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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems Index Absorbed dose from combustion, 448 Accelerator breeders, 213 Acceptable levels of risk, 424 Accidents catastrophes. See Catastrophes coal mining, 50–51, 188–189, 428–432 fatal, 188–189, 428–429 large-scale, 53 with liquid metal fast breeder reactors, 289–292 LOCA. See Loss-of-coolant accident with nuclear reactors, 216–217, 281–289 and uranium mining, 216 Acid precipitation, 467–468 Actinide transport studies, 310 Ad Hoc Population Dose Assessment Group, 460–461 Add-on costs for nuclear power, 271–272 Advanced converters, 24–25, 27, 29–30, 215, 244 versus breeders, 256–258 CANDU, 215 designs, 245–246 enriched uranium for, 237–238 evaluation of, 246–247 extending resources, 215 light water breeder reactors. See Light water reactor recommendations for, 258–260 safety of, 218 Advanced reactors, fuel cycles of, 241 Africa natural gas exports, 522 oil reserves in, 515–518 trade surplus, 523 uranium in, 518–519, 522 Agricultural residues, See Biomass Agriculture in developing countries, 525 energy efficiency of, 376 energy used for, 375–376 risks to, 463–467 Air conditioning and insulation, 91 mandatory standards for, 90 solar space cooling, 357–358 2010, projection for, 92 Air pollution, 51–53 and coal use, 20, 158, 162–168, 455 and geopressured reservoirs, 406 and GNP, 123 health effects, research on, 455–459 and hot water reservoirs, 403 public health risk, 434–436 solar thermal conversion plants, 366–367 Air quality, 425 projections on, 454–455 research and standards, 489–490 Air travel demand projections for, 87–90 efficiency, increases in, 86 projections for, 547 Alabama, 157 ALARA and radiation exposure, 440 for radioactive waste disposal, 309 Alaska oil discovery, 507 pipeline, 480 volcanoes, 409 Algae and photochemical conversion, 379 ponds, 378 Algeria, oil production, 504 Allocation systems, 144 Alpha-active wastes, 301, 623 for reprocessed nuclear fuel, 320 American Physical Society, 36, 41, 54

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems and radioactive wastes, 316 and underground nuclear waste repositories, 310–311 and WASH-1400, 285 American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE), 91 Anaerobic fermentation, 374 Antinuclear movement, 260–262 Animal life and plant monocultures, 377 Appliances demand projections for, 90–93 labeled for energy consumption, 121 2010, projections for, 92–93 Aqueous raffinates, 300 Arab-Israeli war of 1973, 507 As low as reasonably achievable. See ALARA Ashland Oil Co., 180 Atascadero, Skytherm House in, 360 Athabascan tar sands, 517 Atmospheric fluidized-bed combustion, 160 Atomic bomb and ionizing radiation, 432–434 Atomic Energy Commission The Brookhaven Report, 261 and Clinch River breeder reactor program, 255–256 and radioactive waste, 314–315 and WASH-1400, 285 Attic insulation. See Insulation Australia, uranium reserves in, 518–519 Automobiles demand projections for, 87–90 electric vehicles, 85–86 international comparisons, 109 miles per gallon. See Miles per gallon pollutants, 52 projections for, 546–547 replacement of, 11 savings in energy for, 85 substituting materials for, 96 Baby boom and GNP, 535 Background radiation, 313–314 Balance of payments, 508 Barges for transporting coal, 196 Barstow pilot plant, California, 366 Base-case values, 110 Batteries development of, 614–615 for electric vehicles, 86 Bechtel Corporation, 264–265 Beryllium, 388 Best available control technology, 426 Bi-Gas process, 175 Binary cycle plant, 413 Biocides, 372 Biomass, 43, 374–375 and algae ponds, 378 committee’s recommendations, 71 destructiveness of, 55 ecosystem risks of, 478 growth of, 376–378 high-solar energy scenario, 350–351 municipal wastes, 374 Biophotolysis, 379 Black lung disease, 147, 188–189, 431 Blanket cycles for fast breeders, 253 Blanket tax, 12–14 Bloomster, C.H., 413 Bodvarsson, G., 407, 414 Bombs on nuclear facility, 293 BORAX, 293 Boron, 388 Boulding, Kenneth E., 613–618 Brayton engineers, 87 Brazil, oil resources in, 518 Break-even thermal breeder, 245 Breeder reactors, 24–25, 27, 29–30, 32–34, 38–39, 214–215, 244 abandonmcnt of, 65, 525 versus advanced converters, 256–258 cores for, 253 flexibility of, 251–253 fusion reactor as, 386–387 gas-cooled fast breeder reactor. See Gas-cooled fast breeder reactor illegal diversion during reprocessing, 218 industrial position on, 213 light water reactor. See Light water reactor liquid-metal fast breeder reactor. See Liquid-metal fast breeder reactor national energy policies, 525 postponement of, 525 recommendations for, 70, 258–260 recycling load through, 214 safety of, 18–19, 218 uranium price and competitiveness of, 522 Breeder Reactor Resource Group, 651 Brine deposits, 46, 142, 398–399, 405 Bronchial asthma, 426 Bronchitis, 436 Brookhaven Report, The, 261 Brooks, Harvey, 618–621, 623–633, 637–641 Brown’s Ferry, 289 Brush, Harvey, 265 Btu quads. See Quadrillion Btu tax, 606 Building codes, 91 Buildings demand projections for, 90–93, 544–546

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems heating. See Heating systems housing. See Housing retrofitting. See Retrofitting thermal performance standards for, 79 2010, projections for, 92–93 Buildings Resource Group, 650 Bunkers for storing radioactive waste, 314 Bureau of Mines and coal reserves, 155 Buses, flexibility of, 90 Business as usual scenario, 132–133, 135 geothermal energy production, 417 By-product steam marketing, 98 California Imperial Valley of, 403 solar heating systems, tax credit for, 347 state government office building in Sacramento, 360 Campbell, G.E., 404 Canada, 135, 504, 517 Athabascan tar sands in, 517 GNP and energy use, 108 natural gas reserves, 142, 515 oil consumption, 1973–1977, 509 oil exploration in, 518 oil exports, 507 reactors, 214 uranium in, 518–519, 522 Cancer and air pollution, 455–459 coal energy cycle, 52–53 and coal miners, 431–432 and costs for avoiding risk, 443 deaths from emissions, 52–53 and fission, 439 and ionizing radiations, 432–434 and oil, 423 and smoking, 436 and uranium mining, 216 CANDU, 28–29, 214–215, 245–247 costs, 248 flexibility of, 250–253 once-through cycle costs, 248–249 Cannon, Robert H., Jr., 629, 642 Capital constant availability of, 113–114 and labor inputs, 122 light water reactors, 247–248 for nuclear power plants, 264–265 for technological advances, 111–112 Capital stock, 11, 68 Car pools, 90 Carbon dioxide, 57–58 from coal, 147 and combustion, 453–454 from fossil fuels, 20, 24 and global climate, 469–473 ocean thermal conversion, 371–372 risks, 487 Carbon monoxide, 51 Carbon-steel tanks for radioactive wastes, 306 Cartels OPEC. See Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) uranium prices, 520 Carter, Jimmy, 306, 348–349 Cash surpluses, countries with, 67 Catalytic gasification, 176 Catalytic liquefaction processes, 179 Catastrophes, 459–463 from nuclear power, 460–463 Cattle feedlots, 375 Caulking, 91 Census Bureau, 534–535 Chattanooga shales, 520 Chemical agents, public health risk from, 434–436 Chemical feedstocks, coal for, 184–185 Chicken factories, 375 China, 135 coal resources, 513 oil resources in, 522 Civex cycle, 218, 259, 322–324, 326 Cladding hulls, 307–308 Clean Air Act, 52, 162, 424 and combustion, 454 nitrogen oxides, 166–167 practicality of, 425–426 sulfur emission standards, 164 Clean Water Act, 162, 424 Climate, 57–58 and demand, 76 risks to, 467–475 and solar thermal conversion plants, 367 Climatological Effects Resource Group, 65, 650 Clinch River breeder reactor (CRBR) costs of, 273–275 funding for, 255–256 government opposition to, 241 necessity for, 622–623 recommendations for, 258–259 safety of, 289–292 CLOP members of, 653 minimum energy-use scenario, 557–559 total primary energy use, 559 Coal, 146–205, 512–513 accidents, 50–51, 188–189, 428–432 air pollution regulations, 20, 158, 162–168, 455 anthracite, 150, 155 Appalachian basin, 153–155, 196 area mining, 191 atmospheric fluidized-bed combustion, 160 balanced with nuclear power, 70

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems Bi-Gas process, 175 bituminous, 150, 155 black lung disease, 147, 188–189 cancer caused by use of, 52–53 and carbon dioxide emissions, 147 catalytic liquefaction processes, 179 as chemical feedstock, 184–185 coalification, 149–150 cogeneration, 173 coke production, 185 combined-cycle generation, 169–170 combustion risks, 450 concentrated markets, 194–195 conclusions, 203–205 consumption of, 158–160, 186 contour mining, 191 conversion, 479 costs, 165–166 decline in use of, 505 in developing countries, 526 disabling injuries in mining, 188–189 and diseases, 431 distribution of resources, 153–155, 157–158 eastern regions, 153, 186 ecosystem risks of, 479 electricity generation from, 161, 163–164 energy from, 158 Energy Information Administration projections, 566 energy storage, 172–173 environmental problems, 148, 507 export of, 64, 523 fatalities in mining, 188–189, 428 federal leasing policy, 192–193 flue-gas desulfurization, 164–166 fluidized-bed combustion, 166–167, 169, 170 fuel cells, 171–172 future use of, 149 gas from, 160 gasification, 173–178 gasification-combined-cycle plants, 170–171 gross income of industry, 195 health problems, 147, 188–189 high-Btu gas production, 175 horizontal integration by gas and oil companies, 194 HYGAS process, 175 indirect liquefaction, 178–182 industrial accidents and disease, 50–51 industrial coal demand, 160 for industrial process heat, 182–183 industry structure, 193–195 inorganic substances, 150 interlocking boards, 194 investors in, 193–194 labor force, 186–190 and labor-management relations, 187–188 lignite, 150, 155 limestone scrubbing, 165–166 linked vertical well method, 176 liquefaction, 562 liquid fuels from, 178–182 long-term contracts, 193 longwall mining, 190 low-Btu gas from, 174 Lurgi process, 175 magnetohydrodynamic generation, 172 market for, 147 medium-Btu gas from, 174 metallurgical, 148 mining accidents, 430–432 mining technology, 190–192 nitrogen dioxide, 163 nitrogen oxides, 166–167 and nuclear power, 163–164, 213, 263 objectives for use of, 148 oil and gas companies mining, 194 open-pit mining, 191 from organic remains, 150 particulates, 162–163, 167 Pittsburgh bed, 153 pollution control costs, 161 power plant construction by 1995, 186 price of, 193, 195 producing states, 155, 157 production, 185–186 productivity decline, 188 profitability, 195 projection for price of, 539 pyrolysis, 178–179 quality of, 149–153 rank of, 150–151 recoverable reserves, 155 regenerable double-alkali process, 166 research and development, 177, 182 reserves, 513–515 reserve base tonnage, 155 respirable dust standards, 188–189 risk factors, 60 room-and-pillar mining, 190 scrubbing requirements, 186 short-term production, 158 slurry pipelines, 196 solvent-extraction processes, 178–179 stack gas scrubbers, cost of, 124 steeply dipping beds, 176 subbituminous, 150, 155 substitution for electricity, 570 sulfur dioxide emissions, 161–166 sulfur products, 150–153

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems surface-mining, 158, 191–192 as swing fuel, 582–583 synthetic fuel derived from, 139–140, 173–178 technologies, 148, 160–161, 168–173 transportation of, 195–197 underground gasification, 176 underground mining, 190 uranium exports, effect on coal, 523 use of, 4, 15–16, 19–22 utilities use of, 158, 160, 193–194 vertical integration by utilities, 193–194 and water supply, 147, 197–203, 473 Wellman-Lord process, 166 western regions, 153, 157, 186 world production of, 501 Wyodak bed, 155 Coal Conversion Resource Group, 651 Coal Mine Health and Safety Act of 1969, 188–189 Coal mine reclamation, 121 Cogeneration of electricity, 97–99, 173 tax credits for, 122 Coke production for coal, 185 Colorado, 17, 21, 153–155 Combined-cycle generation, 169–170 Combustion ecosystem, risks to, 479 health risks from, 448 Commercial feasibility for fusion, 393–394 Committee on Processing and Utilization of Fossil Fuels, 180 Commonwcalth Edison, 265, 267, 270 Communist countries consumption and production, 1960–1973, 501–505 oil reserves in, 28, 30, 515–518, 522 production, 1973–1977, 509 uranium reserves in, 519 Community-based utility systems, 91 CONAES. See also Demand and Conservation Panel advanced converters, 258 coal consumption, estimates, 186 and Energy Information Administration projections, 566 Modeling Resource Group, 5, 11–12, 14, 78 and photovoltaics, 40 and radioactive waste, 35 Risk and Impact Panel, 53, 55 Solar Resource Group, 44–45 Supply and Delivery Panel, 7, 9, 14, 16, 18 Synthesis Panel, 653 Uranium Resource Group, 25 Conflicts between conservation and national goals, 122–123 Congenital heart disease, 444 Congress and Clinch River breeder reactor program, 255–256 Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, 155 Conservation, 4, 59 effect of, 523–524 of fluid fuels, 17 national energy policies, 64 and risks, 486 Conservation tax on energy, 113, 605–606 political acceptability of, 115 Consultants, 654 Consumer durables, 68 Consumption higher oil prices affecting, 508 historical changes in, 106–107 in 1978, 128 U.S., 2 worldwide, 62 Consumption, Location, and Occupation Patterns Resource Group. See CLOP Contracts and coal production, 193 Contributors, 654 Converters, 210 advanced nuclear converters. See Advanced converters Coprocessing, 218 Cores for fast breeders, 253 Cost-benefit analysis, 484 Costs and best available control technology, 426 of drilling, 131 energy farming, 377 geopressured reservoirs, 413–414 geothermal energy resources, 410–416 hot dry rock, extracting heat from, 414–415 hot water reservoirs, 412–413 of light water reactors, 247–250 of liquid-metal fast breeder reactor, 273–275 liquefied fuels from coal, 180–181 methane production, 374 natural steam, 410–412 normal-gradient systems, extracting heat from, 415 of nuclear fusion, 386, 394 of nuclear power, 262–278 synthetic gas production, 176–177 transporting oil, 504 CRBR. See Clinch River breeder reactor Credit to developing countries, 67 Crops. See Agriculture Crude oil. See Oil Current Decision-Making Resource Group, 653

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems Dams and catastrophes, 54, 459–460 Death and air pollution, 456–459 cancer. See Cancer and electricity, 423, 428–429 Decay and reprocessing, 321 Decommissioning costs for nuclear power, 272 Deep mining, ecosystem risks of, 479 Demand determinants of, 76–78 moderating, 5–6 price elasticity of, 77–78 reduction of, 5–6 Demand and Conservation Panel, 5–6, 14, 16, 134, 559 members of, 649–650 results, 79–99 supply and demand scenarios, 566–609 Demography and demand, 76–77 Denatured thorium cycle, 218 Denaturing nuclear fuel, 321–322, 326 Denmark, 369 Department of Commerce, 548–549 Department of Energy coal production, 148 coal use, 183, 184 enrichment of uranium, 235 H-Coal process, 180 hot water reservoirs, development of, 398–399 and liquid-metal fast breeder reactor accidents, 291 and nuclear waste disposal standards, 316 ocean thermal coversion, 377 solar energy, environmental assessment of, 366 solar space heating systems, cost of, 355–356 and solar thermal conversion, 346, 365 SRC-II process plant, 179 uranium availability figures from, 213 DESOM demand projections, 602–603 Deuterium, 46, 386–388 Developing countries, 66–67 consumption and production. 1969–1973, 504–505 demand growth in, 521 oil price rise of 1973–1974, 526–527 production in, 1973–1977, 526 trade deficits in, 526 and world financial system, 525–527 Development wells, 131 Diabetes, 444 Diesel engines, 86–87 Dilution of radioactive wastes, 300–305 Disadvantaged consumers, goal conflicts with, 122 Diseases cancer. See Cancer from coal dust, 431 District heat, 98 Diversity in energy system, 347 Dodecane for reprocessing, 319 Dollar, value of, 3 Domestic oil and gas production, 4, 17–20 Dominion Aluminum, Ltd., of Canada, 370 Dose-effect relationships, 50 Dosimetry, 458 Drilling, cost of, 131 income tax treatment on, 78 Drinking water, pollutants in, 425 Dust clouds from solar thermal conversion plants, 367 Earthquakes and geothermal power, 477 and radioactive waste, 312 East Texas field, 130 EBR-I, 252 EBR-II, 252, 256 Econometric studies by Modeling Resource Group, 110–114 Economics of cogeneration, 98 Economics Resource Group, 649 Ecosystem effects, 55–56, 475–481 Ecosystem Impacts Resource Group on hydroelectric power, 476 members of, 650 Edison Electric Institute, 573 Efficient energy, 5, 11, 68–69 Elasticity for building projections, 544 of demand, 77–78 and GNP growth, 601–602 for industry, 548 Electric power plants geothermal, 397–398 health risks of, 427–428 Electric Power Research Institute, 36, 170, 180, 358 Energy Modeling Forum, 102 and solar thermal conversion, 365 Electric vehicles, 85–86 Electricity and coal-fired plants, 158–161 cogeneration of, 97–99, 173 cost of, 16–17 and demand, 30, 32, 557, 571–583 in developing countries, 526 development, 1960–1973, 504 fatal accidents, 428–429

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems generated from solar energy, 364–372 global perspectives, 62–63 growth, 16 hydroelectric power. See Hydroelectric power long-range perspectives, 521–522 nuclear power. See Nuclear power ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), 371–372 photovoltaic conversion, 368–369 price changes, effect of, 509 slowdown in consumption of, 509 and solar energy, 10–11, 40–43, 349–350 solar heating and cooling systems, backup for, 358 Supply and Delivery Panel on, 211–213 swing fuel, coal as, 582–583 tax on, 14 wind energy conversion, 369–370 world consumption of, 521–522 Electricity Conversion Resource Group, 651 Electrochemical systems for photochemical conversion, 379 Electrolysis, 373 Electrolytic conversion, 380 Electrostatic precipitators, 167–168 Embargo and Arab-Israeli War of 1973, 507 Emergency core-cooling system, 283 Emissions, 51–53 areas of no significant deterioration, 426 controls and price of energy, 121 from uranium tailings, 216 Emissions and Pathways Resource Group, 650 Emphysema, 426, 436 Endangered species, 367 Endangered Species Act, 162 Energy, Department of. See Department of Energy Energy farms, 351, 373, 376–378 Energy industry, 616 Energy Information Administration (EIA), 566 Energy input fractions, 553, 556 Energy Modeling Forum, 102 Energy prices, projection for, 539–540 Energy Research and Development Administration, 355–356 Energy Resource Group, 651 Energy stamps, 122 Energy storage technology, 172–173 Energy supplies, 2–4 for near term, 14–17 1975–2010, 7 and projection comparisons, 564–609 Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of 1974, 424 Energy-to-output ratios, 76 Engineering research, 116 Engineering submodels for buildings, 545 Engineers, coal mining and demand for, 187 England coal mining in, 515 and International Fusion Research Council, 390 lung cancer in, 432 oil consumption, 1973–1977, 509 wave-energy converter research, 371 Enrichment of uranium, 235–238 Enrico Fermi-I, 252 Environment biomass production, 377 and coal use, 148 and geopressured reservoirs, 406 and GNP, 123–124 hot dry rock, 407–408 and hot water reservoirs, 403 low-grade uranium deposits, mining of, 520 molten magma, 409 natural steam reservoirs, 404 normal-gradient geothermal heat, 408 nuclear fusion and, 385–386, 394–395 ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), 371–372 and price of energy, 121 relaxation of standards, 110 solar energy. See Solar energy and underground coal gasification, 176 Environmental groups, 260–262 Environmental Protection Act, 454 Environmental Protection Agency, 162 and air quality, 425 coal production, 186 and combustion, 448 creation of, 422 light water reactor exposure, 441 particulate emissions from coal, 167 and risk regulation, 424 sulfur dioxide emissions from coal, 151 and uranium fuel cycle, 422 and WASH-1400, 285 water pollution from chicken factories, 375 Epidemiological methods, 432, 456 Equipment, energy life cycle costs, 379 Erosion and radioactive waste, 312 from solar thermal conversion plants, 367

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems Europe taxing policies in, 77 uranium enrichment in, 235 European Congress on the Influence of Air Pollution on Plants and Animals, 466 Excise taxes, 509 Exploratory wells, 131 Exxon Corporation, 539 Exxon Donor Solvent (EDS) process, 179–180 Fabric filter baghouses, 167–168 Fast breeders. See Breeder reactors Fast Flux Test Facility, 256 Fatalities. See Death Federal leasing coal production and, 192–193 geothermal energy and, 398, 416 Federal Mines Safety and Health Act of 1977, 424 Federal Power Act, 99 Federal Power Commission, 193–194 Federal Register, 425 Feedstocks, 184–185 Fertile isotopes, 239 Fertilizers, wastes to replace, 376 FIFA, 251 Financing developing countries and, 67 world banking, 527 Finding rate, 131 Fissile isotopes, 239 Fission breeders, 210 risks of, 438–443 of uranium, 214 Fissions per initial fissile atom (FIFA), 251 Flue-gas desulfurization, 164–166 Fluid fuels from solar energy, 42–43 supply of, 69–70 Fluidized-bed combustion, 166–167, 169–170 Fly-ash emissions, 458 Foil insulation on floor, 91 Food production, 375–377 in competition with biomass production, 376–378 Ford Foundation, 326–327 Ford/Mitre Report, 463 Foreign royalties, income taxes on, 78 Forest products industry, 351 Fort Saint Vrain reactor, 246, 292 Forward costs for uranium, 229 Fossil fuels. See also Coal; Natural gas; Oil risks from, 486–487 France and International Fusion Research Council, 390 oil consumption, 1973–1977, 509 uranium reserves in, 519 Freight transportation projections for, 547 railroads. See Railroads trucking. See Trucking Fuel cells, 171–172 Fuel cycle costs, 239, 267–270 nuclear fuels. See Nuclear fuels Fuels. See Coal; Fossil fuels; Natural gas; Nuclear fuels; Oil Fusion. See Nuclear fusion Fusion Assessment Resource Group, 651 Fusion-fission devices, 213 Gas. See Natural Gas Gas-centrifuge method of uranium enrichment, 227–239 Gas-cooled fast breeder reactor (GCFBR), 38, 252–253 introduction of, 255 Gas Distribution Resource Group, 652 Gaseous fuels, 583, 586 Gasification-combined-cycle plants, 170–171 Gasohol motor fuel, 377 Gasoline European taxes on, 77, 109 incentives for cconomy, 85 GCFBR. See Gas-cooled fast breeder reactor GDP. See GNP Geography and demand, 76–77 and international energy use statistics, 110 Geopressured reservoirs, 399, 405–406, 413–414 Geothermal energy, 46, 72, 397–417 conclusions on, 419 and ecosystem risks, 476–477 and environment, 402–409 estimated heat contents, 400 and federal leasing policy, 416 geopressured reservoirs, 399, 405–406, 413–414 hot dry rock, 399–400, 406–408, 414–415 hot water reservoirs, 398–399, 402–403, 412–413 institutional problems, 416–417 in integrating model, 553 molten magma, 400, 409, 415 natural steam, 399, 403–404, 410–412

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems normal geothermal gradient, 399–400, 408, 415 potential production scenarios, 417 producibility, 400 production costs of, 410–416 and Tax policy, 416 technical considerations and, 402–409 types of resources, 398–400 wells drilled, 400 Geothermal Resource Group, 652 German pebble-bed reactor, 246–247 Germany cladding hulls, 307–308 oil consumption, 1973–1977, 509 Geysers, 397 Geysers power plant, 399, 403–404, 410–412 Global climate risks, 470–473 GNP, 5 appendix on, 123–124 conclusions concerning, 116–120 and Demand and Conservation Panel results, 80 as determinant of energy demand, 76 of developing countries, 66, 526 and energy consumption, 501 energy ratio, 62, 69 feedback from energy use to, 601–602 growth of, 6, 11, 12 historical trends, 104–108 international comparisons, 107–110 and investment, 600 Modeling Resource Group growth projections, 599–600 and moderating energy consumption, 102–110 and national output, 104 and oil consumption, 509 and price elasticities, 78, 111–112 projections, 535–539 reduction of energy affecting, 11–12, 14 slowdown in growth of, 65, 525 and use of energy, 103 Gornowski, Edward J., 620–622, 630, 633–635, 642 Government incentives. See Incentives Government-supported research, 115–116 Grain to produce fuels, 377 Grants mineral belt, 231–233 Great Britain. See England Greenwood, Ted, 328 Greider, B., 412–413 Gross National Product. See GNP Groundwater and radioactive waste disposal, 312 Growth rates, 501 Gulf Coast, brines of, 46, 142 Gulf’s Solvent Refined Coal 11 (SRC-II), 179 GWe-year of reactor operation, 280–281 Half-life of uranium ore tailings, 298–300 Hanford reservation leaks at, 306 wastes from, 317 Harris Polls on nuclear energy, 261 Hawaii, Mini-OTEC plant in, 371 Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, 409 Health and safety and air pollution, 455–459 and carbon dioxide, 472 and coal mining, 20 death. See Death and emissions, 52 estimating risks, 436–437 GNP and protection of, 124 and high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, 292 and liquid-metal fast breeder reactors, 289–292 and nuclear power, 215–225, 279–296 public health risks, 432–459 risks, 427–465 synthetic liquid fuels from coal, 181 Health Effects Resource Group, 650 Heat processes, industrial, 348, 350 Heat pumps, 90 2010, projections for, 92–93 Heating systems, 91 thermal efficiency. See Thermal efficiency Heavy metals, 51 Heavy water reactors Canadian sales of, 519–520 flexibility of, 250–253 recommendation for, 223 Heliostats, production of, 350 Helium, 386 High-Btu gas production, 175 High-consumption scenarios, 585 High-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR), 214, 246, 254 enriched uranium for, 238 flexibility of, 250–253 once-through costs, 249 recommendations for, 223, 259 safety of, 292 Hijacking of nuclear fuel, 324–325 Hiroshima, 432–434 Holdren, John P., 271–272, 619–620, 623–627, 629–630, 635–636, 640 Homer City, Pennsylvania, 175 Hot dry rock, 399–400, 406–408, 414–415, 476–477

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems Hot water reservoirs, 398–399, 402–403, 412–413 Households, international comparisons, 109–110 Housekeeping, improvement of, 96–97 Housing low-income housing and conservation, 122 replacement of, 11 Houthakker, Hendrik S., 620, 637 HTGR. See High-temperature gas-cooled reactor Hudson, 606–608 Hudson-Jorgenson model, 606–608 HWR. See Heavy water reactors Hybrid fusion-fission fuel cycles, 388–389 Hydraulic fracturing, 407–408, 415 Hydrocarbon Research, Inc.’s JH-Coal, 179–180 Hydrocarbons, 51 Hydroelectric power accidents, 430 and catastrophes, 54, 459–460 committee’s recommendations, 71 destructiveness of, 55 developing countries, 66–67, 526 and ecosystem risks, 476 growth in, 501 in integrating model, 553 pumped hydroelectric storage, 172–173 Hydrogasification, 175–176 Hydrological analysis, 57–58 Hydrolysis of carbohydrates, 374 HYGAS process, 175 Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, 314 Waste Calcination Facility of, 309 Illinois, 153, 157 Imperial Valley of California, 403 Imports conclusions on, 137–138 consumption of, 1–3 cost of, 504 demand for, 134–135 by developing countries, 66–67 future availability of, 134–136 of natural gas, 18, 140–141 in 1978, 128 and oil price rise of 1973–1974, 505–508 from poor countries, 67 quotas, 505, 524 tariff on, 64–65, 524 Incentives for airlines, 86 for automobile fuel economy, 85 for cogeneration, 98–99 for industry, 122 oil reserves, for recovery of, 517–518 for recycling, 97 for retrofitting, 91 subsidies. See Subsidies synthetic fuel production, 140 and underpricing, 76 INCFE. See International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation Income and energy consumption, 602–608 Income elasticities of demand, 110–111 Income tax. See Taxation Indefinitely sustainable energy sources, 37–48 India, 66, 518, 526 Indian lands, leases on, 192 Indiana, 153 Indonesia, 136–137 Industrial accidents and disease, 50–51 Industrial heat processes, 348, 350 coal used for, 147, 182–183 and geothermal energy, 397 and solar energy, 358–359 Industrial plants, replacement of, 11 Industry coal, 193–195 cogeneration in, 40–44, 97–99 cost-benefit analyses of conservation, 121–122 demand projections for, 96–99 gas as preferred fuel by, 583 international comparisons, 109–110 nuclear power, position on, 213 projections for, 547–548 routine risks, 428 2010, projections for, 99 Industry Resource Group, 649 Inertial confinement, 389–392 Inflation, 3, 508–509 Insects and plant monocultures, 377 Institute of Gas Technology, 175 Institutions Resource Group, 653 Insulation, 90 increasing use of, 91 in industry, 96–97 labeling of, 121 and retrofitting for solar heating, 362 Integrated utility systems, 122 Integrating model, energy consumption, 548–557 Integration Resource Group, 651 International Atomic Energy Agency, 219, 390 and proliferation of nuclear weapons, 329 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 67, 527 International banking, 527

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems International Commission on Radiological Protection, 439, 443 International Development Association, 50, 67 International Fusion Research Council, 390 International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation (INFCE), 259 International Resource Group, 653 Interpanel Resource Group members, 653 Interstate Commerce Commission, 87 Investment and GNP growth rate, 600 for nuclear power, 275 Ionized gas, 386 Ionizing radiations, 432–434 Iran, 136, 518 Iraq, 135 Isolation for radioactive waste, 297–298 Italy and International Fusion Research Council, 390 Japan consumption and production, 1960–1973, 501–504 energy efficiency, 77 GNP and energy use, 108 and International Fusion Research Council, 390 ionizing radiation health risks in, 432–434 nuclear power, 523 oil price rise, 1973–1974, 505–508 Jobs, energy investments creating, 122 Jorgenson, 606–608 Karlsruhe, Germany, 308 Kentucky, 153, 157, 185 Kohn, Henry I., 623, 626, 628, 629, 640 Komanoff, 265, 267 Kuwait, 135, 527 Labels, energy consumption on, 121 Labor and capital investments, 122 coal workers, 186–190 Labor-productivity growth, 114 La Hague reprocessing plant, 309 Land reclamation and water supply, 473–474 Land use and hot water reservoirs, 403 photovoltaic conversion, 368–369 solar thermal conversion plants, 366–367 wind energy conversion, 369 Large Components Test Facility, 256 Laser fusion, 391 Laser separation of uranium, 236 Latin America, 135, 521 Lead and health risk, 435 Leasing. See Federal leasing Lettuce and sulfur dioxide, 466 Leukemia, 432–434 Libya, oil production, 504 Lichens and sulfur dioxide, 466 Light water reactor (LWR), 24, 26–27, 211, 215, 241, 245 accidents, 282–283 and availability of uranium, 234–235 CANDU. See CANDU catastrophes, 460–465 costs, 247–250, 273–275 development of, 254–256 enriched uranium for, 237–238 flexibility of, 250–253 fuel use by, 254 future of, 257 health risks, 440–441 high-consumption scenarios, 585 and LMFBR’S, 215 plans following, 213 radioactive waste disposal, 315–316 uranium consumption, 214 uranium ore tailings, 299 Linked vertical well method, 176 Liquid fuels from coal, 178–182 demand projections for, 583, 587 Liquid-metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR). 28, 30, 215, 254–255 add-on costs, 271 committee’s recommendation for, 70 costs of, 273–275 development of, 33–34, 38 necessity for, 622–623 recommendation for, 222–223, 258–259 safety of, 289–292 Liquefied natural gas, 18, 31, 142 accidents, 54 hazards in shipping, 459 Lischer, Ludwig F., 282, 622–623, 624–629, 634–637 Lithium, 387–388 LMFBR. See Liquid-metal fast breeder reactor LNG. See Liquefied natural gas Loans to developing countries, 67 for retrofitting, 91 LOCA. See Loss-of-coolant accident Los Angeles Basin, agriculture in, 466 Loss-of-coolant accident, 282–283, 286 with high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, 292 Louisiana, brine deposits, 405

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems Low-Btu gas production, 174 Low-growth oil-import demand scenarios. 134 Low-income housing and conservation goals, 122 Lurgi process, 175 LWR. See Light water reactor Magnetic confinement and fusion, 389–390 Magnetic mirror experiments, 390 Magnetohydrodynamic generation technology, 172 Major fuel burning installations, 183 Mandatory standards, 79 for appliances, 90 for buildings, 90 research, 116 Manganese, 457 Marcoule reprocessing plant, 309 Market guarantees oil shale, 138 synthetic fuels, 139 Mass transportation, 547 Materials science, 366–367, 395 Maximum-solar scenario, 562 Measure of Economic Welfare (MEW) and GNP, 123–124 Mechanical collectors for particulate control systems, 167 Medium-Btu gas production, 174 Meltdown, 284 estimates for damages from, 462 with liquid-metal fast breeder reactors, 292 Methane, 351, 374 Methodology for projections, 544–557 Mexico, 135–136 importing natural gas from, 142 oil exploration in, 518 Microwave beams in space solar systems, 372 Middle East natural gas exports, 522 oil reserves in, 515–518 trade surplus, 523 uranium exports, 522 Miles per gallon advertising figures for, 85 standards for, 79 by 2010, 85 Military radioactive wastes, reprocessing, 301–306 Milora, S.L., 413, 415 Minimum energy-use scenario, 557–559 Mining engineers, 187 Missed accident sequences, 284 Modeling Resource Group, 102, 530 and demand projections, 593–609 econometric studies by, 110–114 and GNP growth, 537–538 limitations on results of, 113–114 members of, 653 Models, 529–532 for buildings, 544–546 and carbon dioxide, 473 of electricity rates, 211–213 energy consumption, integrating model. 548–557 for industry, 547–548 simulation models, 545 of Supply and Delivery Panel, 559–564 transportation projections, 546–547 Moderately enhanced conditions scenario, 132–134 Modified in situ process, 138–139 Molten magma, 400, 409, 415 Molten-salt breeder reactor (MSBR), 38, 246 Monetary policies and inflation, 508–509 Montana, 153–155, 157, 194 Mosses and sulfur dioxide, 466 Mount Lassen National Park, 404 MPG. See Miles per gallon MSBR. See Molten-salt breeder reactor Municipal waste processing. See Biomass Mutation, 444 Nagasaki, 432–434 National Academy of Sciences and nuclear reactor safety, 279 and sabotage of nuclear facilities, 292–293 National Aerometric Data Bank, 452 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), 162 National commitment scenario, 132–134 geothermal energy production, 417 National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, 439, 443 National economy, moderating consumption affecting, 102–115 National Energy Act of 1978, 202, 474 National Energy Plan of 1977, 56–57 coal use, 158–160 water requirements of, 202 National energy policies, 64–65 National Environmental Policy Act, 162 and ecosystem, 475 National Historic Preservation Act, 162 National output and GNP, 104 National Research Council, 180 Natural gas, 63–64, 513 accidents, 430 in brine deposits, 405–406

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems coal producing, 160 ecosystem risks, 480 Energy Information Administration projections, 564 exporters of, 522 and geopressured reservoirs, 414 growth in, 501 imports of, 140–141 liquefied (LNG). See Liquefied natural gas and oil demand, 569 price increases for, 582 production of, 18 projections for prices, 539 reserves, 515 risk factors, 60 supply of, 140–144 synthetic. See Synthetic fuels transportation of, 515 from unconventional sources, 142, 619 Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978, 184 Natural Resources Defense Council, 192 Natural steam reservoirs, 399, 403–404, 410–412 Netherlands, 390, 509 New Source Performance Standards, 166 Nigeria, 136–137, 504 1973 oil embargo, 77 Nitrogen fertilizer production, 369 Nitrogen oxides, 51, 166–167 No significant deterioration areas, emissions, 426 No-threshold dose-effect curve, 481 Non-Proliferation Treaty, 219, 328, 330, 332, 335 Nordhaus, W., 123–124 Nordhaus models of demand, 602–604 Normal-gradient geothermal heat, 399–400, 408, 415 North American Coal, 195 North Dakota, 153–155 North Sea, 135–136 natural gas from, 509, 515 oil discoveries in, 517–518 Norway, 467–468 Nuclear Converters and Fuel Cycle Resource Group, 652 Nuclear Energy Policy Study Group and WASH-1400, 285–286 Nuclear explosives, 407 Nuclear fuels. See also Plutonium; Uranium Civex cycle, 322–324 denaturing, 321–322 ecosystem risks from mining, 481 for fast breeder reactors, 252 and health risks, 442 reprocessing, 65, 522, 524–525; through breeder reactors, 214; illegal diversion during, 218–219; for light water reactors, 215; technological designs for, 223–224; wastes from, 218 safeguards for, 318–326 safety of, 279–296 spent nuclear fuel, 318–319 substituted for electricity, 570 theft of, 324–325 Nuclear fusion, 385–396 conclusions, 396 costs of, 394 criteria for deployment of, 393–395 development of, timetable, 393–395 fuel cycles, 387–389 heat and confinement, 389–392 hybrid fusion-fission fuel cycles, 388–389 inertial confinement, 389–392 magnetic confinement, 389–390 program for, 395 reaction, 386 reference designs for, 395 Nuclear power, 4, 15, 24–37, 210–239 accelerator breeders, 213 accidents, 53–55, 216–217, 281–289 add-on costs, 271–272 advanced converters. See Advanced converters balanced with coal, 70 breeder reactor. See Breeder reactors capital costs, 264–265 catastrophes, 460–463 and climatic changes, 58 and coal, 163–164, 213 colocation of facilities, 336 conclusions, 220–222 costs of, 262–278 demand projections, 570 developing countries and, 66–67, 526 diversion of, 218–220 ecological effect of, 56, 481 electricity, demand for, 30, 32, 521–522 in energy-consumption integrating model, 553 Energy Information Administration projections, 564 escalation of costs, 265–266 fast breeder reactors. See Breeder reactors fuels. See Nuclear fuels fusion. See Nuclear fusion fusion-fission devices, 213 growth in, 226–227, 501, 504 health risks, 438–444 heavy water reactors. See Heavy water reactors

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems hybrid fusion-fission fuel cycles, 388–389 International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation (INFCE), 218 international safeguards, 525 issues, 25 large-scale accidents, 53–55 light water reactors. See Light water reactor loss-of-coolant accident, 282–283 normal operational safety, 281 plant capacity, 266–267 plutonium. See Plutonium proliferation as problem, 218–220, 225, 326–338 public opinion on, 36–37, 260–262 radioactive waste. See Radioactive wastes recommendations of committee, 222–225 regulation of plants, 278–279 risks, 60–61, 272, 487–488 routine operation, risks from, 443–444 sabotage, 53–55, 292–294 safety of, 215–225, 279–296 scenarios for growth, 226–227 stockpiles of weapons, 219 thermal breeders, 215 Three Mile Island. See Three Mile Island trade deficits and, 523 transuranic wastes, 224 uranium. See Uranium wastes. See Radioactive wastes weapons. See Nuclear weapons world perspectives on, 523 worldwide investment in, 523 Nuclear Regulatory Administration, 424, 461 Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 36, 53, 278–279 costs and health risks, 443 licensing process, 425 light water reactor exposure, 441 and liquid-metal fast breeder reactor, 291–292 and radioactive waste standards, 316 and security for transporting fuel, 325 Nuclear Regulatory Commission Act of 1975, 424 Nuclear Safety Analysis Center, 36 Nuclear weapons, 32–34 and enrichment of uranium, 235–236 fusion devices and, 47 hybrid fusion-fission fuel cycles and, 388–389 manufacture of, 27 proliferation of, 71, 326–338, 524–525 wastes from production, 224–225 Occupational exposure to radiation, 439 Occupational Safety and Health Administration, 424 Ocean, biomass production in, 377 Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), 42, 56, 346, 371–372 and ecosystem risks, 478 Ocean waves, energy from, 371 Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), 188–189 Offshore drilling, 524 Offshore oil exploration, 517 Ohio, 153, 157 Oil accidents, 430 combustion of, 450 conventional oil reserves, 517, 522 demand, 137 depletion allowance, 77 ecosystem risks of, 480 embargo, 1973, 77 entitlements scheme, 121, 524 estimates of recoverable resources, 517–518 exploration boom, 518 global perspectives on production of, 63 high-cost reserves, 517–518, 522 imports. See Imports long-range perspectives, 521 offshore exploration, 517 price controls. See Price controls price increase of 1973–1974, 505–508, 526–527 problem of, 618 production peak in 1990s, 129 projection for price of, 539 projections for production of, 130–134 reserves, 17, 129–130, 515–518 resources, 129 risk factors, 60 supply of, 128–144 synthetic fuels, 180–181 world production, 136–138, 500–505, 521 Oil depletion allowance, 77 Oil shale, 19, 56, 138–139, 480, 513, 517, 564 Oil spills, 480 Once-through fuel cycles, 214, 248–249 OPEC. See Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 62 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 63, 135, 137 conservation policies affecting, 523–524 and conservation tax, 605–606 developing countries and, 526

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems dominance of, 518 exports, 1969–1973, 505 formation of, 507 long-range perspectives, 521–522 prices controlled by, 522 production, 1973–1977, 509 Soviet resources and, 522 trade deficit and, 67 U.S. national energy policy and, 523–525 OTA. See Office of Technology Assessment OTEC. See Ocean thermal energy conversion Output resource group, 652 Ozone, 453 and spinach, 467 and tobacco, 466–467 Papadopulos, S.S., 405 Particulates, 51 from coal, 167–168 Pebble-bed reactor, 246–247 Pennsylvania, 153, 155, 157 Per capita energy consumption, 62 Perl, L.J., 267, 270 Persian Gulf production, 1960–1973, 504 Personal Income in developing countries, 525–526 Petrochemical feedstocks, 184–185, 513 Petroleum. See Oil Petroleum Resource Group, 653 Phosphate, uranium as byproduct of, 520 Photochemical conversion, 373, 378–380 oxidants and plant life, 466 to produce fluid fuels, 42–43 Photolysis, 378 Photovoltaic conversion, 40–41, 368–369 Photovoltaic solar cells, 346 Physical research, 116 Pinto beans and pollution, 466 Pittsburg coal bed, 153 Pittston Corp., 195 Plankton, 371 Plant life, risks to, 465–467 Plant monocultures, 377 Plasma, 386, 388–390, 395 Plutonium, 27 Civex cycle, 322–324 ecosystem risks from mining of, 481 for LMFBR, 215 wastes. See Radioactive wastes Pneumoconiosis, 431 Poland, coal resources, 513 Polar ice, melting of, 473 Political risks, 484–485 Pollution air pollution. See Air pollution and biomass production, 377 and coal conversion, 140 coal producing, 20 and electric vehicles, 85 synthetic liquid fuels, 181 water pollution. See Water pollution Population and demand, 76–77 exposure to radiation, 439 projection of growth, 534–535 and public transportation, 89–90 Potatoes and sulfur dioxide, 466 Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978, 21, 148, 158, 161, 183 Pre-irradiation, 326 President’s National Energy Plan of 1977, 474 Pressurized-water reactor (PWR), 245 Price controls. See Price controls and demand for oil, 137 elasticity of, 14, 77–78, 110–112 for electricity, 16–17 GNP and behavior of, 107 increase for oil, 5–6 rise of 1973–1974, 505–508 smooth rise of, 121 Price-Anderson Act, 347 Price-Anderson insurance, 271 Price controls, 143–144, 509, 520–521 effect of, 64–65 elimination of, 121 national energy policy, 524 Price-induced shifts toward less energy-intensive goods and services, 5 Projections, 7, 9, 11, 544–557 Property taxes and solar energy systems, 356–357 Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, 14, 130 Public health risks, 432–459 Public opinion on energy standards, 490 on nuclear power, 215–216, 260–262 and risks, 482–483 Public transportation buses, 90 car pools, 90 in foreign countries, 109 population and, 89–90 van pools, 90, 547 Public utilities. See Utilities Public Utility Holding Company Act, 99 Publications of CONAES study, 656–657 Pulmonary fibrosis, 431 Pulmonary heart disease, 436 Pumped hydroelectric storage, 172–173 Purex, 319 Pyrolysis, 178–179, 374

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems Quadrillion Btu (quads) for buildings, 90 for cogeneration, 97–98 transportation, use of, 84 Radiation and coal use, 53 dose-effect relationships, 50 from fusion reactors, 387–388 health risks, 432–434 of reprocessed nuclear fuel, 320 and safety, 279–296 Radioactive wastes, 34–36, 210, 215–225 alpha-active wastes, 301 and Atomic Energy Commission, 314–315 bunkers for storing, 314 Civex cycle, 322–324 denaturing, 321–322 disposal, treatment for, 307–309 environmental protection program for, 224 and fusion, 47 hazards of disposing, 311–314 health risks from disposal of, 447–448 isolation requirements, 297–298 management of, 25, 296–318 public concern, 218 reprocessing, 300–305; military wastes, 301–306; safeguards for, 319–321 spent fuel as, 306–307 standards for, 316 theft of, 324–325 transuranic wastes, 224 treatment for disposal, 307–309 types of, 298–307 underground repositories for, 310–311 from weapons, 224–225 Raffinates, 300 Railroads coal, transportation of, 195–196 efficiency projections for, 86–87 international comparisons, 109 lands, 193 Thermal efficiency of, 106 Rain acid precipitation, 467–468 and air pollution, 458 Rasmussen Report. See WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Review Group, 54 Reactor safety study, 53, 283–289, 295–296 on liquid-metal fast breeder reactors, 291 Reactors. See Nuclear power Recession, 4 and GNP growth rate, 599–600 of 1974–1975, 508–509 Recycling in industry, 97 for light water reactors, 249–250 Reed, 404 Reference designs for nuclear fusion program, 395 Refining synthetic liquid fuels, 181 Refrigerators, efficiency of, 90 Regional development banks, 67, 527 Registration fees for automobiles, 85 Regulations enforcement of, 425 and fission pollution levels, 449–454 of nuclear power plants, 278–279 and risk, 424–427, 483–484 Reistad, G.M., 407, 414 Rental housing and conservation goals, 122 Reprocessing nuclear power. See Nuclear power radioactive wastes. See Radioactive wastes Research and development biomass technologies, 372–373 coal. See Coal in conservation technology, 115–116 geothermal energy, 398 nuclear fusion, 385–386 solar electricity, 365 of solar energy, 352 solar fuel production, 372–373 synthetic gas from coal, 177 wave energy converters, 371 Reserves-to-production ratio, 130 Resource Conservation and Energy Act of 1976, 424 Respirable mass sampler, 431 Retrofitting, 362–364 advantages of, 91 of buildings, 90–91 for heating systems, 91 Risk and Impact Panel on carbon dioxide, 471 and health risks, 427 and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, 292 and land reclamation, 474 members of, 651–652 on nuclear accidents, 217 solar energy, 366 WASH-1400, 284–285 water supply, consumption of, 200–202 Risks, 422–499 accidents. See Accidents to agriculture, 463–467 assessments, 70–71 catastrophes, 459–463 control, limits of, 485–486 death. See Death

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems defined, 423–427 to ecosystem, 475–481 of energy systems, 48–61 health risks, 427–463 industrial, routine, 428 limitations in assessing, 481–482 for nuclear power, 272 perception of, 482–483 public health risks, 432–459 and regulation, 424, 483–484 total risk assessment, 424 to water supply, 473–475 Rooftop solar collectors, 477 Rose, David J., 623–626, 641 Routine reactor operations, 443–446 Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 326 Rural Electric Associations, 331 Sabotage, 53–55, 292–294 Safety. See Health and safety Salt mines, storing radioactive waste in, 314–315 Samuels, G., 200 Saudi Arabia, 135–136, 527 Savannah River nuclear plant, 312 Sawdust as energy source, 569 Scenario Resource Group, 654 Schultz, R.J., 413 Scientific feasibility for fusion, 393 Security measures for nuclear fuel, 324–325 SEFOR, 252 Seismic disturbances. See Earthquakes Seismicity and hydraulic fracturing, 408 Separative work units (SWU’s), 236–237 Severe genetic defects, 444 Shale oil, 19, 56, 138–139, 480, 513, 517, 564 Shenandoah solar total energy system, Georgia, 366 Shipping of nuclear fuel, 324–325 oil, risks, 480 Shortages of oil and gas, 143 and standard of living, 102 Simulation models for building projections, 545 Skytherm House in Atascadero, California, 360 Slurry pipelines for coal, 196 Small businesses and conservation goal conflicts, 122 Smoking, 435–436 Social equity and conservation, 122–123 Social risks, 484–485 Sociopolitical issues, 58–59 Solar energy, 39–46, 345–346 active systems, 345, 355–357, 359–362 and add-on costs, 271 advantages of, 347 biomass. See Biomass building designs using, 90, 359–362 and building standards, 361 cadmium sulfide cells, 368 categories of, 345–346 and climatic changes, 57–58 collectors, 355–358 committee’s recommendation, 71 conclusions, 380–382 consumer decisions, 353–354 cooling by, 349 costs, 347, 351–352; building designs and, 361–362; collectors, 355–356; installation costs in existing buildings, 362–363; installed space heating systems, 355–357; ocean thermal conversion, 371; photovoltaic conversion, 368–369; water heating systems, 354–355 design of buildings for, 359–362 direct thermal use of, 39–40, 345–346, 352–362 domestic water heating, 363 economics of, 352–353, 381–382 and ecosystem risks, 477–478 electric technologies, 346 and electricity, 40–42, 349–350, 358, 364–372, 382, 521 electrolysis, 373 electrotytic conversion, 380 energy-conserving designs, 359–362 environment and health, 347; photovoltaic generators, 369; thermal conversion plants, 366–367; wind energy conversion, 370 existing buildings, retrofitting for, 362–364 federal tax credit for, 354 fluid fuels, production of, 42–43 fuels, production of, 346, 372–380, 382 government’s role in, 382 greenhouses added to existing structures, 363 heating by, 349, 381 high-energy scenario, 348–351 incentives for, 354 and industrial heat process, 358–359 for industry, 548 insulation, 362 in integrating model, 553 leak tightening, 362 life-cycle costs of heating system, 353–354 and long-term development, 352, 381

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems low-energy scenario, 348 maximum-solar scenario, 562 ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), 371–372 passive systems, 345–346, 355, 359–362 photochemical conversion, 373, 378–380 photovoltaic conversion, 368–369, 562 prefabricated units, 356 private industry and, 382 repowering of existing plants, 366 research and development, 352–365 retrofitting for, 362–364 risk factors, 61, 488–489 semiconductor technology, 368 silicon cells, 368 space-based, 372 space heating and cooling, 352, 355–358 steam-producing collectors, 359 subsidies, 347–348 thermal conversion, 41, 346, 350, 365–368 thermochemical conversion, 373, 380 total energy systems, 349–350, 366, 368 2010, projection for, 92 water heating, 354–355 wind energy conversion, 369–370 Solar Energy Research Institute, 355–356 Solar photovoltaics, 368–369, 562 Solar Resource Group, 652 agricultural wastes, amount of energy in, 375 on building projections, 546 and solar space cooling, 357 and wind energy conversion, 370 Solar space cooling, 352, 355–358 Solar thermal central station power plant, 45, 346, 350, 365–368 counterproductiveness of, 382 as demonstration program, 352 environmental assessment of, 366–367 Solvent-extraction processes, 178–179 South Africa SASOL plants in, 178 uranium reserves in, 518–520 Southern California Edison, 170 Southwest and solar thermal conversion plants, 366–368 Soviet Union, 135 and International Fusion Research Council, 390 long-range perspectives, 522 natural gas in, 522 uranium reserves in, 519 Space heating and brine deposits, 399 and geothermal energy, 397, 400 and solar energy, 352, 355–358 Space, solar energy systems in, 372 Spectral-shift-control reactor (SSCR), 245, 247 fuel utilization, 254 Spent nuclear fuel, 306–307, 318–319 Spinach and ozone, 467 Spinrad, Bernard I., 618, 623–625, 628, 631, 637–638, 640–641 Stack gas scrubbers, 124 Standard of living, 102 Standards. See Mandatory standards Staten Island natural gas disaster, 459 Steam by-product steam marketing, 98 cogeneration of, 97–99 natural steam reservoirs, 399, 403–404, 410–412 Stellarators, 390 Stirling engines, 87 Stockpiles of nuclear weapons, 219, 335 Storm windows, 91 Stowaway fuel cycle, 309 Subsidence and geopressured reservoirs, 406 Subsidies, 75–76, 78 and add-on costs for nuclear power, 271–272 elimination of, 121 foreign royalties, income tax on, 78 and geothermal energy, 398 oil depletion allowance, 77 oil shale, 138 for retrofitting, 91 for solar energy, 347–348 synthetic fuels, 140 Sulfates, 51, 456 Sulfur dioxides, 164–166 from coal, 151 and plant life, 466 risks, 456 Sulfur and nitrogen oxides, 51 Sun, temperatures of, 386 Supply and Delivery Panel, 131, 531–533 electricity, demand for, 211–213 geothermal energy production, 417 members of, 651–652 oil shale reports, 138 projections of, 559–566 uranium production rates, 213 world production estimates, 135 Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act, 191–192, 424 Surface retorting techniques, 138–139 Sweden acid precipitation in, 467–468 GDP and energy use, 108 household energy use in, 109–110

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems industrial energy use in, 109–110 uranium resources, 520 Swing fuel, coal as, 582–583 Swink, D.G., 413 SWU. See Separative work units Synthetic fuels, 4, 16, 56, 69 coal conversion, 143 derived from coal, 139–140, 173–178 ecosystem risks and, 479 Energy Information Administration projections, 564 and high-consumption scenarios, 585 Synthesis Panel, 654 Tacoma, Washington, 179 Tailings. See Uranium Tar sands, 512–513, 517 Tariffs on imported oil, 64–65 synthetic fuels production, 139 Taxation conservation tax, 113, 115, 605–606 on energy, 77, 605–608 gasohol exempt from, 377 and geothermal energy, 398, 416 and recycling, 97 solar energy systems, 354, 356 solar heating systems, credit for, 347 Technical efficiency, 5, 11, 68–69 Technical terms, glossary of, 643–648 Technology capital availability for development of, 111–112 feasibility for fusion, 393 research and, 115–116 Television reception and wind-turbine interference, 370 Temperature and carbon dioxide, 471–472 Terrorists and nuclear power, 210 Tester, J.W., 413, 415 Texaco, 170 Texas, 155 brine deposits in, 405 Texas Railroad Commission, 78 Theft of nuclear fuel, 324–325 Thermal breeders, 215 Thermal efficiency, 104–105 Thermal leak tightening, 362 Thermal performance standards, 79 Thermal systems. See Heating systems Thermochemical processes, 373, 380 Thermonuclear fusion, 46–48, 72 Thorex, 319 Thorium, 27, 66, 214–215 breeders generating, 215 denatured thorium cycle, 218 Three Mile Island, 36, 217, 289, 460–461 contaminated water from, 282 and mechanical failure, 482 and Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 279 and perception of risks, 483 public opinion, 260 and risk costs, 272 Th-U fuel cycle, 239–241, 245 Tobacco and ozone, 466–467 Tobin, J., 123–124 Tokamaks, 389–390 Total energy production in U.S., 1–2 Total primary energy use, 559 Towse, D.F., 412–413 Tradeoffs in energy, 79, 121 Transportation, 84–90 air travel. See Air Travel automobiles. See Automobiles of coal, 195–197 demand projections for, 87–90 international comparisons, 109 of natural gas, 141–142 projections, 546–547 public transportation. See Public transportation railroads. See Railroads truck freight. See Trucking Transportation Resource Group, 650 Trees and solar power, 477 Tributyl phosphate for reprocessing, 319 Tritium, 386–387 Trucking efficiency projections for, 86–87 international comparisons, 109 projections for, 547 Uncontrolled class of pollutants, 452–453 Underground coal gasification, 176 Underground mining accidents, 430–432 ccosystem risks of, 479 Underground repositories for nuclear waste, 310–311 Underpricing of energy, 76 Unemployment and GNP, 537 Union of Concerned Scientists, 285 United Arab Emirates, 527 United Mine Workers of America (UMW), 187 United States crude oil production, 1960–1973, 501 energy trade deficit, 523 GNP, slowdown in growth of, 525 and International Fusion Research Council, 390 national energy policies, 523–525 oil consumption, 1973–1977, 509 oil exploration in, 518

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems and oil price rise of 1973–1974, 505–508 oil reserves in, 515, 517 price control, 520–521 production and consumption, 1960–1973, 500–505 trade deficit, 523 uranium exports, 522 uranium reserves in, 518–519 Uranium, 25–26, 63, 513 availability of, 213, 227–239 breeder reactors and, 525 for CANDU advanced converter, 215 cascading of, 329 costs of, 270 denaturing, 321–322 in developing countries, 526 ecosystem risks from mining, 481 enrichment, 65, 235–238 exploration for, 231–234 export of, 64, 523 growth in requirements for, 226–227 international cartel, 520 laser separation of, 236 for light water breeder reactor, 214–215 limiting exports of, 523 long-range perspectives, 522 low-grade mineralizations, 520 lung cancer in miners, 432 mining hazards, 216 national energy policy and, 524–525 price of, 63, 65, 522, 524–525 reprocessing. See Nuclear power reserves, 518–520 resources, 25–26 Soviet reserves, 513 tailings, 298–301, 623; through CANDU reactor, 214; and enrichment, 236; environmental protection program, 224; as health risk, 623; for LMFBR’S, 215; radioactive emissions from, 216 timetable for expansion of discovery, 233–234 wastes. See Radioactive wastes world resources in, 518–520 Uranium Resource Group, 213, 229, 233–234 URENCO and enrichment programs, 235 Useful life of equipment, 103 U.S. Geological Survey, 310–311, 400 U.S.G.S. Circular 726, 403–405 U.S.S.R. See Soviet Union Utilities community-based systems, 90–91 contracts and geothermal energy, 398 district heat, 98 and geothermal energy, 416 and nuclear costs, 264 Van pools, 90 Vans, projections for, 547 Vegetables and pollution, 466 Venezuela, 135–137 Venezuelan oil, 63, 507, 517 Virginia, 157 Volcanoes and radioactive waste, 312 Wall insulation. See Insulation WASH-740, 261 WASH-1400, 53–54, 283–289 and catastrophe, 461–463 and mechanical failure, 482 Rasmussen Report, 283–289 Waste. See Radioactive wastes Waste Calcination Facility of Idaho Reprocessing Plant, 309 Waste-heat recovery in industry, 96–97 Waste management, 55 Water heating and solar energy, 354–355 Water pollution from chicken factories, 375 and GNP, 123 hot water reservoirs and, 403 Water supply, 20–21, 56–57 and coal, 140, 147, 197–203 consumption of, 197–200 and energy farming, 377 estimating permissible consumption levels, 200, 203 geothermal resources as, 416 national data bank, 197, 203 National Energy Plan of 1977 and, 202 precipitation, 197–198 and radioactive waste disposal, 313, 447 risks to, 467–475, 488 runoff, 197–198 and solar thermal conversion plants, 367 Weapons. See Nuclear weapons Weeden, S.L., 414 West Germany freight transportation in, 109 GNP and energy use, 108 and International Fusion Research Council, 390 lignite in, 513 West Virginia, 153, 157, 185 Western Europe coal mining in, 513–515 and oil price rise of 1973–1974, 505–508 oil reserves in, 517 production and consumption, 1960–1973, 500–505

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Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems Wet scrubbers, 167, 168 Wildlife and solar thermal conversion plants, 367 Wind energy conversion, 349–350, 369–370 Wind power, 41, 346, 478 Work-force participation, 535, 537 Working Group in HTGR Safety, 292 World banking system and developing countries, 527 World Energy Conference, 513 World energy perspectives, 62–64, 520–523 World energy production and consumption, 1960–1973, 500–505 1973–1977, 509 World oil situation, 136–138 World recoverable energy reserves, 513 Wyodak coal bed, 155 Wyoming, 153–155, 157, 194 Wyoming Basins uranium deposit, 231–233 Yellowstone National Park, 403–404 Zero energy growth and GNP, 112 Zirconium and cladding hulls, 307