the expected benefits of the program using the committee’s methodology applied to DOE’s expectation of program outcomes as well as the alternative outcomes anticipated by the panel. The third section of the template provides the panel’s findings and conclusions and expert opinions regarding the application of the methodology to the program.
In addition, panels must prepare a brief report—about 10 pages—to include background, summary of the DOE program, technical and market risk assessment, results and discussion, technical and market success, benefits estimation, role of DOE funding, decision tree, benefits calculations, results matrix, summary, and conclusions (including recommendations).
The first section of the benefits results template will provide summary information characterizing the DOE program. This information will include an identification of the program goals; funding, including outside funding; and the program’s critical interdependencies with other DOE program efforts. This information is provided directly by DOE.
The results matrix in the template is for presenting the panel’s views of the program’s technical and market risks and the expected benefits of the R&D program. Market risks reflect the panel’s expert opinion of the program’s market acceptance assuming that the goals have been met. Assessing the market risk includes consideration of price, infrastructure development and support, ease of use, competition from other technologies or innovations, time, and end-user preferences. In the committee’s decision tree framework, there is no single point estimate of technical or market risk, owing to the many possible outcomes. The quantitative estimates of probability are recorded in the decision tree, as discussed in Appendix F, whereas the results matrix should be annotated with a discussion of the key factors that contribute to the technical and market risk.
The benefits estimated by the panel represent an expected value benefit. This is calculated by adjusting the benefits that DOE assumes will be accrued if the program goal is met for the technical and market risks identified by the panel. Figure F-4 provides expected benefits for three scenarios to reflect a bounding of benefits for three possible future states.
The panel’s opinion and quantification and discussion of the risks are provided in the third section of the template in Figure F-4. The information required to be included in this section is listed in the template itself. The panel must complete the matrix using sufficient clarity and transparency to allow readers and potential users of the matrix to make informed and reasoned decisions about future goals, funding levels, and expected benefits. The template should be used by all panels to ensure consistency in reporting, use, and interpretation.