TABLE 2-1 Weather-Normalized Annual Electricity Use, Past and Forecast, in Gigawatt-Hours per Year, for Three New York Regions and Statewide, Selected Years from 1993 Through 2015

Year

Lower Hudson Valley: NYCA Zones G, H, Ia

New York City: NYCA Zone J

Long Island: NYCA Zone K

New York State: NYCA

1993

16,411

41,828

17,667

144,471

1997

16,206

44,676

18,185

148,008

2001

17,207

49,912

20,728

155,523

2005

19,625

52,836

23,178

164,050

2009

20,775

56,345

25,258

174,290

2013

22,610

58,949

26,598

180,710

2015

23,608

59,717

26,961

182,880

Growth per year:

 

 

 

 

1993-2004

1.421%

2.071%

2.222%

1.004%

2004-2015

1.913%

1.194%

1.659%

1.151%

aNYCA, New York Control Area; Zone G, Hudson Valley; Zone H, Northern Westchester County; Zone I, rest of Westchester County.

SOURCE: Adapted from NYISO (2005a), p. 25.

TABLE 2-2 Weather-Normalized Summer Peak Power, Past and Forecast, in Megawatts, for Three New York Regions and Statewide, Selected Years from 1993 Through 2015

Year

Lower Hudson Valley: NYCA Zones G, H, Ia

New York City: NYCA Zone J

Long Island: NYCA Zone K

New York State: NYCA

1993

3,337

8,365

3,595

27,000

1997

3,650

9,609

4,273

28,400

2001

4,421

10,424

4,901

30,780

2005

4,410

11,315

5,230

31,960

2009

4,849

11,965

5,580

33,770

2013

5,331

12,426

5,981

35,180

2015

5,590

12,648

6,112

35,670

Growth per year:

 

 

 

 

1993-2004

2.365%

2.610%

3.270%

1.382%

2004-2015

2.380%

1.190%

1.618%

1.166%

aNYCA, New York Control Area; Zone G, Hudson Valley; Zone H, Northern Westchester County; Zone I, rest of Westchester County.

SOURCE: Adapted from NYISO (2005a), p. 26.

posed projects. Natural gas is discussed further in Chapter 3. If these supplies do not materialize, prices will rise and electricity costs will follow.

  1. Even if the costs of production can be defined well, the wholesale price is a function of the auctions that NYISO conducts to procure supplies, as discussed in Chapters 1, 4, and 5. Price can be either above or below historic levels, depending on how many bidders are participating. The long-term impact of the New York process on prices to consumers is still uncertain.

Overall, if the price decline projected to start in 2006 does not occur, demand will be lower.

NYISO’s new capacity-forecasting program is more rigorous than in the past, but even the best demand forecasts are not destiny. They are simply estimates, based on guesses about a host of parameters, which may prove to be too high or too low. Price increases, economic downturns, changes in fuel prices and availability, policy changes, and technological advance have all contributed to surprises in years past. Both in the 1970s and in late 1980s, serious power shortages were forecast for New York unless particular power plants



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