D
Committee Membership Biographies
Sallie Keller-McNulty, Chair, is dean of Rice University’s George R. Brown School of Engineering. She previously headed the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory, where she led a wide range of research and development (R&D) into model validation, reliability, defense analysis, and other topics. Before moving to Los Alamos, Dr. Keller-McNulty was professor and director of graduate studies at the Department of Statistics, Kansas State University, where she had been on the faculty since 1985. She spent 1994-1996 as a program officer in the National Science Foundation’s Division of Mathematical Sciences. Her ongoing areas of research focus on computational and graphical statistics applied to statistical databases, including complex data/model integration and related software and modeling techniques, and she is an expert in the area of data access. She has served on the Information Technology panel of the National Institute of Standards and Technology Board (2001-2004); the Committee on National Statistics’ Panel on Research for Future Census Methods (1999-2004); the Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications (2000-2003); the Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics (Chair, 2000-2003); and the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board’s Committee on Computing and Communications Research to Enable Better Use of Information Technology in Government (1998-2002). She is a national associate of the National Academy of Sciences and fellow of American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). She received her Ph.D. in statistics from Iowa State University of Science and Technology. She is a fellow of the American Statistical Association (ASA) and has held several positions within the ASA, including, currently, as president. She is an associate editor of Statistical Science and has served as associate editor of the Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics and the Journal of the American Statistical Association. She served on the Executive Committee of the National Institute of Statistical Sciences, on the Executive Committee of AAAS Section U, and chairs the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies, of which she is a former president.
Kirstie L. Bellman recently returned to the Aerospace Corporation after 4 years at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) to start a new bicoastal R&D center called the Aerospace Integration Sciences Center (AISC). The center serves as R&D capability for a number of the Department of Defense (DoD) and government agencies. AISC’s focus is on the development of advanced system and model integration methods, new analytic techniques, and evaluation tools for assessing the impacts of new technologies. Upon completion of her term at DARPA, Dr. Bellman received an award from the Office of the Secretary of Defense for excellence in her programs. Dr. Bellman has over 35 years of academic, industrial, and consulting experience in both laboratory research and the development of models and information architectures for large military and government programs. Her published research spans a wide range of topics in cognitive science, neuroscience, and computer science. Her recent work focuses on the use of domainspecific languages and formally based architectural description languages to design and analyze information architectures and reflective architectures that use models of themselves to manage their own resources and to reason about appropriate behavior. In this work, she has also been developing methods for modeling the organizational and technical aspects of complex systems. With a number of academic partners, she is also developing new mathematical approaches to the analysis of virtual worlds that contain collaborating humans, artificial agents, and heterogeneous representations, models, and processing tools. Dr. Bellman is an elected fellow of the AAAS.
Kathleen M. Carley is professor of computation, organizations, and society at the Institute for Software Research in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University. She also heads Carnegie Mellon’s Center for Computa-
tional Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems. Dr. Carley received a Ph.D. in sociology from Harvard University. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks, and computer science. Her specific research areas are computational social and organization theory; group, organizational, and social adaptation and evolution; dynamic network analysis; computational text analysis; and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion, and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. Her models meld multiagent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. She has developed a number of tools for extracting (AutoMap), analyzing (ORA), and reasoning about change in (Construct, DyNet) social and knowledge networks. Three of the large-scale multiagent network models she and her group have developed are BioWar, a city-scale model of weaponized biological attacks; OrgAhead, a model of strategic and natural organizational adaptation; and Construct, a model of the coevolution of social and knowledge networks and personal/ organizational identity and capability. She is the founding coeditor of the journal Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory and has coedited several books in the multiagent and dynamic social networks area. She was a member of the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations.
Paul K. Davis is a senior scientist and research leader at RAND and a professor of policy analysis in the RAND Graduate School. His current research relates to strategic planning; high-level decision support; representing adversary reasoning; capabilities-based planning; effects-based operations; deterrence in the counterterrorism era; military transformation; advanced methods for modeling and simulation, including model composability; and missile defense. Dr. Davis teaches graduate courses in defense planning, counterterrorism policy, and policy analysis of strategy problems with massive uncertainty. Dr. Davis has served on a number of studies for the Defense Science Board. He was awarded the Vance R. Wanner award by the Military Operations Research Society for lifetime achievement. Before joining RAND, Dr. Davis was a senior executive in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He holds a B.S. from the University of Michigan and a Ph.D. in chemical physics from MIT. He was at one time a member of the NRC’s Naval Studies Board and served on several of its committees.
Richard Ivanetich is Institute Fellow at the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), having been appointed to that position in 2003. His experience spans a number of areas of defense systems, technology, and operations analyses, relating primarily to computer and information systems, command-and-control systems and procedures, modeling and simulation of systems and forces, crisis management, and strategic and theater nuclear forces. His previous positions at IDA include director of the Computer and Software Engineering Division (1990-2002) and assistant director of the System Evaluation Division (1985-1990). Prior to joining IDA in 1975, Dr. Ivanetich was assistant professor of physics at Harvard University (1969-1974). He has served on numerous scientific boards and advisory committees, among them the NRC’s Naval Studies Board (1998-2004) and the DARPA Information Science and Technology study group (1990-2004).
Kathryn B. Laskey is a professor of systems engineering and operations research at George Mason University. She received her master’s degree in mathematics from the University of Michigan and her Ph.D. in statistics and public affairs from Carnegie Mellon University. Dr. Laskey studies Bayesian inference and decision theory, multisource fusion, uncertainty in artificial intelligence, and situation assessment. Her broad research interest is the use of information technology to support better inference and decision making. Within this area, her interests lie in understanding the proper role of normative, behavioral, and computational theories in the modeling and support of decision making. Dr. Laskey is a research fellow with the Krasnow Institute for Cognitive Science at George Mason University (GMU) and associate director of the Center of Excellence in Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence at GMU. She has been on several NRC committees, including the committee that wrote the 2001-2002 study on scientific evidence on the polygraph.
R. Bowen Loftin is vice president and chief executive officer of Texas A&M University at Galveston. He has worked extensively in the academic community as a researcher, instructor, and mentor. In 1977 he joined the faculty of the University of Houston-Downtown. In 1994 he founded the NASA/University of Houston Virtual Environments Research Institute and in 1999 became the chair of the Department of Computer Science at the University of Houston. He received the University of Houston-Downtown Excellence in Teaching Award in 1982 and the Excellence in Service Award in 1984 and 1985. For the past 5 years he has served as executive director of a research center at Old Dominion University in Virginia while also managing the university’s multidisciplinary graduate degree programs in modeling and simulation. Under his tenure there, the master’s student enrollment increased to over 50 students and the doctoral student population increased from 2 to over 40 students. His major field of research is modeling, analysis, and simulation. He holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in physics from Rice University and a B.S. in physics from Texas A&M University. He has written numerous articles on topics as varied as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and computer-aided training and simulations. He has won multiple awards, including various NASA awards for inventions, publications, and public service in 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1995.
GEN David M. Maddox (retired), U.S. Army, is a retired four-star general who currently works as a consultant. A member of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE), GEN Maddox has expertise in operations research, simulation and modeling, logistics, joint operations/warfighting, organizational design, and materiel requirements. He retired from the U.S. Army in 1995 after serving as commander in chief, U.S. Army in Europe. Since that time, he has performed extensive consulting work on concepts, systems requirements, analytic techniques and analyses, operations and systems effectiveness, and program capture strategies to civilian corporations, government agencies, and defense industries. GEN Maddox has had extensive command experience. He served four tours in Germany, during which he commanded at every level from platoon through Army group and theater. Following command at platoon and troop level in the 14th Armored Cavalry Regiment (ACR), he commanded the 1st Squadron, the 11th ACR in Fulda, the 2nd ACR (he was the 61st Colonel of the Regiment) in Nuremberg, the 18th Infantry Division (mechanized) in Bad Kreuznach, the V Corps in Frankfurt, and NATO’s Central Army Group and the U.S. Army in Europe, Heidelberg, and the 7th Army in Heidelberg.
Dennis K. McBride is president of the nonprofit Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. He was a career Navy scientist specializing in modeling and simulation, particularly cognitive modeling, maintenance ergonomics modeling, and tactical air system discrete event modeling. He served as a DARPA program manager and a program officer at the Office of Naval Research. Dr. McBride helped to write the legislation that created the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, the sponsor of this study. He chaired the NRC Panel on Engineering for Complex Systems (2002-2003) and was a member of the NRC committee that reviewed NASA’s Pioneering Revolutionary Technology (PRT) Program (2002-2003).
COL Michael McGinnis joined Old Dominion University in June 2006 as the executive director of the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center. Prior to assuming this position Brigadier McGinnis served for 7 years as professor and head of the Systems Engineering Department, U.S. Military Academy at West Point. His previous Army modeling, simulation, and analysis assignments include director of the U.S. Army Unit Manning Task Force, director of the U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, and director of the U.S. Military Academy Operations Research Center. He has served on key government engineering, modeling, simulation, and analysis committees to bring about change at the Army and DoD levels. Dr. McGinnis is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy and has M.S. degrees in applied mathematics and operations research from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and a Ph.D. from the University of Arizona in systems and industrial engineering. He attended the Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth and the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, where he earned an M.A. in national security and strategic studies. Dr. McGinnis’s professional and scholarly body of work includes three national awards and over 40 published and peerreviewed papers published during 17 years of working in the fields of systems engineering and operations research. Dr. McGinnis has been honored with the 1995 Military Operations Research Society Rist Prize, the 2004 Military Operations Research Society Barchi Prize, and the best paper award for the 2005 Interservice/Industry Training, Simulation and Education Conference Research and Development Track.
Stephen Pollock is Herrick Emeritus Professor of Manufacturing and Emeritus Professor of Industrial and Operations Engineering at the University of Michigan. He taught courses in decision analysis, mathematical modeling, dynamic programming, and stochastic processes. Dr. Pollock’s recent research has included developing cost-optimal monitoring and maintenance policies, sequential hypothesis testing, modeling large multiserver systems, and adaptive optimization of radiation treatment plans under uncertainty. He is the recent past director of the University of Michigan’s Program in Financial Engineering and its Engineering Global Leadership honors program. He has served as area editor of Operations Research, senior editor of IIE Transactions, president (1986) of the Operations Research Society of America, and a senior fellow of the University of Michigan Society of Fellows. Dr. Pollock is a founding fellow of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, was awarded its Kimball Medal in 2002, and was elected to the NAE in 2003. Among his many NRC activities, he chaired a recent study on the test and evaluation plans for the Army’s Stryker family of vehicles.
David R. Pratt is the chief scientist (fellow) for Science Applications International Corporation’s (SAIC’s) Strategies Simulation and Training business unit. As a vice president for technology, his responsibilities include developing and fostering continued leading-edge information technology and modeling and simulation technologies. He provides both strategic and tactical guidance in technical and programmatic matters. With a research base of over $6 million per year, he oversees both internal and external research projects. Recently, these research projects have included robotics, evolutionary algorithms, synthetic agent behaviors, language performance studies, data management and distribution, data warehousing and mining, user interface, and multithreading/multiprocessing. Dr. Pratt also serves as the forces modeling and simulation point of contact for DoD’s High Performance Computing Modernization Program. Before joining SAIC, Dr. Pratt was the technical director for the largest simulation software effort ever undertaken by the DoD, the Joint
Simulation System. Formerly a tenured associate professor of computer science at the Naval Postgraduate School and adjunct teaching instructor at the University of Central Florida, he has an extensive academic background that includes over 50 publications and $5 million of external academic research funding.
Stephen M. Robinson is professor of industrial and systems engineering at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he has been a member of the faculty since 1972. He has a collateral appointment as professor of computer sciences, and has held administrative appointments as chair of the Department of Industrial Engineering and as assistant director of the Mathematics Research Center. His research specialty is mathematical programming (methods for making the best use of limited resources, applied in logistics, transportation, manufacturing, and many other areas). He is author, coauthor, or editor of seven books and 91 scientific research papers and has directed numerous funded research projects at the University. His research accomplishments have been recognized by the award of the honorary doctor’s degree from the University of Zürich, Switzerland, the George B. Dantzig Prize of the Mathematical Programming Society and the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, and the John K. Walker, Jr., Award of the Military Operations Research Society. He is a fellow of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). Dr. Robinson has been an elected member of the councils of the Operations Research Society of America (now INFORMS) and of the Mathematical Programming Society, and he also served for 4 years as secretary and, concurrently, as a member of the board of directors of INFORMS. He has also been an editor of several scientific journals and has served on numerous governmental and professional advisory committees. He is a former trustee of the Village of Shorewood Hills, Wisconsin, and from 1991 to 2002 he served on the board of overseers of Simon’s Rock College, Great Barrington, Massachusetts. Dr. Robinson is also a retired colonel in the Army of the United States and a graduate of the U.S. Army War College. Prior to joining the University of Wisconsin-Madison he served on active duty for 6 years as a regular Army officer. He is a current member of the NRC’s Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications.
Detlof von Winterfeldt is a professor of public policy and management in the School of Policy, Planning, and Development (SPPD) at the University of Southern California (USC) and the director of USC’s Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorist Events (CREATE). For the past 25 years, he has been active in teaching, research, university administration, and consulting. He has taught courses in statistics, decision analysis, risk management, and human judgment and decision making. His research interests are in the foundation and practice of decision and risk analysis as applied to technology, the environment, and national security problems. He is the coauthor of two books and author or coauthor of over 100 articles and reports on these topics. His administrative experiences include serving as deputy dean of SPPD, as director of USC’s Institute for Civic Enterprise, and as chairman of USC’s Systems Science Department. As a consultant he has applied decision and risk analysis to many management problems of government and private industry. In 2000, he received the Ramsey Medal for distinguished contributions to decision analysis from the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS. He is a fellow of INFORMS and of the Society for Risk Analysis. Dr. von Winterfeldt received his Ph.D. from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, in mathematical psychology. He has served on a number of NRC study committees and recently finished a term on the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications.
Michael Zyda is the director of the GamePipe Laboratory at USC’s Viterbi School of Engineering, a professor of engineering practice in the USC Department of Computer Science, and a staff member of USC’s Information Sciences Institute, located in Marina del Rey, California. From fall 2000 to fall 2004, he was the founding director of the MOVES Institute, located at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, and a professor in the Department of Computer Science at NPS as well. From 1986 until the founding of the MOVES Institute, he was the director of the NPSNET Research Group. Dr. Zyda’s research interests include computer graphics; large-scale, networked 3-D virtual environments; agent-based simulation; modeling human and organizational behavior; interactive computer-generated story, modeling and simulation; and interactive games. He is a pioneer in computer graphics, networked virtual environments, modeling and simulation, and serious games. He is a member of the Academy of Interactive Arts and Sciences. He served as the principal investigator and development director of the America’s Army PC game funded by the assistant secretary of the army for manpower and reserve affairs. He took America’s Army from conception to three million plus registered players, transforming Army recruiting. Dr. Zyda chaired a major NRC study that examined the potential interface between the entertainment industry and the military.
