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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This is a report of work supported by Grant No. FA9550-05-1-0489. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.
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International Standard Book Number-13 978-0-309-10219-3
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
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COMMITTEE ON FUTURE AIR FORCE NEEDS FOR SURVIVABILITY
LESLIE KENNE KENNE, Chair,
LK Associates, Fairfax, Virginia
SETH BONDER BONDER,
The Bonder Group, Ann Arbor, Michigan
JOHN J. CAMPBELL,
General Electric Aviation, Cincinnati, Ohio
BENNETT M. CROSWELL,
Pratt & Whitney, East Hartford, Connecticut
ALEC GALLIMORE,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
CHARLES L. GUTHRIE,
Northrop Grumman Integrated Systems, El Segundo, California
NEIL G. KACENA,
Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company, Palmdale, California
GREGORY S. MARTIN,
GS Martin Consulting, Woodland Park, Colorado
JESSE T. McMAHAN,
Modern Technology Solutions, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia
ROBERT A. MOORE,
DST, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia
DAVID M. VAN WIE,
Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, Maryland
ALAN R. WIECHMAN,
The Boeing Company, St. Louis, Missouri
MICHAEL I. YARYMOVYCH,
Sarasota Space Associates, Osprey, Florida
Staff
MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Director,
CARTER FORD, Research Associate
WILLIAM CAMPBELL, Senior Program Associate
GREGORY EYRING, Consultant
LaNITA R. JONES, Senior Program Assistant
AIR FORCE STUDIES BOARD
LAWRENCE J. DELANEY, Chair,
Titan Corporation (ret.), Reston, Virginia
R. NOEL LONGUEMARE, Vice Chair,
Consultant, Ellicott City, Maryland
FRANK J. CAPPUCCIO,
Lockheed Martin Corporation, Fort Worth, Texas
THOMAS DARCY,
EADS North America Defense Company, Arlington, Virginia
STEVEN D. DORFMAN,
Hughes Electronics (ret.), Los Angeles, California
PAMELA A. DREW,
Boeing Integrated Defense Systems, Seattle, Washington
KENNETH E. EICKMANN, Consultant,
Austin, Texas
JOHN V. FARR,
Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey
RAND H. FISHER,
Titan Corporation, Reston, Virginia
JACQUELINE GISH,
Northrop Grumman, Redondo Beach, California
KENNETH C. HALL,
Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
WESLEY L. HARRIS,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
LESLIE KENNE,
LK Associates, Fairfax, Virginia
DONALD J. KUTYNA,
North American Aerospace Defense Command (ret.), Colorado Springs, Colorado
TAYLOR W. LAWRENCE,
Raytheon Company, Waltham, Massachusetts
GREGORY S. MARTIN,
GS Martin Consulting, Woodland Park, Colorado
DEBASIS MITRA,
Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, New Jersey
CHANDRA N. KUMAR PATEL,
University of California, Los Angeles
RICHARD R. PAUL,
The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington
ROBERT F. RAGGIO,
Dayton Aerospace, Inc., Dayton, Ohio
GENE W. RAY,
GMT Ventures, La Jolla, California
ELI RESHOTKO, Professor Emeritus,
Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
LOURDES SALAMANCA-RIBA,
University of Maryland, College Park
MARVIN R. SAMBUR,
Headquarters, U.S. Air Force (ret.), Potomac, Maryland
LYLE H. SCHWARTZ,
Air Force Office of Scientific Research (ret.), Chevy Chase, Maryland
EUGENE L. TATTINI,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
Staff
MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Director
JAMES C. GARCIA, Senior Program Officer
DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, Program Officer
CARTER FORD, Research Associate
DEANNA SPARGER, Program Administrative Coordinator
CHRIS JONES, Financial Associate
WILLIAM CAMPBELL, Senior Program Associate
LaSHAWN SIDBURY, Program Associate
LaNITA R. JONES, Senior Program Assistant
Preface
The chair wishes to thank the members of this committee for generously taking time from their demanding schedules and working hard to complete this report in the short time allotted. As noted in Chapter 1 in the section “Scope and Committee Approach,” in the time available the committee could not address all aspects of the statement of task as fully as it would have liked, but it put its emphasis where it felt that the issues were most important.
The entire committee thanks the many organizations and guest speakers that provided excellent briefings and background information, and wants to single out for special appreciation the support provided by the Secretary of the Air Force’s Special Programs Office (AQL). The security requirements associated with this effort presented many challenges to the staff and committee members in completing this work, which could not have been accomplished without AQL’s assistance and that of the security personnel of the National Academies.
Finally, the committee thanks the National Research Council staff members who supported the study. Primary among them were Michael Clarke, LaNita Jones, William Campbell, Gregory Eyring, and Carter Ford.
Leslie Kenne, Chair
Committee on Future Air Force Needs for Survivability
ROLE OF THE BOARD
The Air Force Studies Board (AFSB) was established in 1996 by the National Academies at the request of the United States Air Force. The AFSB brings to bear broad military, industrial, and academic scientific, engineering, and management expertise on Air Force technical challenges and other issues of importance to senior Air Force leaders. The board discusses potential studies of interest, develops and frames study tasks, ensures proper project planning, suggests potential committee members and reviewers for reports produced by fully independent ad hoc study committees, and convenes meetings to examine strategic issues. The board members listed on page v were not asked to endorse the committee’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they review the final draft of this report before its release. Board members with appropriate expertise may be nominated to serve as formal members of study committees or to review reports.
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Lawrence J. Delaney, Titan Corporation (ret.), Reston, Virginia,
Alan H. Epstein, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
Paul Kaminski, Technovation, Inc., Fairfax Station, Virginia,
C. Kumar Patel, University of California, Los Angeles,
Joseph B. Reagan, Lockheed Martin Missiles & Space Company (ret.), Saratoga, California,
Alton D. Romig, Jr., Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, and
David A. Whelan, Boeing Phantom Works, Seal Beach, California.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions
or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Frosch, Harvard University. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Figures and Table
FIGURES
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2-1 |
The Space and C4ISR Concept of Operations’ operational view, |
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3-1 |
Examples of existing weapon systems, |
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3-2 |
Missile technology demonstrations and flight experiments, |
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C-1 |
Conceptual simulation results showing speed and observability combinations that yield constant effectiveness, |
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|
C-2 |
Conceptual simulation results showing speed and observabilitycombinations that yield constant survivability, |
TABLE
|
4-1 |
Summary of Inputs of Relevant Aircraft Studies, |
Acronyms and Abbreviations
AAA anti-aircraft artillery
AAM air-to-air missiles
ADVENT Adaptive Versatile Engine Technology
AFRL Air Force Research Laboratory
AI airborne interceptor
AQL Special Programs Office of the Secretary of the Air Force
ATC Automatic Target Correlation
ATR Automatic Target Recognition
BLOS beyond line of sight
C4ISR command, control, communications, and computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
CCM counter countermeasures
CDD concept development and demonstration
CM countermeasures
CONOPS concept of operations
CRRA Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment
DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
dBsm decibels per square meter
DE directed energy
DOD Department of Defense
E effectiveness, a function
EADSIM Extended Air Defense Simulation
EO electro-optical (includes ultraviolet, visible, and infrared)
ESM electronic support measures
EW electronic warfare
GBU-28 Guided Bomb Unit-28
GIG Global Information Grid
GPA Global Persistent Attack
GPS Global Positioning System
GS Global Strike
IADS integrated air defense system
IHPTET Integrated High Performance Turbine Engine Technologies
IOC initial operational capability
IR infrared
IRST infrared surveillance and tracking
ISR intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
JASSM joint air-to-surface standoff missile
LO low observable
LOS line of sight
LPI low probability of intercept
LRSS long-range strike system
LWIR long-wave infrared
M Mach number
M&S modeling and simulation
MANPADS Man-Portable Air Defense System
MCO major combat operation
MWIR medium-wave infrared
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NMS National Military Strategy
NRC National Research Council
O&S operations and support
ONR Office of Naval Research
Ops Sit operational situation
P3I pre-planned product improvement
PDE pulse detonation engine
PGA Persistent Global Attack
Pr probability
QDR Quadrennial Defense Review
R&D research and development
RADGUNS Radar Directed Gun Simulation
RAM radar-absorbing material
RAS radar-absorbing structure
RATTLRS Revolutionary Approach to Time Critical Long Range Strike program
RCS radar cross section
RF radio frequency
S survivability, a function
S&T science and technology
SA situation awareness
SAM surface-to-air missile
SDD system definition and design
SRAAM short-range air-to-air missile
SWIR short-wave infrared
TBCC turbine-based combined cycle
TRL technology readiness level
USAF U.S. Air Force
VAATE Versatile Affordable Advanced Technology Engines
WMD weapon of mass destruction
