APPENDIX G-3
ESTIMATING DEMAND-RESPONSE POTENTIAL

The estimated potential for demand-response programs to reduce peak demand in the Indian Point area is based on the experience to date with three NYSERDA programs that avoided a total of 700 MW of peak demand in the state of New York in 2004.

The first step in the estimating process involved apportioning the 700 MW of peak reduction to Zones I, J, and K. Table 4.1 of the Comprehensive Reliability Planning Process Draft Reliability Needs Assessment (NYISO, 2005) was used as the basis for the apportionment. It provides the approximate summer peak loads by zone in New York State, but aggregates three zones (G, H, and I) into the “Lower Hudson Valley.” After apportioning that value to Zone I, it is estimated that Zones I, J, and K have 17,697 MW of peak load, or 55 percent of the statewide total (31,770 MW). Thus, it can be estimated that Zones I, J, and K could account for 55 percent of the 700 MW of peak reduction from demand-response programs in 2004, or 385 MW.

The second step in the estimating process involves adjusting the 385 MW to reflect what might be achieved if the three 2004 demand-response programs of NYSERDA were doubled in budget. The committee assumed diminishing returns, such that a doubling of budget delivers an increment of only 50 percent. This brings the estimated potential for expanded summer peak reduction to approximately 200 MW. It is assumed that these load reductions could be achieved by the year 2010, since demand reductions can be achieved quickly.

As with efficiency, it takes time to expand demand-response program activities, to attract more program participants, and to purchase and install new demand-response equipment. Therefore, it is assumed that only 50 MW of additional peak reduction could be achieved in 2007, increasing to 200 MW by 2010. It is also assumed that the project increases in potential for the years 2013 (275 MW) and 2015 (300 MW).

Reference

NYISO. 2005. Comprehensive Reliability Planning Process and Draft Reliability Needs Assessment. September 1.



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