TABLE G-6 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Table 5-9 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, at a Burdened Fuel Cost of $20 per Gallona,b

Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination

Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c

Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c

100%

90%

50%

100%

90%

50%

Re-engining

 

 

 

 

 

 

C-130H/AE 2100d

4.2

4.5

7.2

10,877

9,666

4,821

C-130H/PW150d

4.7

5.1

7.8

9,567

8,486

4,161

B-1/F119/5.0

12.6

13.7

23.0

927

705

−183

E-3/CFM56-2B-1

7.1

7.5

10.4

955

843

394

E-3/JT8D-219

11.1

11.9

17.1

366

306

69

E-3/CFM56-7B22

5.7

5.9

7.9

1,673

1,492

768

E-8/CFM56-2B-1e

E-8/JT8D-219e

E-8/CFM56-7B22e

KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1

10.8

11.6

17.1

1,160

968

200

KC-135D/E: JT8D-219

15.8

17.0

26.4

352

225

−284

KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22

8.7

9.2

13.2

2,057

1,781

675

B-52/F117-PW-100 [4]

6.1

6.4

8.6

4,126

3,687

1,785

B-52/CF34-10A [8]

8.8

9.3

13.0

2,336

2,030

806

B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4]

5.5

5.9

7.7

4,742

4,229

2,178

C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f

Engine modification

 

 

 

 

 

 

KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod)

15.4

16.8

28.0

580

364

−497

C-130H: T56-A427 Modd

4.5

4.9

7.5

5,731

5,093

2,540

C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd

6.5

7.1

9.7

3,277

2,884

1,313

B-1/F101 Mod

4.3

4.3

5.3

2,807

2,542

1,482

KC-10/CF6-50 Mod

3.1

3.1

3.3

460

445

384

NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005.

aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report.

bThe direct fuel cost component of $20.00 increases at 6 percent per year, and the overhead increases at 3 percent per year.

cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point.

dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions.

eE-8 re-engining already ongoing.

fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.



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