CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY ACCESSIBILITY




Committee on Critical Technology Accessibility

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Critical Technology Accessibility CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY ACCESSIBILITY Committee on Critical Technology Accessibility Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Critical Technology Accessibility THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This is a report of work supported by Contract HHM40205D0011 between the Department of Defense and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-10146-8 Limited copies are available from: Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3118 Additional copies are available from: The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Lockbox 285 Washington, DC 20001 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Critical Technology Accessibility THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Critical Technology Accessibility COMMITTEE ON CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY ACCESSIBILITY ROBERT J. HERMANN, Chair, Global Technology Partners, LLC PIERRE A. CHAO, Center for Strategic and International Studies ANTHONY J. DeMARIA, Coherent, Inc. EDSEL D. DUNFORD, TRW (retired) CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN, Wayne State University School of Medicine JOSEPH F. GROSSON, Lockheed Martin Corporation ALFONSO VELOSA III, Gartner, Inc. Staff MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead Board Director DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director CARTER W. FORD, Research Associate LaSHAWN N. SIDBURY, Senior Program Associate

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Critical Technology Accessibility Preface The questions posed in the task for this study are part of a very broad and important set of issues for the Department of Defense. To answer them required the Committee on Critical Technology Accessibility to develop its own perspective about the context within which the questions could be placed. As a result, this report provides judgments and recommendations about both the specific questions and the broader context. I wish to express my appreciation to the members of the committee for their contributions to the preparation of this report. The committee is also grateful to the staff of the Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency for its sponsorship and active participation throughout the study. The committee greatly appreciates the support and assistance of National Research Council staff members Michael Clarke, Daniel Talmage, Carter Ford, and LaShawn Sidbury in the production of this report. Robert J. Hermann, Chair Committee on Critical Technology Accessibility

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Critical Technology Accessibility Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Charles B. Duke, Xerox Corporation (retired), Jacques S. Gansler, University of Maryland, Donald A. Hicks, Hicks & Associates (retired), Anita K. Jones, University of Virginia, George Muellner, Boeing Phantom Works, Alton D. Romig, Jr., Sandia National Laboratories, and Joel S. Yudkin, Consultant. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William H. Press, Los

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Critical Technology Accessibility Alamos National Laboratory. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Critical Technology Accessibility Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1     CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY ACCESSIBILITY   11      Background,   11      Introduction to the Issue,   12      How to Answer the Questions,   15     Question A: What Is the Risk of Denial of Critical Products from Foreign Sources?,   17     Question B: How Can the Future U.S. Industrial Base Be Managed to Assure Access to Critical Products and Technologies?,   21      Current Capabilities,   22      Future Industries,   23      Using Both Global and Captive Domestic Sources,   24      The Role of Systems Integration,   25      Managing the Exploitation of Globalized Commercial Markets,   30      Placing Trust in Foreign-Supplied Components, Software, and Services,   32      A Strategic Approach,   34      Key Assessments,   34      Addressing Strategic and Critical Capabilities,   35

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Critical Technology Accessibility      A Management Strategy,   39      Recommendations,   42      References,   45      Published,   45      Unpublished,   46     APPENDIXES         A   Biographical Sketches of Committee Members   49     B   Presentations to the Committee   55     C   Previous Reports on Globalization and the U.S. Military Industrial Base   58

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Critical Technology Accessibility Acronyms ARCI Navy’s Acoustic Rapid COTS Insertion (program) AT&L Acquisition Technology and Logistics COTS commercial off-the-shelf DIA Defense Intelligence Agency DIBCS Defense Industrial Base Capabilities Study DoD Department of Defense DSB Defense Science Board DUSD Deputy Under Secretary of Defense GDP gross domestic product HUMINT human intelligence IC integrated circuit IT information technology JDAM Joint Direct Attach Munition NRC National Research Council OODA observe, orient, decide, act PCB printed circuit board TIGER Standing Committee on Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review TWD Technology Warning Division

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Critical Technology Accessibility Boxes 1-1   Statement of Task,   12 1-2   Excerpt from Annual Industrial Capabilities Report to Congress,   13 1-3   Example of Systems Integration,   26