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STUDIES IN GEOPHYSICS

Climate in Earth History

Geophysics Study Committee

Geophysics Research Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS

Washington, D.C.

1982



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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics STUDIES IN GEOPHYSICS Climate in Earth History Geophysics Study Committee Geophysics Research Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1982

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the Councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for this report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities, It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. The Geophysics Study Committee is pleased to acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Department of Energy (Grant # DE-FG02–80ER10757) for the conduct of this study. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: Climate in earth history. (Studies in geophysics) Papers presented at the American Geophysical Union meeting, held in Toronto, May 1980. Includes bibliographies. 1. Paleoclimatology—Addresses, essays, lectures. 2. Historical geology—Addresses, essays, lectures. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Geophysical Study Committee. II. American Geophysical Union. Meeting (1980: Toronto, Ont.) III. Series. QC884.C574 1982 551.69 82–18857 ISBN 0-309-03329-2 Available from NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics Panel on Pre-Pleistocene Climates WOLFGANG H.BERGER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Cochairman JOHN C.CROWELL, University of California, Santa Barbara, Cochairman MICHAEL A.ARTHUR, University of South Carolina WILLIAM A.BERGGREN, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution ARTHUR J.BOUCOT, Oregon State University GARRETT W.BRASS, University of Miami DAVID L.CLARK, University of Wisconsin HANS P.EUGSTER, The Johns Hopkins University J.FERRER, Exxon Production Research-European ALFRED G.FISCHER, Princeton University W.LAWRENCE GATES, Oregon State University JANE GRAY, University of Oregon ANTHONY HALLAM, The University of Birmingham, England BILAL U.HAQ, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution JON HARDENBOL, Exxon Production Research Company WILLIAM W.HAY, Joint Oceanographic Institution W.T.HOLSER, University of Oregon JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University L.D.KEIGWIN, JR., Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution THEODORE C.MOORE, JR., Exxon Production Research Company

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics W.H.PETERSON, University of Miami NICKLAS G.PISIAS, Oregon State University JAMES B.POLLACK, National Aeronautics and Space Administration RICHARD Z.POORE, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston E.SALTZMAN, University of Miami SAMUEL M.SAVIN, Case Western Reserve University J.L.SLOAN II, University of Miami J.R.SOUTHAM, University of Miami HANS R.THIERSTEIN, Scripps Institution of Oceanography PETER R.VAIL, Exxon Production Research Company JAMES W.VALENTINE, University of California, Santa Barbara FRANKLYN B.VAN HOUTEN, Princeton University JACK A.WOLFE, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics Geophysics Study Committee CHARLES L.DRAKE, Dartmouth College, Chairman LOUIS J.BATTAN, University of Arizona, Vice Chairman JOHN D.BREDEHOEFT, U.S. Geological Survey ALLAN V.COX, Stanford University JOHN C.CROWELL, University of California, Santa Barbara HUGH ODISHAW, University of Arizona CHARLES B.OFFICER, Dartmouth College RAYMOND G.ROBLE, National Center for Atmospheric Research Liaison Representatives BRUCE B.HANSHAW, U.S. Geological Survey GEORGE A.KOLSTAD, Department of Energy MURLI MANGHNANI, National Science Foundation NED OSTENSO, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WILLIAM RANEY, National Aeronautics and Space Administration CARL F.ROMNEY, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Staff THOMAS M.USSELMAN

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics Geophysics Research Board PHILIP H.ABELSON, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Chairman CHARLES R.BENTLEY, University of Wisconsin JOHN D.BREDEHOEFT, U.S. Geological Survey A.G.W.CAMERON, Harvard College Observatory DORIS M.CURTIS, Houston, Texas JOHN C.CROWELL, University of California, Santa Barbara WILLIAM R.DICKINSON, University of Arizona CHARLES L.DRAKE, Dartmouth College JOHN V.EVANS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WILLIAM A.FOWLER, California Institute of Technology KATE H.HADLEY, Exxon Company ARTHUR E.MAXWELL, University of Texas at Austin JOHN C.MAXWELL, University of Texas at Austin THOMAS V.McEVILLY, University of California, Berkeley V.RAMA MURTHY, University of Minnesota HUGH ODISHAW, University of Arizona RICHARD J.REED, University of Washington ALAN H.SHAPLEY, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration EUGENE M.SHOEMAKER, U.S. Geological Survey JOHN H.STEELE, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics MURRAY STRASBERG, U.S. Navy VERNER E.SUOMI, University of Wisconsin EINAR A.TANDBERG-HANSSEN, National Aeronautics and Space Administration BYRON D.TAPLEY, University of Texas at Austin CHARLES A.WHITTEN, Silver Spring, Maryland Ex Officio LOUIS J.BATTAN, University of Arizona OWEN GINGERICH, Smithsonian/Harvard Center for Astrophysics C.GORDON LITTLE, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ARTHUR L.SCHAWLOW, Stanford University Staff PEMBROKE J.HART

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources HERBERT FRIEDMAN, National Research Council, Cochairman ROBERT M.WHITE, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Cochairman STANLEY I.AUERBACH, Oak Ridge National Laboratory ELKAN R.BLOUT, Harvard Medical School WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University BERNARD F.BURKE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology HERMAN CHERNOFF, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WALTER R.ECKELMANN, Exxon Corporation JOSEPH L.FISHER, Office of the Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia JAMES C.FLETCHER, University of Pittsburgh WILLIAM A.FOWLER, California Institute of Technology GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory EDWARD A.FRIEMAN, Science Applications, Inc. EDWARD D.GOLDBERG, Scripps Institution of Oceanography KONRAD B.KRAUSKOPF, Stanford University CHARLES J.MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey WALTER H. MUNK, University of California, San Diego NORTON NELSON, New York University Medical Center DANIEL A.OKUN, University of North Carolina GEORGE E.PAKE, Xerox Research Center DAVID PIMENTEL, Cornell University CHARLES K.REED, National Research Council HATTEN S.YODER, JR., Carnegie Institution of Washington RAPHAEL G.KASPER, Executive Director

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics Studies in Geophysics* ENERGY AND CLIMATE Roger R.Revelle, panel chairman, 1977, 158 pp. CLIMATE, CLIMATIC CHANGE, AND WATER SUPPLY James R.Wallis, panel chairman, 1977, 132 pp. ESTUARIES, GEOPHYSICS, AND THE ENVIRONMENT Charles B.Officer, panel chairman, 1977, 127 pp. THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND MAGNETOSPHERE Francis S.Johnson, panel chairman, 1977, 169 pp. GEOPHYSICAL PREDICTIONS Helmut E.Landsberg, panel chairman, 1978, 215 pp. IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON GEOPHYSICS Homer E.Newell, panel chairman, 1979, 121 pp. CONTINENTAL TECTONICS B.Clark Burchfiel, Jack E.Oliver, and Leon T.Silver, panel cochairmen, 1980, 197 pp. MINERAL RESOURCES: GENETIC UNDERSTANDING FOR PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS Paul B.Barton, Jr., panel chairman, 1981, 118 pp. SCIENTIFIC BASIS OF WATER-RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Myron B.Fiering, panel chairman, 1982, 127 pp. SOLAR VARIABILITY, WEATHER, AND CLIMATE John A.Eddy, panel chairman, 1982, 106 pp. CLIMATE IN EARTH HISTORY Wolfgang H.Berger and John C.Crowell, panel cochairmen, 1982, 198 pp. * Published to date.

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics Preface In 1974 the Geophysics Research Board completed a plan, subsequently approved by the Committee on Science and Public Policy of the National Academy of Sciences, for a series of studies to be carried out on various subjects related to geophysics. The Geophysics Study Committee was established to provide guidance in the conduct of the studies. One purpose of the studies is to provide assessments from the scientific community to aid policymakers in decisions on societal problems that involve geophysics. An important part of such an assessment is an evaluation of the adequacy of present geophysical knowledge and the appropriateness of present research programs to provide information required for those decisions. Some of the studies place more emphasis on assessing the present status of a field of geophysics and identifying the most promising directions for future research. This study was initiated in response to the recommendation in the report Geological Perspectives on Climatic Change (National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., 1978). The recommendation called for the following: “(1) to assess the state of the art, …and to stimulate progress in geological aspects of climate research; (2) to evaluate comprehensively and in detail the research opportunities in, the operational needs of, and the scientific and societal relevance of geological and geophysical processes affecting the understanding of climate and climatic forecasting; and (3) to recommend the appropriate geological content of a national and global climate pro-

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics gram.” In considering this recommendation, the Geophysics Study Committee felt that the major geologic and geophysical questions concerning climate were those found in the pre-Pleistocene (older than 2 million years) record. The study was developed through meetings of the Geophysics Study Committee and the Panel on Pre-Pleistocene Climates. The preliminary scientific findings of the panel were presented at an American Geophysical Union meeting that took place in Toronto in May 1980. These presentations and the essays contained in this volume provide examples of current basic knowledge of the climate in the geologic past. They also pose many of the fundamental questions and uncertainties that require additional research. In completing their papers, the authors had the benefit of discussion at this symposium as well as comments of several scientific referees. Responsibility for the individual essays rests with the corresponding authors. The Overview of the study summarizes the highlights of the essays and formulates conclusions and recommendations. In preparing it, the panel chairmen had the benefit of meetings that took place at the symposium, the comments of the panel of authors, and selected referees. Responsibility for the Overview rests with the Geophysics Study Committee and the chairmen of the panel.

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics Contents OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS   3 BACKGROUND     1.   The Role of Prediction in Paleoclimatology John Imbrie   21 2.   Paleoclimatic Modeling—A Review with Reference to Problems and Prospects for the Pre-Pleistocene W.Lawrence Gates   26 3.   Climate Steps in Ocean History—Lessons from the Pleistocene Wolfgang H.Berger   43 4.   The Carbon Cycle—Controls on Atmospheric CO2 and Climate in the Geologic Past Michael A.Arthur   55 5.   Solar, Astronomical, and Atmospheric Effects on Climate James B.Pollack   68

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Climate in Earth History: Studies in Geophysics           6.   Continental Glaciation through Geologic Time John C.Crowell   77 7.   Ocean Circulation, Plate Tectonics, and Climate Garrett W.Brass, E.Saltzman, J.L.Sloan II, J.R.Southam, William W.Hay, W.T.Holser, and W.H.Peterson   83 8.   The Terminal Cretaceous Extinction Event and Climatic Stability Hans R.Thierstein   90 9.   Long-Term Climatic Oscillations Recorded in Stratigraphy Alfred G.Fischer   97 10.   Climatic Significance of Lake and Evaporite Deposits Hans P.Eugster   105 11.   Ancient Soils and Ancient Climates Franklyn B.Van Houten   112 12.   Role of Ocean Gateways in Climatic Change William A.Berggren   118 13.   Climatic Acme Events in the Sea and on Land Bilal U.Haq   126 14.   The Arctic Ocean and Post-Jurassic Paleoclimatology David L.Clark   133 15.   Interpreting Paleoenvironments, Subsidence History, and Sea-Level Changes of Passive Margins from Seismic and Biostratigraphy Jon Hardenbol, Peter R.Vail, and J.Ferrer   139 16.   Tertiary Marine and Nonmarine Climatic Trends Jack A.Wolfe and Richard Z.Poore   154 17.   The Jurassic Climate Anthony Hallam   159 18.   Stable Isotopes in Climatic Reconstructions Samuel M.Savin   164 19.   Cenozoic Variability of Oxygen Isotopes in Benthic Foraminifera Theodore C.Moore, Jr., Nicklas G.Pisias, and L.D.Keigwin, Jr.   172 20.   Seasonality and the Structure of the Biosphere James W.Valentine   184 21.   Paleozoic Data of Climatological Significance and Their Use for Interpreting Silurian-Devonian Climate Arthur J.Boucot and Jane Gray   189