In terms of trends, the criteria might include
the number of governments that do not embrace appeasement policies
the number of defectors from the terrorist ranks
the terrorist’s level of Internet activity, including the number of Web sites and use
the amount of media coverage they receive
the number of supporters and recruits they gain
A related issue here is how our policies affect popular support and recruiting. For example, we entered Iraq, anti-U.S. sentiment skyrocketed; when we rescued tsunami victims, pro-U.S. sentiment jumped in Indonesia.
The issue of momentum is important as well. Is there a point at which an ideological movement loses momentum and falls apart? Is this the bottom line we aim for?
In conclusion, let us ask: Are we making progress? What is progress, and equally important, what is not progress? How do you suggest we define progress or the lack thereof? I look forward to your questions and comments.3
Since the delivery of this presentation, the author has completed a more detailed study on this topic. See Combating Terrorism: The Challenge of Measuring Effectiveness. Congressional Research Service report RL33160, available on the U.S. Department of State Web site at http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/57513.pdf.