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We need to include the analysis of terrorism risks and terrorist mechanisms for initiating extreme situations in the range of problems being considered. This requires developing and adapting existing models and methods for studying catastrophes so that they account for the special characteristics of their initiation by unauthorized and terrorist actions that could be taken to strike at the most vulnerable and significant targets critically important for the national security infrastructure.

In order to analyze risk and security with the possibility of terrorist actions, it is first necessary to compare the initiation stage of the extreme situation through terrorist actions and the changes and structure of impact factors of the terrorist act with those in a traditional emergency caused by a natural or industrial disaster.

It should also be noted that the modern strategy for ensuring natural and industrial safety, which calls for focusing efforts not on eliminating the consequences of extreme situations but on predicting and preventing them, must also be extended to cover situations in which emergencies are triggered through terrorist actions. In this case, scientific developments regarding methods for managing the risks of terrorism must be accorded great significance in integrated risk management mechanisms.

CLASSIFICATION OF ACCIDENTS AND CATASTROPHIC SITUATIONS

The failure to provide for basic characteristics of reliability, resources, and safety regarding a range of criteria and reserve capacities leads to the possibility of accidents and catastrophic situations arising and developing at all stages of the creation and exploitation of complex technical systems. Over the past decade, institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, Ministry of Industry and Science, State Mining and Industrial Inspectorate,2 Atomic Energy Inspectorate, and Ministry of Education have synthesized a substantial volume of fundamental information on accidents and catastrophes of an industrial, natural/industrial, and natural character as part of the State Scientific-Technical Program for Safety for the Population and Economic Objects Considering the Risk of Natural and Industrial Disasters (SSTP Safety). In carrying out this program, participants analyzed and generalized information on the basic characteristics, conditions, and scenarios for the outbreak of accidents and catastrophes in the natural and industrial spheres engendered by complex dangerous phenomena and processes in various regions of the world. Potentially dangerous facilities and natural processes might create catastrophes in the

2

Translator’s Note: On March 9, 2004, Gosgortekhnadzor was transformed into the Federal Technological Inspection Service. On May 20, 2004, the latter was transformed into the Federal Ecological, Technological, and Atomic Inspection Service.



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