EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE

NATIONAL IMPERATIVES FOR THE NEXT DECADE AND BEYOND

Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future

Space Studies Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE NATIONAL IMPERATIVES FOR THE NEXT DECADE AND BEYOND Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract NASW-01001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Contract DG133R04C00009 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Contract DG133F-04-CQ-0009 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Geological Survey. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13:978–0-309–10387–9 International Standard Book Number-10:0–309–10387–8 Library of Congress Control Number: 2007936350 Cover: A digitally enhanced image created from data acquired by a Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) operated by NOAA and built by NASA; by NASA’s Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite; and by Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments carried aboard NOAA’s Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES). These data were draped across a digital elevation model of Earth’s topography from the U.S. Geological Survey. Heavy vegetation is shown as green and sparse vegetation as yellow. The heights of mountains and depths of valleys have been exaggerated so that vertical relief is visible. The presence of the Moon in this image is an artistic addition; the lunar image was collected by GOES in September 1994 and has been magnified to about twice its relative size. The prominent storm raging off the west coast of North America is Hurricane Linda (1997). This image was created by Reto Stockli with the help of Alan Nelson, under the leadership of Fritz Hasler. A detailed description of how the image was generated is available at http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/rsd/bluemarble/bluemarble2000.html. Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624–6242 or (202) 334–3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J.Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M.Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V.Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J.Cicerone and Dr. Charles M.Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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OTHER REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD An Astrobiology Strategy for the Exploration of Mars (SSB with the Board on Life Sciences [BLS], 2007) Building a Better NASA Workforce: Meeting the Workforce Needs for the National Vision for Space Exploration (SSB with the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2007) Decadal Science Strategy Surveys: Report of a Workshop (2007) Exploring Organic Environments in the Solar System (SSB with the Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology, 2007) A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Astrophysics Program (SSB with the Board on Physics and Astronomy, 2007) Portals to the Universe: The NASA Astronomy Science Centers (2007) The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon (2007) An Assessment of Balance in NASA’s Science Programs (2006) Assessment of NASA’s Mars Architecture 2007–2016 (2006) Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Venus Missions: Letter Report (2006) Distributed Arrays of Small Instruments for Solar-Terrestrial Research: Report of a Workshop (2006) Issues Affecting the Future of the U.S. Space Science and Engineering Workforce (SSB with ASEB, 2006) Review of NASA’s 2006 Draft Science Plan: Letter Report (2006) The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon—Interim Report (2006) Space Radiation Hazards and the Vision for Space Exploration (2006) The Astrophysical Context of Life (SSB with BLS, 2005) Earth Science and Applications from Space: Urgent Needs and Opportunities to Serve the Nation (2005) Extending the Effective Lifetimes of Earth Observing Research Missions (2005) Preventing the Forward Contamination of Mars (2005) Principal-Investigator-Led Missions in the Space Sciences (2005) Priorities in Space Science Enabled by Nuclear Power and Propulsion (SSB with ASEB, 2005) Review of Goals and Plans for NASA’s Space and Earth Sciences (2005) Review of NASA Plans for the International Space Station (2005) Science in NASA’s Vision for Space Exploration (2005) Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report (SSB with ASEB, 2004) Exploration of the Outer Heliosphere and the Local Interstellar Medium: A Workshop Report (2004) Issues and Opportunities Regarding the U.S. Space Program: A Summary Report of a Workshop on National Space Policy (SSB with ASEB, 2004) Plasma Physics of the Local Cosmos (2004) Review of Science Requirements for the Terrestrial Planet Finder: Letter Report (2004) Solar and Space Physics and Its Role in Space Exploration (2004) Understanding the Sun and Solar System Plasmas: Future Directions in Solar and Space Physics (2004) Utilization of Operational Environmental Satellite Data: Ensuring Readiness for 2010 and Beyond (SSB with ASEB and the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, 2004) Limited copies of these reports are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334–3477/ssb@nas.edu www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html NOTE: Listed according to year of approval for release, which in some cases precedes the year of publication.

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COMMITTEE ON EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE: A COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT AND STRATEGY FOR THE FUTURE RICHARD A.ANTHES, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Co-chair BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire, Co-chair JAMES G.ANDERSON, Harvard University SUSAN K.AVERY, University of Colorado, Boulder ERIC J.BARRON, University of Texas, Austin OTIS B.BROWN, JR.,1 University of Miami SUSAN L.CUTTER, University of South Carolina RUTH DeFRIES, University of Maryland WILLIAM B.GAIL, Microsoft Virtual Earth BRADFORD H.HAGER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ANTHONY HOLLINGSWORTH,2 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ANTHONY C.JANETOS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland KATHRYN A.KELLY, University of Washington NEAL F.LANE, Rice University DENNIS P.LETTENMAIER, University of Washington BRUCE D.MARCUS, TRW, Inc. (retired) WARREN M.WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research MARK L.WILSON, University of Michigan MARY LOU ZOBACK, Risk Management Solutions Consultant STACEY W.BOLAND, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Staff ARTHUR CHARO, Study Director, Space Studies Board THERESA M.FISHER, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board NORMAN GROSSBLATT, Senior Editor CATHERINE A.GRUBER, Assistant Editor, Space Studies Board EMILY McNEIL, Research Assistant, Space Studies Board 1 Term ended January 2006. 2 The committee notes with deep regret Anthony Hollingsworth’s death on July 29, 2007.

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PANEL ON EARTH SCIENCE APPLICATIONS AND SOCIETAL BENEFITS ANTHONY C.JANETOS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, Chair ROBERTA BALSTAD, Columbia University, Vice Chair JAY APT, Carnegie Mellon University PHILIP E.ARDANUY, Raytheon Information Solutions RANDALL FRIEDL, Jet Propulsion Laboratory MICHAEL F.GOODCHILD, University of California, Santa Barbara MOLLY K.MACAULEY, Resources for the Future, Inc. GORDON McBEAN, University of Western Ontario DAVID L.SKOLE, Michigan State University LEIGH WELLING, Crown of the Continent Learning Center THOMAS J.WILBANKS, Oak Ridge National Laboratory GARY W.YOHE, Wesleyan University ARTHUR CHARO, Study Director, Space Studies Board THERESA M.FISHER, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board PANEL ON LAND-USE CHANGE, ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS, AND BIODIVERSITY RUTH S.DeFRIES, University of Maryland, Chair OTIS B.BROWN, JR., University of Miami, Vice Chair MARK R.ABBOTT, Oregon State University CHRISTOPHER B.FIELD, Carnegie Institution of Washington INEZ Y.FUNG, University of California, Berkeley MARC LEVY, Center for International Earth Sciences Information Network JAMES J.McCARTHY, Harvard University JERRY M.MELILLO, Marine Biological Laboratory DAVID S.SCHIMEL, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ARTHUR CHARO, Study Director, Space Studies Board DAN WALKER, Senior Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board SANDRA J.GRAHAM, Senior Program Officer, Space Studies Board (from August 2006) CARMELA J.CHAMBERLAIN, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board

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PANEL ON WEATHER SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS SUSAN K.AVERY, University of Colorado, Boulder, Chair THOMAS H.VONDER HAAR, Colorado State University, Vice Chair EDWARD V.BROWELL, NASA Langley Research Center WILLIAM B.CADE III, Air Force Weather Agency BRADLEY R.COLMAN, National Weather Service EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park CHRISTOPHER RUF, University of Michigan CARL F.SCHUELER, Raytheon Company JEREMY USHER, Weathernews Americas, Inc. CHRISTOPHER S.VELDEN, University of Wisconsin-Madison ROBERT A.WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution ARTHUR CHARO, Study Director, Space Studies Board CURTIS MARSHALL, Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (from August 2006) THERESA M.FISHER, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board PANEL ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ERIC J.BARRON, University of Texas, Austin, Chair JOYCE E.PENNER, University of Michigan, Vice Chair GREGORY CARBONE, University of South Carolina JAMES A.COAKLEY, JR., Oregon State University SARAH T.GILLE, Scripps Institution of Oceanography KENNETH C.JEZEK, Ohio State University JUDITH L.LEAN, Naval Research Laboratory GUDRUN MAGNUSDOTTIR, University of California, Irvine PAOLA MALANOTTE-RIZZOLI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University CLAIRE L.PARKINSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center MICHAEL J.PRATHER, University of California, Irvine MARK R.SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center BYRON D.TAPLEY, University of Texas, Austin ARTHUR CHARO, Study Director, Space Studies Board CELESTE NAYLOR, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board

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PANEL ON WATER RESOURCES AND THE GLOBAL HYDROLOGIC CYCLE DENNIS P.LETTENMAIER, University of Washington, Chair ANNE W.NOLIN, Oregon State University, Vice Chair WILFRIED H.BRUTSAERT, Cornell University ANNY CAZENAVE, Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales CAROL ANNE CLAYSON, Florida State University JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara DARA ENTEKHABI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RICHARD FORSTER, University of Utah CHARLES D.D.HOWARD, Independent Consultant CHRISTIAN D.KUMMEROW, Colorado State University STEVEN W.RUNNING, University of Montana CHARLES J.VOROSMARTY, University of New Hampshire ARTHUR CHARO, Study Director, Space Studies Board WILLIAM LOGAN, Senior Staff Officer, Water Science and Technology Board THERESA M.FISHER, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board PANEL ON HUMAN HEALTH AND SECURITY MARK L.WILSON, University of Michigan, Chair RITA R.COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park, Vice Chair DANIEL G.BROWN, University of Michigan WALTER F.DABBERDT, Vaisala, Inc. WILLIAM F.DAVENHALL, ESRI JOHN R.DELANEY, University of Washington GREGORY GLASS, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health DANIEL J.JACOB, Harvard University JAMES H.MAGUIRE, University of Maryland School of Medicine PAUL M.MAUGHAN, MyoSite Diagnostics, Inc. JOAN B.ROSE, Michigan State University RONALD B.SMITH, Yale University PATRICIA ANN TESTER, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ARTHUR CHARO, Study Director, Space Studies Board RAYMOND WASSEL, Senior Program Officer, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology THERESA M.FISHER, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board

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PANEL ON SOLID-EARTH HAZARDS, NATURAL RESOURCES, AND DYNAMICS BRADFORD H.HAGER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair SUSAN L.BRANTLEY, Pennsylvania State University, Vice Chair JEREMY BLOXHAM, Harvard University RICHARD K.EISNER, State of California, Governor’s Office of Emergency Services ALEXANDER F.H.GOETZ, University of Colorado, Boulder CHRISTIAN J.JOHANNSEN, Purdue University JAMES W.KIRCHNER, University of California, Berkeley WILLIAM I.ROSE, Michigan Technological University HARESH C.SHAH, Stanford University DIRK SMIT, Shell Exploration and Production Technology Company HOWARD A.ZEBKER, Stanford University MARIA T.ZUBER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ARTHUR CHARO, Study Director, Space Studies Board DAN WALKER, Senior Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board SANDRA J.GRAHAM, Senior Program Officer, Space Studies Board (from August 2006) CARMELA J.CHAMBERLAIN, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD LENNARD A.FISK, University of Michigan, Chair A.THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired), Vice Chair SPIRO K.ANTIOCHOS, Naval Research Laboratory DANIEL N.BAKER, University of Colorado, Boulder STEVEN J.BATTEL, Battel Engineering CHARLES L.BENNETT, Johns Hopkins University ELIZABETH R.CANTWELL, Los Alamos National Laboratory JACK D.FELLOWS, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research FIONA A.HARRISON, California Institute of Technology TAMARA E.JERNIGAN, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory KLAUS KEIL, University of Hawaii MOLLY MACAULEY, Resources for the Future BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire KENNETH H.NEALSON, University of Southern California JAMES PAWELCZYK, Pennsylvania State University SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of California, Irvine RICHARD H.TRULY, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (retired) JOAN VERNIKOS, Thirdage LLC JOSEPH F.VEVERKA, Cornell University WARREN M.WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research CHARLES E.WOODWARD, University of Minnesota GARY P.ZANK, University of California, Riverside MARCIA S.SMITH, Director

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Preface Natural and human-induced changes in Earth’s interior, land surface, biosphere, atmosphere, and oceans affect all aspects of life. Understanding these changes and their implications requires a foundation of integrated observations—taken from land-, sea-, air-, and space-based platforms—on which to build credible information products, forecast models, and other tools for making informed decisions. In 2004, the National Research Council (NRC) received requests from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Office of Earth Science, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Geography Division to conduct a decadal survey to generate consensus recommendations from the Earth and environmental science and applications communities regarding a systems approach to space-based and ancillary observations1 that encompasses the research programs of NASA; the related operational programs of NOAA; and associated programs such as Landsat, a joint initiative of USGS and NASA. The National Research Council responded to this request by approving a study and appointing the Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future to conduct it. The committee oversaw and synthesized the work of seven thematically organized study panels. In carrying out the study, participants endeavored to set a new agenda for Earth observations from space in which ensuring practical benefits for humankind plays a role equal to that of acquiring new knowledge about Earth. Those benefits range from information for short-term needs, such as weather forecasts and warnings for protection of life and property, to the longer-term scientific understanding necessary for future applications that will benefit society in ways still to be realized. As detailed in the study statement of task (Appendix A), the NRC was asked to: 1 Unless stated otherwise, the term “space-based observations” of Earth refers to remote-sensing measurements enabled by instruments placed on robotic spacecraft.

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site. As noted above, members of the community were invited to submit ideas to advance Earth science and applications from space. Briefings were also given on many occasions to various NRC committees. Finally, numerous members of the community communicated directly with survey participants. Community input was particularly helpful in the final stages of the study to ensure that essential observational needs of disciplines would be met by the interdisciplinary mission concepts of the panels. The final set of program priorities and other recommendations was established by consensus at a committee meeting at Irvine, California, in May 2006, and in later exchanges by telephone and e-mail. The committee’s final set of priorities and recommendations does not include all the recommendations made by the study panels, although it is consistent with them. As described in Chapter 2, the panels used a common template in establishing priority lists of proposed missions. Because execution of even a small portion of the missions on the panels’ lists was not considered affordable, the panels worked with committee members to develop synergistic mission “roll-ups” that would maximize science and application returns across the panels while keeping within a more affordable budget. Frequently, the recommended missions represented a compromise in an instrument or spacecraft characteristic (including orbit) between what two or more panels would have recommended individually without a budget constraint. All the recommendations offered by the panels merit support—indeed, the panels’ short lists of recommendations were developed from the more than 100 RFI responses and other submissions—but the committee took as its charge the provision of a strategy for a strong, balanced national program in Earth science for the next decade that could be carried out with what are thought to be realistic resources. Difficult choices were inevitable, but the recommendations presented in this report reflect the committee’s best judgment, informed by the work of the panels and discussions with the scientific community, about which programs are most important for developing and sustaining the Earth science enterprise. The process that resulted in the final set of recommendations and the usual procedures imposed by the NRC guard against the potential for anyone to affect report recommendations unduly. The vetting process for nominees to an NRC committee ensured that all survey members declared any conflicts of interest. The size and expertise of the committee served as a further check on individual biases or conflicts in that each member of the committee had an equal vote. The consensus-building process by which each panel produced short priority lists of missions and then a final set of roll-up missions ensured further vetting of the merits of each candidate mission by the entire committee. The committee, whose collective expertise spanned the relevant disciplines for this survey, then had the final say in reviewing and approving the overall survey recommendations. On June 13, 2006, after a full House Committee on Science hearing on the recertification of NPOESS, Representative Sherwood Boehlert, chair of the House committee, sent a letter to Michael Griffin, administrator of NASA, requesting that the NRC decadal survey undertake additional tasks to “analyze the impact of the loss of the climate sensors, to prioritize the need for those lost sensors, and to review the best options for flying these sensors in the future.” NASA later sent the NRC a request to do the following: Analyze the impact of the changes to the NPOESS program, which were announced in June 2006…. The analysis should include discussions related to continuity of existing measurements and development of new research and operational capabilities. Develop a strategy to mitigate the impact of the changes described [in the item above]…. Included in this assessment will be an analysis of the capabilities of the portfolio of missions recommended in the decadal strategy to recover these capabilities, especially those related to research on Earth’s climate…. The committee should provide a preliminary assessment of the risks, benefits, and costs of placing—either on NPOESS or on other platforms—alternative sensors to those planned for NPOESS. Finally, the committee will consider the advantages and disadvantages of relying on capabilities that may be developed by our European and Japanese partners.

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The present report provides a preliminary analysis of the first item (see, in particular, Chapter 9, “Climate Variability and Change”; also see Tables 2.4 and 2.5). Most of the tasks in the second item will be performed by a new panel appointed in early 2007 that will deliver a short report of a workshop in fall 2007 and a final report in 2008 (Tables 2.4 and 2.5 summarize the impact of NPOESS instrument cancellations and descopes). Finally, the survey co-chairs and the study director wish to acknowledge the contributions to this report from Randy Friedl, a member of the Panel on Earth Science Applications and Societal Needs, who was unsparing of his time and offered wise counsel at several critical stages in the development of this report. He and his Jet Propulsion Laboratory colleague Stacey W.Boland provided invaluable assistance in synthesizing the work of the survey study panels, obtaining budget information, creating graphs, and critiquing large portions of Part I of this report.

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRCs) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Antonio J.Busalacchi, Jr., University of Maryland, Dudley B.Chelton, Jr., Oregon State University, John R.Christy, University of Alabama, Timothy L.Killeen, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Uriel D.Kitron, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, David M.Legler, U.S. CLIVAR Office, Pamela A.Matson, Stanford University, M. Patrick McCormick, Hampton University, John H.McElroy, University of Texas at Arlington, R.Keith Raney, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, David T.Sandwell, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, William J.Shuttleworth, University of Arizona, Norman H.Sleep, Stanford University, Sean C.Solomon, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Carl I.Wunsch, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, James A.Yoder, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and A.Thomas Young, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired).

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Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Marcia McNutt, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, and Richard Goody, Harvard University (emeritus professor). Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 PART I: AN INTEGRATED STRATEGY FOR EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE     1   EARTH SCIENCE: SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY AND SOCIETAL APPLICATIONS   19 2   THE NEXT DECADE OF EARTH OBSERVATIONS FROM SPACE   27 3   FROM SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS TO EARTH INFORMATION   61 PART II: MISSION SUMMARIES     4   SUMMARIES OF RECOMMENDED MISSIONS   83 PART III: REPORTS FROM THE DECADAL SURVEY PANELS     5   EARTH SCIENCE APPLICATIONS AND SOCIETAL BENEFITS   143 6   HUMAN HEALTH AND SECURITY   152 7   LAND-USE CHANGE, ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS, AND BIODIVERSITY   190

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8   SOLID-EARTH HAZARDS, NATURAL RESOURCES, AND DYNAMICS   217 9   CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE   257 10   WEATHER SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS   304 11   WATER RESOURCES AND THE GLOBAL HYDROLOGIC CYCLE   338 APPENDIXES     A   Statement of Task   383 B   Biographical Information for Committee Members and Staff   385 C   Blending Earth Observations and Models—The Successful Paradigm of Weather Forecasting   392 D   Request for Information from Community   410 E   List of Responses to Request for Information   413 F   Acronyms and Abbreviations   423

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ANTHONY HOLLINGSWORTH It was with great sadness that the committee and the panels of the decadal survey learned of the death of Anthony Hollingsworth on July 29, 2007. Tony, a long-time scientist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, was a giant among his peers in numerical weather prediction and analysis, data assimilation, and the use of weather forecasts to meet broad societal needs. Tony was dedicated to the use of satellite observations of Earth to improve weather predictions for the benefit of society. He worked tirelessly in the scientific and political trenches of the world, always sharing his knowledge and valuable ideas with others in his gentle, unselfish way. He inspired people of all ages throughout his long and productive career, which still ended all too soon. He was a close friend of all who were fortunate enough to know him well. Tony was one of the leaders of the decadal survey, arguing for the importance of diverse observations from satellites and other platforms to produce the most accurate and consistent analysis of the Earth system possible for initializing prediction models of the atmosphere, oceans, and land. He was the primary author of Appendix C, “Blending Earth Observations and Models—The Successful Paradigm of Weather Forecasting,” which tells the story of one of the greatest success stories of Earth science. Tony contributed greatly, as an individual and as a member of many international teams, to this success story. We will miss him greatly. Richard A.Anthes and Berrien Moore III, Co-chairs, on behalf of the Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space and the seven study panels

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EARTH SCIENCEAND APPLICATIONSFROM SPACE NATIONAL IMPERATIVES FOR THE NEXT DECADE AND BEYOND

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