Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. HSHQDC-06-C-00046 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Homeland Security. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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COMMITTEE ON METHODOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENTS TO THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY’S BIOLOGICAL AGENT RISK ANALYSIS
GREGORY S. PARNELL,
U.S. Military Academy,
Chair
DAVID BANKS,
Duke University
LUCIANA BORIO,
University of Pittsburgh
GERALD BROWN,
Naval Postgraduate School
L. ANTHONY COX, JR.,
Cox Associates
JOHN GANNON,
BAE Systems
ERIC HARVILL,
Pennsylvania State University
HOWARD KUNREUTHER,
University of Pennsylvania
STEPHEN MORSE,
Columbia University
MARGUERITE PAPPAIOANOU,
University of Minnesota
STEPHEN POLLOCK,
University of Michigan
NOZER SINGPURWALLA,
George Washington University
ALYSON WILSON,
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Staff
SCOTT WEIDMAN, Director,
Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications
NEAL GLASSMAN, Senior Staff Officer,
Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications
KERRY BRENNER, Senior Staff Officer,
Board on Life Sciences
BARBARA WRIGHT, Administrative Assistant
BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
C. DAVID LEVERMORE,
University of Maryland,
Chair
MASSOUD AMIN,
University of Minnesota
MARSHA J. BERGER,
New York University
PHILIP A. BERNSTEIN,
Microsoft Corporation
PATRICIA F. BRENNAN,
University of Wisconsin-Madison
PATRICK L. BROCKETT,
University of Texas at Austin
DEBRA ELKINS,
General Motors Corporation
LAWRENCE CRAIG EVANS,
University of California at Berkeley
JOHN F. GEWEKE,
University of Iowa
DAVID HENDRICKS,
UBS AG
JOHN E. HOPCROFT,
Cornell University
CHARLES M. LUCAS,
AIG (retired)
CHARLES MANSKI,
Northwestern University
JOYCE R. McLAUGHLIN,
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
JILL PORTER MESIROV,
Broad Institute
ANDREW M. ODLYZKO,
University of Minnesota
JOHN RICE,
University of California at Berkeley
STEPHEN M. ROBINSON,
University of Wisconsin-Madison
GEORGE SUGIHARA,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego
EDWARD J. WEGMAN,
George Mason University
LAI-SANG YOUNG,
New York University
Staff
SCOTT WEIDMAN, Director
NEAL GLASSMAN, Senior Staff Officer
BARBARA WRIGHT, Administrative Assistant
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Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
John Bailar III, University of Chicago,
Gerald Dinneen, Lexington, Massachusetts,
Randall Larsen, The Institute for Homeland Security,
Stephen Robinson, University of Wisconsin,
Harvey Rubin, University of Pennsylvania, and
Lawrence Wein, Stanford University.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Frank Stillinger, Princeton University. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
The committee also acknowledges the valuable contribution of the following individuals, who provided input at the meeting on which this interim report is based:
James Petro, White House Homeland Security Council,
Adam Rose, Pennsylvania State University,
Detlof von Winterfeldt, University of Southern California, and
Staff of the Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio.
