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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C Statement of Task." National Research Council. 2007. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase Two). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11806.
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C
Statement of Task

Two general activities will be the focus of Phase 2: refining the methodology developed in Phase 1, and applying it to additional R&D projects. The specific activities that the committee will undertake in Phase 2 depend to some extent on the progress that the Committee on Prospective Benefits of DOE’s Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy R&D ProgramsPhase 1 makes on a prospective benefits methodology and its application to different programs in the energy efficiency (EE) and fossil energy (FE) programs. It is proposed that the Phase 2 will include the following.

  1. Based on its experience with applying the methodology developed in Phase 1, the committee appointed in Phase 2 may modify the methodology, as appropriate, before it applies it to evaluating the prospective benefits of additional individual programs/projects in EE and FE. It is expected that more attention will be devoted to improving the methodology for estimating environmental benefits (e.g., from reduced emissions), estimating national security benefits (e.g., from reduced oil imports), and consider the extent to which an options evaluation can be used to represent prospective benefits under a variety of representative scenarios. In addition, the committee may examine how project-by-project benefit evaluations can be used for budget decisions. Other issues may be defined during Phase 1 that should be addressed in Phase 2, resources permitting.

  2. After the Phase 1 report is available, the Phase 2 committee will review comments from DOE and others on the methodology developed and its application. Based on these inputs, the committee will consider any changes to its methodology, as necessary, for the Phase 2 effort. The committee may prepare a letter report detailing changes to the methodology as a result of these reviews and possible work completed under task 1 above.

  3. As in Phase 1, the work of the Phase 2 committee will be supported by several panels that will be separately appointed by the NRC to apply the methodology developed in Phase 1 and evaluate the prospective benefits of individual EE and FE programs/projects. Since a methodology will have been developed in Phase 1, it is expected that a greater number of panels can be formed in Phase 2 and more time and resources can be devoted to evaluating prospective benefits. It is proposed that approximately 6 panels will be appointed by the NRC.

  4. The panels and committee will act as a quality control function to review how DOE is evaluating prospective benefits in the various EE and FE programs/projects to ensure that a credible, consistent and transparent approach is being undertaken.

  5. The panels will write reports on the benefit evaluations of the programs/projects examined and deliver these reports to the committee. The committee will write a final report that incorporates the panel reports.

It is the intent of the Congress that the NRC will conduct a number of evaluations of prospective benefits on an annual basis with different programs evaluated each year.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C Statement of Task." National Research Council. 2007. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase Two). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11806.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C Statement of Task." National Research Council. 2007. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase Two). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11806.
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Page 75
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C Statement of Task." National Research Council. 2007. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase Two). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11806.
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Since its inception in 1977 from an amalgam of federal authorities, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has administered numerous programs aimed at developing applied energy technologies. In recent years, federal oversight of public expenditures has emphasized the integration of performance and budgeting. Notably, the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) was passed in 1993 in response to questions about the value and effectiveness of federal programs. GPRA and other mandates have led agencies to develop indicators of program performance and program outcomes. The development of indicators has been watched with keen interest by Congress, which has requested of the National Research Council (NRC) a series of reports using quantitative indicators to evaluate the effectiveness of applied energy research and development (R&D).

The first such report took a retrospective view of the first 3 years of DOE R&D programs on fossil energy and energy efficiency. The report found that DOE-sponsored research had netted large commercial successes, such as advanced refrigerator compressors, electronic lighting ballasts, and emission control technology for flue gas desulfurization. However, some programs were judged to be costly failures in which large R&D expenditures did not result in a commercial energy technology. A follow-up NRC committee was assigned the task of adapting the methodology to the assessment of the future payoff of continuing programs.

Evaluating the outcome of R&D expenditures requires an analysis of program costs and benefits. Doing so is not a trivial matter. First, the analysis of costs and benefits must reflect the full range of public benefits that are envisioned, accounting for environmental and energy security impacts as well as economic effects. Second, the analysis must consider how likely the research is to succeed and how valuable the research will be if successful. Finally, the analysis must consider what might happen if the government did not support the project: Would some non-DOE entity undertake it or an equivalent activity that would produce some or all of the benefits of government involvement?

This second report continues to investigate the development and use of R&D outcome indicators and applies the benefits evaluation methodology to six DOE R&D activities. It provides further definition for the development of indicators for environmental and security benefits and refines the evaluation process based on its experience with the six DOE R&D case studies.

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