Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis

Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis

Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. HSHQDC-06-C-00046 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Homeland Security. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis COMMITTEE ON METHODOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENTS TO THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY’S BIOLOGICAL AGENT RISK ANALYSIS GREGORY S. PARNELL, U.S. Military Academy, Chair DAVID BANKS, Duke University LUCIANA BORIO, University of Pittsburgh GERALD BROWN, Naval Postgraduate School L. ANTHONY COX, JR., Cox Associates JOHN GANNON, BAE Systems ERIC HARVILL, Pennsylvania State University HOWARD KUNREUTHER, University of Pennsylvania STEPHEN MORSE, Columbia University MARGUERITE PAPPAIOANOU, University of Minnesota STEPHEN POLLOCK, University of Michigan NOZER SINGPURWALLA, George Washington University ALYSON WILSON, Los Alamos National Laboratory Staff SCOTT WEIDMAN, Director, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications NEAL GLASSMAN, Senior Staff Officer, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications KERRY BRENNER, Senior Staff Officer, Board on Life Sciences BARBARA WRIGHT, Administrative Assistant

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Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS C. DAVID LEVERMORE, University of Maryland, Chair MASSOUD AMIN, University of Minnesota MARSHA J. BERGER, New York University PHILIP A. BERNSTEIN, Microsoft Corporation PATRICIA F. BRENNAN, University of Wisconsin-Madison PATRICK L. BROCKETT, University of Texas at Austin DEBRA ELKINS, General Motors Corporation LAWRENCE CRAIG EVANS, University of California at Berkeley JOHN F. GEWEKE, University of Iowa DAVID HENDRICKS, UBS AG JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University CHARLES M. LUCAS, AIG (retired) CHARLES MANSKI, Northwestern University JOYCE R. McLAUGHLIN, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute JILL PORTER MESIROV, Broad Institute ANDREW M. ODLYZKO, University of Minnesota JOHN RICE, University of California at Berkeley STEPHEN M. ROBINSON, University of Wisconsin-Madison GEORGE SUGIHARA, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego EDWARD J. WEGMAN, George Mason University LAI-SANG YOUNG, New York University Staff SCOTT WEIDMAN, Director NEAL GLASSMAN, Senior Staff Officer BARBARA WRIGHT, Administrative Assistant For more information on BMSA, see its Web site at http://www7.nationalacademies.org/bms/, write to BMSA, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001, call (202) 334-2421, or send e-mail to bms@nas.edu.

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Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: John Bailar III, University of Chicago, Gerald Dinneen, Lexington, Massachusetts, Randall Larsen, The Institute for Homeland Security, Stephen Robinson, University of Wisconsin, Harvey Rubin, University of Pennsylvania, and Lawrence Wein, Stanford University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Frank Stillinger, Princeton University. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. The committee also acknowledges the valuable contribution of the following individuals, who provided input at the meeting on which this interim report is based: James Petro, White House Homeland Security Council, Adam Rose, Pennsylvania State University, Detlof von Winterfeldt, University of Southern California, and Staff of the Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio.

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