pened three weeks back. Say, for instance, that on each of the last three Friday nights, a majority of people went to the bar. They were therefore the losers, as the minority of players avoided the crowd by staying at home. Your strategy for next Friday might be to go to the bar, figuring that after three loser trips in a row most people will decide to stay home and the bar will be less crowded. On the other hand, your strategy might be to go based only on the results of the past week, regardless of what happened the two weeks before.
At the start of the game, each agent gets a set of possible strategies like these, and then keeps track of which strategies work better than others. Over time, the agents will learn to use the strategies that work the best most often. As a result, the behavior of all the players becomes coordinated, and eventually attendance at the bar will fluctuate around the 50-50 point—on some Fridays a minority will go to the bar, and on some a slight majority, but attendance will never be too far off from the 50-50 split.
You don’t have to be a drinker to appreciate the usefulness of the minority game for describing social situations. It’s not just about going to bars—the same principles apply to all sorts of situations where people would prefer to be in a minority. You can imagine many such scenarios in economics, for instance, such as when it’s better to be a buyer or a seller. If there are more sellers than buyers, you have the advantage if you’re a buyer—in the minority.
Further work on the minority game has shown that in some circumstances it is possible to predict which choice is likely to be in the minority on next Friday night. It depends on how many players there are and how good their memory is. As the number of players goes down (or their memory capacity goes up), at some point the outcome is no longer random and can be predicted with some degree of statistical confidence.
While the minority game provides a good example of using (modified) game theory to model group behaviors, it still leaves a lot to