FUTURE AIR FORCE NEEDS FOR SURVIVABILITY

Committee on Future Air Force Needs for Survivability

Air Force Studies Board

Divivion on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability FUTURE AIR FORCE NEEDS FOR SURVIVABILITY Committee on Future Air Force Needs for Survivability Air Force Studies Board Divivion on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This is a report of work supported by Grant No. FA9550-05-1-0489. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number-10 0-309-10219-7 International Standard Book Number-13 978-0-309-10219-3 Limited copies of this report are available from: Air Force Studies Board National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3118 Additional copies are available from: The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Lockbox 285 Washington, DC 20055 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability COMMITTEE ON FUTURE AIR FORCE NEEDS FOR SURVIVABILITY LESLIE KENNE KENNE, Chair, LK Associates, Fairfax, Virginia SETH BONDER BONDER, The Bonder Group, Ann Arbor, Michigan JOHN J. CAMPBELL, General Electric Aviation, Cincinnati, Ohio BENNETT M. CROSWELL, Pratt & Whitney, East Hartford, Connecticut ALEC GALLIMORE, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor CHARLES L. GUTHRIE, Northrop Grumman Integrated Systems, El Segundo, California NEIL G. KACENA, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company, Palmdale, California GREGORY S. MARTIN, GS Martin Consulting, Woodland Park, Colorado JESSE T. McMAHAN, Modern Technology Solutions, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia ROBERT A. MOORE, DST, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia DAVID M. VAN WIE, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, Maryland ALAN R. WIECHMAN, The Boeing Company, St. Louis, Missouri MICHAEL I. YARYMOVYCH, Sarasota Space Associates, Osprey, Florida Staff MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Director, CARTER FORD, Research Associate WILLIAM CAMPBELL, Senior Program Associate GREGORY EYRING, Consultant LaNITA R. JONES, Senior Program Assistant

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability AIR FORCE STUDIES BOARD LAWRENCE J. DELANEY, Chair, Titan Corporation (ret.), Reston, Virginia R. NOEL LONGUEMARE, Vice Chair, Consultant, Ellicott City, Maryland FRANK J. CAPPUCCIO, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Fort Worth, Texas THOMAS DARCY, EADS North America Defense Company, Arlington, Virginia STEVEN D. DORFMAN, Hughes Electronics (ret.), Los Angeles, California PAMELA A. DREW, Boeing Integrated Defense Systems, Seattle, Washington KENNETH E. EICKMANN, Consultant, Austin, Texas JOHN V. FARR, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey RAND H. FISHER, Titan Corporation, Reston, Virginia JACQUELINE GISH, Northrop Grumman, Redondo Beach, California KENNETH C. HALL, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina WESLEY L. HARRIS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge LESLIE KENNE, LK Associates, Fairfax, Virginia DONALD J. KUTYNA, North American Aerospace Defense Command (ret.), Colorado Springs, Colorado TAYLOR W. LAWRENCE, Raytheon Company, Waltham, Massachusetts GREGORY S. MARTIN, GS Martin Consulting, Woodland Park, Colorado DEBASIS MITRA, Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, New Jersey CHANDRA N. KUMAR PATEL, University of California, Los Angeles RICHARD R. PAUL, The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington ROBERT F. RAGGIO, Dayton Aerospace, Inc., Dayton, Ohio GENE W. RAY, GMT Ventures, La Jolla, California ELI RESHOTKO, Professor Emeritus, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio LOURDES SALAMANCA-RIBA, University of Maryland, College Park MARVIN R. SAMBUR, Headquarters, U.S. Air Force (ret.), Potomac, Maryland LYLE H. SCHWARTZ, Air Force Office of Scientific Research (ret.), Chevy Chase, Maryland EUGENE L. TATTINI, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability Staff MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Director JAMES C. GARCIA, Senior Program Officer DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, Program Officer CARTER FORD, Research Associate DEANNA SPARGER, Program Administrative Coordinator CHRIS JONES, Financial Associate WILLIAM CAMPBELL, Senior Program Associate LaSHAWN SIDBURY, Program Associate LaNITA R. JONES, Senior Program Assistant

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability Preface The chair wishes to thank the members of this committee for generously taking time from their demanding schedules and working hard to complete this report in the short time allotted. As noted in Chapter 1 in the section “Scope and Committee Approach,” in the time available the committee could not address all aspects of the statement of task as fully as it would have liked, but it put its emphasis where it felt that the issues were most important. The entire committee thanks the many organizations and guest speakers that provided excellent briefings and background information, and wants to single out for special appreciation the support provided by the Secretary of the Air Force’s Special Programs Office (AQL). The security requirements associated with this effort presented many challenges to the staff and committee members in completing this work, which could not have been accomplished without AQL’s assistance and that of the security personnel of the National Academies. Finally, the committee thanks the National Research Council staff members who supported the study. Primary among them were Michael Clarke, LaNita Jones, William Campbell, Gregory Eyring, and Carter Ford. Leslie Kenne, Chair Committee on Future Air Force Needs for Survivability

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability ROLE OF THE BOARD The Air Force Studies Board (AFSB) was established in 1996 by the National Academies at the request of the United States Air Force. The AFSB brings to bear broad military, industrial, and academic scientific, engineering, and management expertise on Air Force technical challenges and other issues of importance to senior Air Force leaders. The board discusses potential studies of interest, develops and frames study tasks, ensures proper project planning, suggests potential committee members and reviewers for reports produced by fully independent ad hoc study committees, and convenes meetings to examine strategic issues. The board members listed on page v were not asked to endorse the committee’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they review the final draft of this report before its release. Board members with appropriate expertise may be nominated to serve as formal members of study committees or to review reports.

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Lawrence J. Delaney, Titan Corporation (ret.), Reston, Virginia, Alan H. Epstein, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Paul Kaminski, Technovation, Inc., Fairfax Station, Virginia, C. Kumar Patel, University of California, Los Angeles, Joseph B. Reagan, Lockheed Martin Missiles & Space Company (ret.), Saratoga, California, Alton D. Romig, Jr., Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, and David A. Whelan, Boeing Phantom Works, Seal Beach, California. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Frosch, Harvard University. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW   9      Introduction,   9      Historical Context,   10      Statement of Task,   15      Scope and Committee Approach,   16      Structure of This Report,   18 2   OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT   19      Threats and Needed Capabilities,   19      Aspects of Air Vehicle Survivability,   21      Survivability Against Integrated Air Defense Systems,   22      U.S. Air Force Concepts of Operations,   26 3   TECHNOLOGICAL SETTING   32      Aircraft Systems,   32      Elements of Signature,   50      Technology Feasibility Analysis,   53      Summary of Signature Technology Readiness,   54      Ongoing Research and Development Programs,   55      Research and Development Needs and Opportunities,   55

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability 4   ASSESSING THE OPERATIONAL UTILITY OF SPEED AND OBSERVABILITY TRADE-OFFS   58      Committee Analysis of Previous Studies,   59      Committee Observations and Conclusions,   61 5   FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   65     APPENDIXES          A  Biographical Sketches of Committee Members   73      B  Committee Meetings   82      C  A Framework for Comprehensive Analysis   85      D  Glossary   96

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability Figures and Table FIGURES 2-1   The Space and C4ISR Concept of Operations’ operational view,   28 3-1   Examples of existing weapon systems,   41 3-2   Missile technology demonstrations and flight experiments,   43 C-1   Conceptual simulation results showing speed and observability combinations that yield constant effectiveness,   94 C-2   Conceptual simulation results showing speed and observabilitycombinations that yield constant survivability,   94 TABLE 4-1   Summary of Inputs of Relevant Aircraft Studies,   60

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability Acronyms and Abbreviations AAA anti-aircraft artillery AAM air-to-air missiles ADVENT Adaptive Versatile Engine Technology AFRL Air Force Research Laboratory AI airborne interceptor AQL Special Programs Office of the Secretary of the Air Force ATC Automatic Target Correlation ATR Automatic Target Recognition BLOS beyond line of sight C4ISR command, control, communications, and computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance CCM counter countermeasures CDD concept development and demonstration CM countermeasures CONOPS concept of operations CRRA Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency dBsm decibels per square meter DE directed energy DOD Department of Defense

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability E effectiveness, a function EADSIM Extended Air Defense Simulation EO electro-optical (includes ultraviolet, visible, and infrared) ESM electronic support measures EW electronic warfare GBU-28 Guided Bomb Unit-28 GIG Global Information Grid GPA Global Persistent Attack GPS Global Positioning System GS Global Strike IADS integrated air defense system IHPTET Integrated High Performance Turbine Engine Technologies IOC initial operational capability IR infrared IRST infrared surveillance and tracking ISR intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance JASSM joint air-to-surface standoff missile LO low observable LOS line of sight LPI low probability of intercept LRSS long-range strike system LWIR long-wave infrared M Mach number M&S modeling and simulation MANPADS Man-Portable Air Defense System MCO major combat operation MWIR medium-wave infrared NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NMS National Military Strategy NRC National Research Council O&S operations and support ONR Office of Naval Research

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Future Air Force Needs for Survivability Ops Sit operational situation P3I pre-planned product improvement PDE pulse detonation engine PGA Persistent Global Attack Pr probability QDR Quadrennial Defense Review R&D research and development RADGUNS Radar Directed Gun Simulation RAM radar-absorbing material RAS radar-absorbing structure RATTLRS Revolutionary Approach to Time Critical Long Range Strike program RCS radar cross section RF radio frequency S survivability, a function S&T science and technology SA situation awareness SAM surface-to-air missile SDD system definition and design SRAAM short-range air-to-air missile SWIR short-wave infrared TBCC turbine-based combined cycle TRL technology readiness level USAF U.S. Air Force VAATE Versatile Affordable Advanced Technology Engines WMD weapon of mass destruction