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Beven, K. J. 1989. Changing ideas in hydrology—the case of physically-based models. Journal of Hydrology 105:157-172.

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Carpenter, T. M., J. A. Sperfslage, K. P. Georgakakos, T. Sweeney, and D. L. Fread. 1999. National threshold runoff estimation utilizing GIS in support of operational flash flood warning systems. Journal of Hydrology 224:21-44.

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Changnon, D. 2000. Who used and benefited from the El Niño forecasts? Pp. 109-135 in El Niño 1997-1998: The Climate Event of the Century, S. A. Changnon, ed. New York: Oxford University Press.

Changnon, S. A. 2002. Impacts of the midwestern drought forecasts of 2000. Journal of Applied Meteorology 41(10):1042-1052.

Changnon, S. A. 2005. Applied climatology: The golden age has begun. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86:915-919.

Changnon, S. A., J. M. Changnon, and D. Changnon. 1995. Uses and applications of climate forecasts for power utilities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76:711-720.

Charba, J. P. 1998. The LAMP QPF products. Part I: Model development. Weather and Forecasting 13:934-965.

Chatfield, C. 1995. Model Uncertainty, Data Mining and Statistical Inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 158A:419-466.

Cheng, W. Y. Y., and W. R. Cotton. 2004. Sensitivity of a cloud-resolving simulation of the genesis of a mesoscale convective system to horizontal heterogeneities in soil moisture initialization. Journal of Hydro-meteorology 5(5):934-958.

Colle, B. A., J. B. Olson, and J. S. Tongue. 2003a. Multiseason verification of the MM5. Part I: Comparison with the Eta model over the central and eastern United States and impact of MM5 resolution. Weather and Forecasting 18(3):431-457.

Colle, B. A., J. B. Olson, and J. S. Tongue. 2003b. Multiseason verification of the MM5. Part II: Evaluation of high-resolution precipitation forecasts over the northeastern United States. Weather and Forecasting 18(3):458-480.

Cooke, W. E. 1906. Weighting forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 34:274-275.

Damasio, A. R. 1994. Descartes’ Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain. New York: Putnam.

Day, G. N. 1985. Extended streamflow forecasting using the NWS-RFS. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 111(2):157-170.

De Elia, R., and R. Laprise. 2005a. Diversity in interpretations of probability: implications for weather forecasting. Monthly Weather Review 133:1129-1143.

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Draper, D. 1995. Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 57B:45-97.



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Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts References AMS (American Meteorological Society). 2002. Enhancing weather information with probability forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83:450-452. Available at http://www.ametsoc.org/POLICY/enhancingwxprob_final.html. Accessed April 26, 2006. Anagnostou, E. N., and W. F. Krajewski. 1999. Real-time radar rainfall estimation. Part I: Algorithm formulation. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 16(2):189-197. Anderson, E. A. 1996. Hydro 17—Snow Model. NWSRFS Users Manual, Part II.2. Silver Spring, MD: NOAA National Weather Service. Baars, J. A., and C. F. Mass. 2005. Performance of National Weather Service forecasts compared to operational, consensus, and weighted model output statistics. Weather and Forecasting 20(6):1034-1047. Bernoulli, D. 1738. Specimen Theoriae Novae de Mensura Sortis. Pp. 175-192 in Commentarii Academiae Scientarium Imperialis Petropolitanae, Tomus V (Papers of the Imperial Academy of Science in Petersburg, Vol. V). Translated by L. Sommer (1954) as Exposition of a new theory of the measurement of risk. Econometrica 22:23-26. Beven, K. J. 1989. Changing ideas in hydrology—the case of physically-based models. Journal of Hydrology 105:157-172. Broad, K., T. Leiserowitz, J. Weinkle, and M. Steketee. 2006. Media and public interpretation of hurricane forecasts: Evidence from Florida 2004. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (under review). Brown, B. G., and A. H. Murphy. 1987. Quantification of uncertainty in fire-weather forecasts: Some results of operational and experimental forecasting programs. Weather and Forecasting 2:190-205. Brown, B. G., R. W. Katz, and A. H. Murphy. 1986. On the economic value of seasonal-precipitation forecasts: The fallowing/planting problem. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 67:833-841. Burnash, R. J. C. 1995. The NWS River Forecast System—Catchment Model. Chapter 10, pp. 311-365 in Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, V.P. Singh, ed. Highlands Ranch, CO: Water Resources Publications. Camerer, C., and M. Weber. 1992. Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5:325-370. Carpenter, T. M., and K. P. Georgakakos. 2004. Impacts of parametric and radar rainfall uncertainty on the ensemble streamflow simulations of a distributed hydrologic model. Journal of Hydrology 298:202-221. Carpenter, T. M., J. A. Sperfslage, K. P. Georgakakos, T. Sweeney, and D. L. Fread. 1999. National threshold runoff estimation utilizing GIS in support of operational flash flood warning systems. Journal of Hydrology 224:21-44. Chaiken, S., and Y. Trope. 1999. Dual process theories in social psychology. New York: Guilford Publications. Changnon, D. 2000. Who used and benefited from the El Niño forecasts? Pp. 109-135 in El Niño 1997-1998: The Climate Event of the Century, S. A. Changnon, ed. New York: Oxford University Press. Changnon, S. A. 2002. Impacts of the midwestern drought forecasts of 2000. Journal of Applied Meteorology 41(10):1042-1052. Changnon, S. A. 2005. Applied climatology: The golden age has begun. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86:915-919. Changnon, S. A., J. M. Changnon, and D. Changnon. 1995. Uses and applications of climate forecasts for power utilities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76:711-720. Charba, J. P. 1998. The LAMP QPF products. Part I: Model development. Weather and Forecasting 13:934-965. Chatfield, C. 1995. Model Uncertainty, Data Mining and Statistical Inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 158A:419-466. Cheng, W. Y. Y., and W. R. Cotton. 2004. Sensitivity of a cloud-resolving simulation of the genesis of a mesoscale convective system to horizontal heterogeneities in soil moisture initialization. Journal of Hydro-meteorology 5(5):934-958. Colle, B. A., J. B. Olson, and J. S. Tongue. 2003a. Multiseason verification of the MM5. Part I: Comparison with the Eta model over the central and eastern United States and impact of MM5 resolution. Weather and Forecasting 18(3):431-457. Colle, B. A., J. B. Olson, and J. S. Tongue. 2003b. Multiseason verification of the MM5. Part II: Evaluation of high-resolution precipitation forecasts over the northeastern United States. Weather and Forecasting 18(3):458-480. Cooke, W. E. 1906. Weighting forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 34:274-275. Damasio, A. R. 1994. Descartes’ Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain. New York: Putnam. Day, G. N. 1985. Extended streamflow forecasting using the NWS-RFS. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 111(2):157-170. De Elia, R., and R. Laprise. 2005a. Diversity in interpretations of probability: implications for weather forecasting. Monthly Weather Review 133:1129-1143. De Elia, R., and R. Laprise. 2005b. The unbearable lightness of probabilities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86:1224-1225. Draper, D. 1995. Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 57B:45-97.

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