TABLE 5-9 Sensitivity of Years to Recoup Investment to Total Burdened Fuel Costa

Candidate Aircraft/Engine Configuration

Years to Recoup Investment with Total Burdened Fuel Cost of

$2.50/Galb

$5/Galb

$10/Galb

$20/Galb

$40/Galb

Re-engining

C-130H/AE 2100c

17.7

10.9

7.3

4.2

2.5

C-130H/PW150c

19.5

11.7

7.9

4.8

3.1

B-1/F119/5.0

>60

55.7

24.4

12.9

7.8

E-3/CFM56-2B-1

22.2

15.7

10.5

7.2

5.2

E-3/JT8D-219

36.3

26.2

17.5

11.3

7.5

E-3/CFM56-7B22

16.5

11.6

8.0

5.7

4.0

E-8/CFM56-2B-1d

E-8/JT8D-219d

E-8/CFM56-7B22d

KC-135D/E/CFM56-2B-1

45.1

28.6

17.6

11.0

7.4

KC-135D/E/JT8D-219

>60

48.9

27.8

16.3

10.0

KC-135D/E/CFM56-7B22

31.6

20.9

13.5

8.8

6.2

B-52/F117-PW-100 [4]

20.6

13.2

8.7

6.1

3.9

B-52/CF34-10A [8]

28.4

20.0

13.3

8.9

6.3

B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4]

16.1

11.2

7.8

5.6

3.6

C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)e

Engine modification

KC-135 R/T/CFM56-2B-1 Mod

>60

>60

30.0

15.9

9.5

C-130H/T56-A427 Modc

17.8

11.1

7.6

4.6

3.1

C-130H/T56-S3.5 Modc

26.1

15.3

9.9

6.6

4.1

B-1/F101 Mod

8.0

6.9

5.4

4.3

4.1

KC-10/CF6-50 Mod

3.8

3.6

3.3

3.0

3.0

NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the Avitas BlueBook of Jet Engine Values 2007 or the IBA Engine Value Book 2005.

aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report.

bShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point.

cThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions.

dE-8 re-engining already in progress.

eC-5 re-engining already in progress

REFERENCES

AW&ST (Aviation Week and Space Technology). 2005. “Outlook/specifications: Gas turbine engines.” January 17. 162(3): 122-134.

Fox, Bernard, Michael Boito, John Graser, and Obaid Younossi. 2004. Test and Evaluation Trends and Costs for Aircraft and Guided Weapons. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Project Air Force. Available online at http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG109.pdf. Last accessed on January 18, 2006.

Jane’s Aero-Engines. Jawa.janes.com. Updated February 20, 2006. Accessed July-September 2006.

U.S. Air Force. 2005. The Engine Handbook. Oklahoma City, Okla.: Air Logistics Center. December.

Younossi, Obaid, Mark Arena, Richard Moore, Mark Lorell, Joanna Mason, and John Graser. 2002. Military Jet Engine Acquisition: Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Project Air Force. Available online at http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1596.pdf. Last accessed on January 18, 2006.



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