Appendix G
Sensitivity Analysis

Tables G-1, G-2, and G-3 provide the relevant columns of Tables 5-7 and 5-8 for three levels of fuel savings: 100 percent, 90 percent, and 50 percent of the estimate. All these are for a burdened fuel cost of $2.50/gal. Tables G-1, G-2, and G-3 are for annual increases in fuel cost of 3 percent, 6 percent, and 9 percent, respectively.

Tables G-4, G-5, G-6, and G-7 give the relevant sensitivities in the estimates corresponding to Table 5-9 for total burdened per gallon costs of $5, $10, $20, and $40, respectively. The direct fuel cost component of $2.50 increases at 6 percent per year, and the remainder (overhead component) increases at 3 percent per year, as stated in Chapter 5 text.



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page 169
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft Appendix G Sensitivity Analysis Tables G-1, G-2, and G-3 provide the relevant columns of Tables 5-7 and 5-8 for three levels of fuel savings: 100 percent, 90 percent, and 50 percent of the estimate. All these are for a burdened fuel cost of $2.50/gal. Tables G-1, G-2, and G-3 are for annual increases in fuel cost of 3 percent, 6 percent, and 9 percent, respectively. Tables G-4, G-5, G-6, and G-7 give the relevant sensitivities in the estimates corresponding to Table 5-9 for total burdened per gallon costs of $5, $10, $20, and $40, respectively. The direct fuel cost component of $2.50 increases at 6 percent per year, and the remainder (overhead component) increases at 3 percent per year, as stated in Chapter 5 text.

OCR for page 169
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft TABLE G-1 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Tables 5-7 and 5-8 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, with Fuel Cost Increasing at 3%/yra,b Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c 100% 90% 50% 100% 90% 50% Re-engining             C-130H/AE 2100d 17.7 19.2 32.3 203 59 −515 C-130H/PW150d 19.5 21.3 36.5 37 −91 −604 B-1/F119/5.0 >60 >60 >60 −1,029 −1,055 −1,161 E-3/CFM56-2B-1 22.2 23.3 29.0 −34 −47 −100 E-3/JT8D-219 36.3 37.8 45.8 −157 −164 −192 E-3/CFM56-7B22 16.5 17.3 21.9 78 57 −30 E-8/CFM56-2B-1e – – – – – – E-8/JT8D-219e – – – – – – E-8/CFM56-7B22e – – – – – – KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1 45.1 48.2 >60 −532 −555 −647 KC-135D/E: JT8D-219 >60 >60 >60 −769 −784 −845 KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22 31.6 33.4 44.3 −378 −411 −543 B-52/F117-PW-100 [4] 20.6 22.0 31.3 −27 −83 −309 B-52/CF34-10A [8] 28.4 29.8 37.2 −361 −397 −543 B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4] 16.1 17.0 22.0 224 163 −81 C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f – – – – – – Engine modification             KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod) >60 >60 >60 −1,318 −1,344 −1,446 C-130H: T56-A427 Modd 17.8 19.3 31.0 107 31 −227 C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd 26.1 28.4 47.7 −184 −231 −417 B-1/F101 Mod 8.0 8.2 9.1 470 439 313 KC-10/CF6-50 Mod 3.8 3.8 3.9 325 324 316 NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005. aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report. bFuel cost is $2.50 per gallon. cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point. dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions. eE-8 re-engining already ongoing. fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.

OCR for page 169
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft TABLE G-2 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Tables 5-7 and 5-8 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, with Fuel Cost Increasing at 6%/yra,b Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c 100% 90% 50% 100% 90% 50% Re-engining             C-130H/AE 2100d 14.4 15.4 22.6 817 612 −208 C-130H/PW150d 15.5 16.6 24.6 585 402 −330 B-1/F119/5.0 51.1 55.2 >60 −922 −959 −1,107 E-3/CFM56-2B-1 19.0 19.9 25.1 20 1 −73 E-3/JT8D-219 29.4 30.7 37.9 −128 −138 −178 E-3/CFM56-7B22 14.5 15.2 19.3 165 135 14 E-8/CFM56-2B-1e – – – – – − E-8/JT8D-219e – – – – – – E-8/CFM56-7B22e – – – – – – KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1 32.3 34.1 45.3 −438 −471 −600 KC-135D/E: JT8D-219 47.9 50.7 >60 −707 −728 −814 KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22 24.9 26.2 34.3 −243 −289 −475 B-52/F117-PW-100 [4] 17.0 18.0 24.6 206 126 −193 B-52/CF34-10A [8] 23.5 24.6 31.0 −211 −263 −468 B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4] 14.1 14.8 19.1 475 389 45 C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f – – – – – – Engine modification             KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod) 56.6 >60 >60 −1,213 −1,249 −1,394 C-130H: T56-A427 Modd 14.6 15.5 22.5 431 323 −110 C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd 19.7 21.1 30.6 15 −51 −318 B-1/F101 Mod 7.7 7.9 8.8 610 565 383 KC-10/CF6-50 Mod 3.8 3.8 3.9 333 330 320 NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005. aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report. bFuel cost is $2.50 per gallon. cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point. dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions. eE-8 re-engining already ongoing. fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.

OCR for page 169
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft TABLE G-3 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Tables 5-7 and 5-8 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, with Fuel Cost Increasing at 9%/yra,b Candidate Aircraft/EngineCombination Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c 100% 90% 50% 100% 90% 50% Re-engining             C-130H/AE 2100d 12.4 13.1 18.1 1,715 1,420 240 C-130H/PW150d 13.2 14.0 19.4 1,387 1,124 71 B-1/F119/5.0 33.5 35.4 47.0 −767 −820 −1,030 E-3/CFM56-2B-1 16.6 17.4 21.8 98 72 −34 E-3/JT8D-219 24.5 25.5 31.4 −87 −101 −157 E-3/CFM56-7B22 13.0 13.6 17.2 291 248 77 E-8/CFM56-2B-1e – – – – – – E-8/JT8D-219e – – – – – – E-8/CFM56-7B22e – – – – – – KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1 25.4 26.7 34.2 −301 −347 −531 KC-135D/E: JT8D-219 34.3 35.9 45.5 −616 −647 −768 KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22 20.6 21.6 27.7 −46 −112 −376 B-52/F117-PW-100 [4] 14.6 15.3 20.4 545 431 −23 B-52/CF34-10A [8] 19.9 20.8 26.1 7 −66 −359 B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4] 12.6 13.2 16.8 841 718 228 C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f – – – – – – Engine modification             KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod) 36.6 38.5 50.2 −1,060 −1,112 −1,317 C-130H: T56-A427 Modd 12.6 13.3 18.2 905 750 127 C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd 16.3 17.2 23.5 307 211 −172 B-1/F101 Mod 7.4 7.6 8.5 815 749 486 KC-10/CF6-50 Mod 3.8 3.8 3.9 343 339 325 NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005. aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report. bFuel cost is $2.50 per gallon. cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point. dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions. eE-8 re-engining already ongoing. fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.

OCR for page 169
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft TABLE G-4 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Table 5-9 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, at a Burdened Fuel Cost of $5 per Gallona,b Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c 100% 90% 50% 100% 90% 50% Re-engining             C-130H/AE 2100d 10.1 10.8 15.7 2,254 1,905 510 C-130H/PW150d 10.9 11.6 17.1 1,869 1,557 311 B-1/F119/5.0 36.6 40.1 >60 −658 −721 −975 E-3/CFM56-2B-1 14.5 15.3 20.4 154 122 −7 E-3/JT8D-219 23.3 24.6 32.1 −58 −75 −142 E-3/CFM56-7B22 10.9 11.6 15.4 380 329 121 E-8/CFM56-2B-1e – – – – – – E-8/JT8D-219e – – – – – – E-8/CFM56-7B22e – – – – – – KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1 24.5 26.1 36.6 −210 −265 −485 KC-135D/E: JT8D-219 37.2 39.9 57.3 −556 −592 −738 KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22 18.7 19.9 27.4 86 6 −311 B-52/F117-PW-100 [4] 12.2 13.0 18.4 771 635 90 B-52/CF34-10A [8] 18.1 19.1 25.5 153 65 −286 B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4] 10.6 11.1 15.0 1,085 938 350 C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f – – – – – – Engine modification             KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod) 42.3 46.0 >60 −957 −1,019 −1,266 C-130H: T56-A427 Modd 10.4 11.0 15.9 1,188 1,004 269 C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd 13.9 14.8 22.0 481 368 −85 B-1/F101 Mod 6.6 6.9 7.9 924 847 540 KC-10/CF6-50 Mod 3.6 3.6 3.8 351 346 329 NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005. aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report. bThe direct fuel cost component of $5.00 increases at 6 percent per year, and the overhead increases at 3 percent per year. cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point. dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions. eE-8 re-engining already ongoing. fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.

OCR for page 169
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft TABLE G-5 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Table 5-9 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, at a Burdened Fuel Cost of $10 per Gallona,b Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c 100% 90% 50% 100% 90% 50% Re-engining             C-130H/AE 2100d 7.2 7.6 10.5 5,128 4,492 1,947 C-130H/PW150d 7.7 8.2 11.3 4,435 3,867 1,594 B-1/F119/5.0 22.0 24.2 42.4 −129 −246 −771 E-3/CFM56-2B-1 10.2 10.8 15.0 421 362 127 E-3/JT8D-219 16.7 17.7 24.6 83 52 −72 E-3/CFM56-7B22 7.8 8.3 11.3 811 716 337 E-8/CFM56-2B-1e – – – – – – E-8/JT8D-219e – – – – – – E-8/CFM56-7B22e – – – – – – KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1 16.6 17.8 26.2 247 146 −257 KC-135D/E: JT8D-219 25.2 27.2 41.5 −253 −320 −587 KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22 12.9 13.8 19.7 743 598 18 B-52/F117-PW-100 [4] 8.4 8.9 12.6 1,902 1,652 655 B-52/CF34-10A [8] 12.8 13.6 18.9 881 720 78 B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4] 7.6 8.0 10.9 2,304 2,035 959 C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f – – – – – – Engine modification             KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod) 26.5 29.0 49.5 −445 −558 −1,009 C-130H: T56-A427 Modd 7.4 7.9 10.7 2,702 2,367 1,026 C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd 9.6 10.1 14.5 1,413 1,207 381 B-1/F101 Mod 5.3 5.5 6.8 1,551 1,412 854 KC-10/CF6-50 Mod 3.3 3.3 3.6 387 379 347 NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005. aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report. bThe direct fuel cost component of $10.00 increases at 6 percent per year, and the overhead increases at 3 percent per year. cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point. dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions. eE-8 re-engining already ongoing. fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.

OCR for page 169
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft TABLE G-6 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Table 5-9 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, at a Burdened Fuel Cost of $20 per Gallona,b Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c 100% 90% 50% 100% 90% 50% Re-engining             C-130H/AE 2100d 4.2 4.5 7.2 10,877 9,666 4,821 C-130H/PW150d 4.7 5.1 7.8 9,567 8,486 4,161 B-1/F119/5.0 12.6 13.7 23.0 927 705 −183 E-3/CFM56-2B-1 7.1 7.5 10.4 955 843 394 E-3/JT8D-219 11.1 11.9 17.1 366 306 69 E-3/CFM56-7B22 5.7 5.9 7.9 1,673 1,492 768 E-8/CFM56-2B-1e – – – – – – E-8/JT8D-219e – – – – – – E-8/CFM56-7B22e – – – – – – KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1 10.8 11.6 17.1 1,160 968 200 KC-135D/E: JT8D-219 15.8 17.0 26.4 352 225 −284 KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22 8.7 9.2 13.2 2,057 1,781 675 B-52/F117-PW-100 [4] 6.1 6.4 8.6 4,126 3,687 1,785 B-52/CF34-10A [8] 8.8 9.3 13.0 2,336 2,030 806 B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4] 5.5 5.9 7.7 4,742 4,229 2,178 C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f – – – – – – Engine modification             KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod) 15.4 16.8 28.0 580 364 −497 C-130H: T56-A427 Modd 4.5 4.9 7.5 5,731 5,093 2,540 C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd 6.5 7.1 9.7 3,277 2,884 1,313 B-1/F101 Mod 4.3 4.3 5.3 2,807 2,542 1,482 KC-10/CF6-50 Mod 3.1 3.1 3.3 460 445 384 NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005. aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report. bThe direct fuel cost component of $20.00 increases at 6 percent per year, and the overhead increases at 3 percent per year. cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point. dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions. eE-8 re-engining already ongoing. fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.

OCR for page 169
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft TABLE G-7 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Table 5-9 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, at a Burdened Fuel Cost of $40 per Gallona,b Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c 100% 90% 50% 100% 90% 50% Re-engining             C-130H/AE 2100d 2.5 2.9 4.2 22,373 20,012 10,570 C-130H/PW150d 3.1 3.3 4.7 19,832 17,724 9,293 B-1/F119/5.0 7.8 8.3 12.8 3,041 2,607 874 E-3/CFM56-2B-1 5.2 5.4 7.1 2,023 1,804 928 E-3/JT8D-219 7.4 7.9 11.2 930 814 351 E-3/CFM56-7B22 4.0 4.2 5.7 3,397 3,043 1,630 E-8/CFM56-2B-1e – – – – – – E-8/JT8D-219e – – – – – – E-8/CFM56-7B22e – – – – – – KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1 7.3 7.7 10.9 2,987 2,612 1,113 KC-135D/E: JT8D-219 9.9 10.6 16.0 1,563 1,314 321 KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22 6.2 6.5 8.8 4,686 4,147 1,990 B-52/F117-PW-100 [4] 3.9 4.2 6.1 8,683 7,755 4,046 B-52/CF34-10A [8] 6.3 6.6 8.8 5,248 4,650 2,261 B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4] 3.6 3.8 5.5 9,618 8,617 4,616 C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f – – – – – – Engine modification             KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod) 9.4 10.1 15.7 2,629 2,209 527 C-130H: T56-A427 Modd 3.1 3.2 4.5 11,788 10,544 5,569 C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd 4.0 4.3 6.5 7,004 6,239 3,177 B-1/F101 Mod 4.1 4.1 4.3 5,317 4,801 2,737 KC-10/CF6-50 Mod 3.0 3.0 3.1 606 576 457 NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005. aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report. bThe direct fuel cost component of $40.00 increases at 6 percent per year, and the overhead increases at 3 percent per year. cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point. dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions. eE-8 re-engining already ongoing. fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.