportation, communication, and utilities; FIRE = finance, insurance, and real estate.
OCR for page 38
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports TABLE 2-10 U.S. Imports, Exports, and Imports Embodied in Exports, 91 by 91 Input/Output Matrix, 1998 Product Total Imports Intermediate Imports Percent Livestock and livestock products 2,519 2,461 97.7 Other agricultural products 12,089 8,875 73.4 Forestry and fishery products 8,931 10,364 116.0 Agricultural, forestry, and fishery service 9 8 92.9 Metallic ores mining −1,248 −921 Coal mining 326 309 94.7 Crude petroleum and natural gas 61,648 96,294 156.2 Nonmetallic minerals mining 1,201 1,233 102.6 New construction 0 0 Maintenance and repair construction 0 0 Ordnance and accessories 922 7 0.8 Food and kindred products 32,855 12,432 37.8 Tobacco products 1,155 66 5.7 Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and threads 5,269 5,137 97.5 Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings 2,790 1,608 57.6 Apparel 66,035 15,334 23.2 Miscellaneous fabricated textile products 5,923 3,057 51.6 Lumber and wood products 18,124 17,527 96.7 Furniture and fixtures 16,717 3,135 18.8 Paper and allied products, except containers 17,063 14,293 83.8 Paperboard containers and boxes 600 574 95.7 Newspapers and periodicals 274 60 22.1 Other printing and publishing 3,323 2,165 65.1 Industrial and other chemicals 22,458 19,995 89.0 Agricultural fertilizers and chemicals 3,358 2,664 79.3 Plastics and synthetic materials 8,046 7,429 92.3 Drugs 37,954 13,463 35.5 Cleaning and toilet preparations 3,641 687 18.9 Paints and allied products 743 641 86.3 Petroleum refining and related products 14,581 8,194 56.2 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products 23,872 21,520 90.1 Footwear, leather, and leather products 18,632 9,591 51.5 Glass and glass products 4,333 4,124 95.2 Stone and clay products 9,762 10,108 103.5 Primary iron and steel manufacturing 17,372 19,575 112.7 Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing 21,491 24,142 112.3 Metal containers 325 323 99.4
OCR for page 39
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports Total Exports Direct Imports Percent Direct Plus Indirect Imports Percent 907 112 12.4 173 19.0 14,581 353 2.4 721 4.9 2,263 437 19.3 849 37.5 38 0 1.3 1 2.1 1,023 −92 −9.0 −266 −26.0 1,396 6 0.4 26 1.9 3,223 4,039 125.3 10,639 330.1 677 54 7.9 117 17.3 0 0 0 69 0 0.0 0 0.0 2,373 1 0.0 1 0.0 25,446 339 1.3 592 2.3 4,943 6 0.1 7 0.1 3,696 470 12.7 688 18.6 2,171 122 5.6 186 8.6 8,085 1,596 19.7 1,701 21.0 1,076 237 22.0 279 25.9 5,224 494 9.5 1,151 22.0 4,283 240 5.6 268 6.2 10,864 666 6.1 1,400 12.9 1,363 45 3.3 71 5.2 768 2 0.2 4 0.5 3,608 59 1.6 154 4.3 23,496 2,331 9.9 4,360 18.6 4,113 280 6.8 471 11.4 12,452 711 5.7 1,404 11.3 11,534 463 4.0 518 4.5 4,528 44 1.0 70 1.5 1,266 36 2.8 60 4.7 9,467 564 6.0 1,021 10.8 12,703 1,898 14.9 2,827 22.3 1,858 1,351 72.7 1,085 58.4 2,375 299 12.6 502 21.1 2,250 196 8.7 454 20.2 4,480 2,230 49.8 4,088 91.2 9,345 3,248 34.8 5,900 63.1 258 20 7.6 32 12.3
OCR for page 40
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports Product Total Imports Intermediate Imports Percent Heating, plumbing, and fabricated structures 3,213 2,956 92.0 Screw machine products and stampings 3,019 2,883 95.5 Other fabricated metal products 17,910 16,763 93.6 Engines and turbines 5,586 3,616 64.7 Farm, construction, and mining machinery 10,037 1,473 14.7 Materials handling machinery and equipment 3,878 1,509 38.9 Metalworking machinery and equipment 10,799 3,705 34.3 Special industry machinery and equipment 9,731 1,722 17.7 General industrial machinery and equipment 13,949 8,482 60.8 Miscellaneous machinery, except electric 2,978 2,781 93.4 Computer and office equipment 79,871 39,331 49.2 Service industry machinery 4,255 2,585 60.8 Electrical industrial equipment and apparatus 12,168 9,471 77.8 Household appliances 7,666 1,488 19.4 Electric lighting and wiring equipment 9,216 9,164 99.4 Audio, video, and communication equipment 48,455 11,753 24.3 Electronic components and accessories 46,361 45,470 98.1 Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies 13,854 10,095 72.9 Motor vehicles (passenger cars and trucks) 115,857 929 0.8 Truck and bus bodies, trailers, and motor parts 39,406 35,542 90.2 Aircraft and parts 21,650 5,280 24.4 Other transportation equipment 6,644 717 10.8 Scientific and controlling instruments 26,319 7,470 28.4 Ophthalmic and photographic equipment 10,331 4,343 42.0 Miscellaneous manufacturing 39,832 13,612 34.2 Railroads and related services; passenger round transportation 208 105 50.5 Motor freight transportation and warehouse 2,112 1,511 71.5 Water transportation −5,394 −2,185 Air transportation 17,644 7,860 44.5 Pipelines, freight forwarders, and related services 0 0 Communications, except radio and TV 0 0 Radio and TV broadcasting 0 0 Electric services (utilities) 1,382 658 47.6 Gas production and distribution (utilities) 0 0 Water and sanitary services 0 0 Wholesale trade −19,182 −9,255 Retail trade 0 0
OCR for page 41
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports Total Exports Direct Imports Percent Direct Plus Indirect Imports Percent 2,903 132 4.5 206 7.1 2,847 400 14.1 523 18.4 9,485 1,773 18.7 2,797 29.5 9,559 461 4.8 584 6.1 11,176 92 0.8 163 1.5 2,289 50 2.2 106 4.6 5,830 510 8.7 862 14.8 8,830 216 2.5 311 3.5 11,804 1,116 9.5 1,642 13.9 2,817 439 15.6 647 23.0 38,203 5,436 14.2 6,787 17.8 5,087 99 1.9 148 2.9 6,610 1,260 19.1 1,733 26.2 3,060 11 0.3 41 1.3 4,960 299 6.0 513 10.3 20,372 1,690 8.3 2,093 10.3 45,480 10,080 22.2 13,099 28.8 7,320 941 12.9 1,311 17.9 23,589 125 0.5 160 0.7 30,438 2,871 9.4 3,664 12.0 57,158 2,100 3.7 2,553 4.5 4,565 60 1.3 96 2.1 30,992 953 3.1 1,205 3.9 3,976 163 4.1 316 8.0 6,165 590 9.6 936 15.2 4,820 6 0.1 12 0.3 15,214 93 0.6 189 1.2 9,951 −246 −2.5 −396 −4.0 29,665 654 2.2 1,047 3.5 3,135 0 0.0 0 0.0 5,597 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0 0 503 37 7.3 71 14.2 423 0 0.0 0 0.0 67 0 0.0 0 0.0 71,417 −818 −1.1 −1,295 −1.8 33 0 0.0 0 0.0
OCR for page 42
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports Product Total Imports Intermediate Imports Percent Finance 959 428 44.6 Insurance 2,390 1,019 42.6 Owner-occupied dwellings 0 0 Real estate and royalties 0 0 Hotels and lodging places 0 0 Personal and repair services (except auto) 0 0 Computer and data processing services 1,205 474 39.3 Legal, engineering, accounting, related services 2,200 1,607 73.1 Other business and professional services 3,584 3,101 86.5 Advertising 1,281 1,262 98.5 Eating and drinking places 0 0 Automotive repair and services 4 2 38.8 Amusements 306 102 33.3 Health services 10 0 2.3 Educational and social services, and membership organizations 349 22 6.3 Federal government enterprises 0 0 State and local government enterprises 0 0 Total 1,015,134 586,323 57.8 NOTE: Calculated using formulas as described in McMichael (2002). United States with imported inputs. The consequent higher price of U.S. finished products would reduce U.S. exports and increase U.S. imports of finished goods, thus mitigating the intended protection of American manufacturing jobs. Another question that might be raised concerns the effect of the external deficit on the level and structure of imports and exports of manufactures: If the external deficit causes depreciation of the value of the dollar, which stimulates U.S. exports, how much of the increased value of exports is offset by greater imports of intermediate inputs? This question also points to price changes that would change the input-output tables: the depreciation of the dollar would increase the price of imported intermediate goods and encourage a shift to U.S. suppliers. Thus, interventions in the markets for intermediate imports would produce a complicated set of reactions that cannot be predicted with an input-output framework that ignores alto-
OCR for page 43
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports Total Exports Direct Imports Percent Direct Plus Indirect Imports Percent 32,803 17 0.1 31 0.1 2,081 16 0.8 37 1.8 0 0 0 37,992 0 0.0 0 0.0 124 0 0.0 0 0.0 83 0 0.0 0 0.0 6,543 20 0.3 41 0.6 11,979 58 0.5 122 1.0 10,011 130 1.3 263 2.6 770 67 8.7 108 14.1 755 0 0.0 0 0.0 1,760 0 0.0 0 0.0 11,416 3 0.0 6 0.0 225 0 0.0 0 0.0 544 1 0.2 2 0.4 270 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0 0 811,895 54,766 6.7 84,285 10.4 gether the effects of prices on the choice of inputs by businesses and the choice of products by consumers. To make these problems more clear it is useful to explain how indirect imports are computed. First, one has to find out the level of domestic output directly used to produce exports by multiplying the vector of exports by the domestic rows of the input/output requirements matrix in Table 2-7. This can be expressed as SD x where SD is the matrix of domestic input-output shares and x is the vector of export values. Then, one computes the level of imports needed to produce those inputs by multiplying this amount of domestic output by the import rows of the same matrix: SMSDx, where SM is the matrix of import shares. Continuing on, however, the domestic output SD x requires additional domestic output as inputs: SDSDx, which necessitates additional imports: SMSDSDx. And so on and so on. Adding all
OCR for page 44
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports these together, one obtains the direct and indirect imports embodied in exports as: This calculation rests on three problematic assumptions: supply chain transformation, timing, and fixed shares. First, the calculation implicitly assumes that there is no transformation of the product at each stage of processing—the first-stage machinery produced within manufacturing and sold to farmers is indistinguishable from second-stage processed food that is also produced with manufacturing using first-stage inputs provided by agriculture. It is the assumption of no transformation that allows one to use the same input-output requirements matrix at every stage. Second, the calculation assumes that the passing of product back and forth among sectors occurs instantaneously or at least rapidly enough that almost all the passing back and forth can occur within the period of time to which the input-output table applies, typically a year. Third, the input-output fractions are treated as fixed “constants of nature” that are, in particular, not responsive to price changes. Bidirectional or Unidirectional Supply Chains It seems logical to assume that after each stage of processing products are changed and the destinations are changed. But the calculation of direct plus indirect inputs assumes that there is no change in the destinations matrix and no change in the input requirements matrix. With exports that require domestically produced inputs, what amount of imports are needed to produce those domestically produced products? The answer can be found by merely multiplying the domestically produced inputs by the import requirements matrix, as if these coefficients describe a production technology for transforming imported inputs and domestic inputs into output. The repeated applicability of the same destination matrix would make more sense if the supply chains implicit in the input-output table were unidirectional rather than looping back and forth as they do because the input-output use matrix includes the sale of every sector to every other sector: for example, agriculture, manufacturing and finance all sell outputs to each other (see Figure 2-3). Although these bidirectional sales clearly occur in an accounting sense, much of what appears to be bidirectional is an artifact of the product cat-
OCR for page 45
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports FIGURE 2-3 Illustration of how supply chains loop around because of bidirectional sales between each sector in the input-output data matrix. egories. An alternative model would have a unidirectional supply chain that distinguishes, for example, tractors that are sold to agriculture from processed food sold to final consumers (see Figure 2-4). Timing Issues The timing of the imports to produce exports is another potentially important issue since supply chains can be stretched greatly over time. For example, U.S. exports of machinery may come back as finished goods imports years later, and U.S. imports of machinery may contribute to export value years later. An input-output table does not allow one to explore the FIGURE 2-4 Illustration of a unidirectional supply chain that separates manufacturing into a sector that sells only to final consumers (processed food) and a sector that sells only to farmers (tractors).
OCR for page 46
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports timing issues, and the calculation of direct and indirect imported inputs implicitly assumes that all value added is created in the year to which the input-output table applies. If the supply chain is stretched over many years, the current values of the earliest inputs need to be adjusted upward (depending on the interest rate) to properly account for the “capital” value of those inputs. In addition, if a multiyear supply chain is experiencing significant changes, because of changes in the sources of capital equipment or because of business cycle swings of demand for capital equipment, the current input-output table may give a misleading picture of the part of the foreign content of U.S. exports that is due to input-output relationships in earlier years. Although there is no evidence regarding the importance of this timing issue, the study of global supply chains would ideally allow for the fact that supply chains are stretched over time as well as across country borders and the input-output table could be expanded to allow inputs distinguished by year of purchase.6 Price Data and Price Responses Full understanding of global supply chains requires measurement of prices as a product is passed from one stage of processing to another. Any policy change will have price effects, and there is no way to know the response to that change without knowledge of prices and without studies of the responsiveness to price changes of final sales and production methods, including the choice of inputs and the geographical organization of supply chains. Measuring Content for Services Developments in information technologies, most notably the Internet, have led to several key conceptual challenges in tracking the international trade in services. First, information, software, or advice need not be relegated to a physical carrier medium in order to be traded. For example, software need not be put on a diskette or disk drive to be traded or used internationally. It can be transmitted electronically across international po- 6 See Eaton and Kortum (2001) for a method of linking the input-output table to investment data.
OCR for page 47
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports litical boundaries. Second, the organization and codification of complex information can reduce the specific knowledge needed to use the information. For example, an on-screen menu system in a customer-service center is a tool that replicates expert knowledge so that people with less knowledge can use a system. Third, software programming technologies and management now divide software into stages of design, coding, integration of parts, fixing bugs, and customer interface with the final product. By and large, the existing trade tracking and classification systems do not yet take account of these developments. For example, how can trade in services be tracked when the international trade does not involve a physical carrier medium for the service activity and the service activity is an intermediate and therefore separable from the ultimate consumer. The Internet and information technologies clearly allow there to be no physical trade by buyer or seller and many of the products are not “final.” Other classification issues arise in the context of trade in services. First, the classification may not be by activity, but by product. So software programming, for instance, could be scattered among a variety of products rather than be measured as a particular activity in its own right. Second, it may be difficult to obtain data on digital transactions through surveys because corporations may keep data on activity by business line, not by international boundary or activity or cost. For example, there may be data on computer maintenance and repair that it is not separated from customer service costs. Or there may be data on customer service costs, but not where the service originates—Idaho or Ireland. Digitalization could mean that businesses may not know the residency of some activities, particularly final service sales. A business may collect data on overall management and telecommunications costs, but not separate them by business line, or it may separate them from the labor cost component of, say, customer service or programming. Although some of these questions are not new and have been addressed in the context of domestic data on services, the issues will become increasingly relevant to address in the context of collecting and constructing international data (see Fraumeni, 2000). There is no accepted international statistical standard for the classification of many cross-border services. The lack of such a widely agreed upon and implemented system can lead to mismatches between data on imports to the United States with data gathered by foreign agencies on exports to the United States—making the use of such data for content analysis dubious at best.
OCR for page 48
Analyzing the U.S. Content of Imports and the Foreign Content of Exports CALCULATING THE U.S. CONTENT OF IMPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES Measuring the U.S. content of imports to the United States is a more difficult problem than measuring the foreign content of U.S. exports because there is no consistent set of input-output tables for U.S. trading partners. Hummels, Isihii, and Yi (2001) have considered how to estimate the U.S. content of imports to the United States. Consider the example of U.S.-manufactured electronic components that are exported to Korea for the assembly of personal computers that, in turn, are exported back to the United States as finished goods. Hummels, Isihii, and Yi (2001) denote the measurement of the value of exports that are embodied in a second country’s exports as VS1. In terms of this report, VS1 measures the value of the U.S. exports in the goods exported from a second country back to the United States. Figure 2-2 shows a schematic of measuring the U.S. content of imports VS1. VS1 is very difficult to measure because for each trading partner the value of U.S. exports to Country 2 that are used as inputs into producing that country’s exports to the United States needs to be calculated. There are no available data to aggregate the calculation of VS1 across all sectors. CONCLUSION: The foreign content of U.S. product exports can be estimated by proxy and with some accuracy given available data and assumptions regarding the similarity of imported intermediate inputs (e.g., parts) and U.S.-produced intermediate inputs. The measurement of the U.S. content of U.S. imports of products cannot be done with confidence because there is no reliable way of tracking U.S. exports that are subsequently incorporated into imports in one form or another. For services, calculating such content is even more difficult because of data limitations, including different classification systems, incomplete coverage of international trade, and a key assumption (of similar domestic and international technology ratios) that is clearly not true.
Representative terms from entire chapter: