generated forecasts and verifying observations, should be accessible so users can produce their own evaluation of the forecasts.

Effective Use of Testbeds17

Finding 7:18 Testbeds are emerging as a useful mechanism for developing and testing new approaches and methodologies in estimating, communicating, and using uncertainty information.19 The effectiveness of testbeds is limited when all appropriate sectors of the Enterprise are not included.


Recommendation 7: To enhance development of new methods in estimation, communication, and use of forecast uncertainty information throughout the Enterprise, and to foster and maintain collaboration, confidence, and goodwill with Enterprise partners, NOAA should more effectively use testbeds by involving all sectors of the Enterprise.

Enterprise Advisory Committee

Finding 8:20 Only through comprehensive interaction with the Enterprise will NWS be able to move toward effective and widespread estimation and communication of uncertainty information. One mechanism for engaging the entire Enterprise on this and related topics is an independent NWS advisory committee with broad representation. Such a committee is under consideration by NOAA in response to a recommendation in the Fair Weather report (NRC, 2003a).


Recommendation 8: The committee endorses the recommendation by the National Research Council Fair Weather report to establish an independent advisory committee and encourages NOAA to bring its evaluation of the recommendation to a speedy and positive conclusion.

Uncertainty Champion

Finding 9:21 Incorporating uncertainty in forecasts will require not only the attention but also the advocacy of NWS management. Given the scope of this challenge, the level of effort involved will demand a “champion” within the NWS leadership—an individual who can effectively organize and motivate NWS resources and engage the resources and expertise of the entire Enterprise.


Recommendation 9: NWS should dedicate executive attention to coordinating the estimation and communication of uncertainty information within NWS and with Enterprise partners.

17

 Testbeds are multipartner collaborations that create prototypical environments where innovative approaches can be tested before being applied more generally. They allow the community to evaluate new modes of cooperative research, development, training, and operations.

18

 See Sections 3.1.1, 3.1.6, 3.2.4, and 3.3.2.

19

For example, Joint Hurricane Testbed (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/), WRF Developmental Testbed Center (http://www.dtcenter.org/index.php), NOAA Climate Testbed (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/), NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed Program (http://hmt.noaa.gov/).

20

 See Section 4.2.6, overarching recommendation 2, and Chapter 5.

21

 See Section 1.5 and Chapter 5.



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