Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism

Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop

Roddam Narasimha and Arvind Kumar, Editors

Stephen P. Cohen and Rita Guenther, Editors

Committee on International Security and Arms Control

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

In cooperation with

INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC AND SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAMME OF THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ADVANCED STUDIES

Bangalore, India

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop Roddam Narasimha and Arvind Kumar, Editors Stephen P. Cohen and Rita Guenther, Editors Committee on International Security and Arms Control NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES In cooperation with INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC AND SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAMME OF THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ADVANCED STUDIES Bangalore, India THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Council of the National Academy of Sciences. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report was supported by Task Order No. N00014-05-G-0288, DO#9 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of Naval Research. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data International Standard Book Number (13): 978-0-309-10499-9 International Standard Book Number (10): 0-309-10499-8 A limited number of copies are available from the Committee on International Security and Arms Control, National Academies of Science, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001; (202) 334-2811. Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America. Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop U.S. NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL Raymond Jeanloz, University of California, Berkeley, Chair John F. Ahearne, Sigma Xi William F. Burns, U.S. Army War College Ashton B. Carter, Harvard University Christopher F. Chyba, Princeton University Stephen P. Cohen, The Brookings Institution David R. Franz, Midwest Research Institute Richard L. Garwin, BM Thomas J. Watson Research Center Rose Gottemoeller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Margaret A. Hamburg, Nuclear Threat Initiative Alastair Iain Johnston, Harvard University Gerald F. Joyce, The Scripps Research Institute Richard W. Mies, Hicks & Associates M.T. Clegg, University of California, Irvine, Ex Officio Member ORGANIZING COMMITTEE OF THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO COUNTER TERRORISM WORKSHOP Kumar Patel, University of California, Los Angeles, Chair Stephen P. Cohen, The Brookings Institution Richard L. Garwin, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center Rose Gottemoeller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace John P. Holdren, Harvard University Jonathan D. Pollack, The RAND Corporation Staff Patricia Wrightson, Senior Program Officer, National Research Council Rita S. Guenther, Senior Program Associate, National Research Council Stacy Speer, Senior Program Assistant, National Research Council

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Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC AND SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAMME NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ADVANCED STUDIES Bangalore, India V. K. Aatre, Scientific Advisor to Raksha Mantri and Secretary to Department of Defense Research and Development, Ministry of Defense N. Balakrishnan, Science and Engineering Research Council, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore Kalyan Banerjee, Former Defence Research Development Organisation Scientist Vijay Chandru, Strand Genomics S. Gopal, Associate, National Institute of Advanced Studies Major General (Retd.) Afsir Karim, Security Analyst, New Delhi Y.P. Kumar, Department of Science & Technology Brig. A.S. Lamba, Deputy Director General of Perspective Planning Rear Admiral (Retd.) Raja Menon, Security Analyst, New Delhi Arrabida Mitra, Department of Science & Technology, New Delhi T.G.K. Murthy, Department of Space Roddam Narasimha, Director, National Institute of Advanced Studies M.K. Narayanan, Center for Security Analysis, Chennai P.C. Pandey, Director, National Center for Antarctic and Ocean Research, Goa M. K. Paul, Controller, National Institute of Advanced Studies P. Rama Rao, International Advanced Research Centre for Powder Metallurgy and New Materials, Hyderabad S. Rajagopal, Homi Bhabha Visiting Professor, National Institute of Advanced Studies V.S. Ramamurthy, Secretary, Department of Science & Technology B. Raman, Institute of Topical Studies, Chennai M.K. Rasgotra, Former Foreign Secretary, Government of India Julio Ribeiro, Former Police Commissioner, Punjab Gen. S. Rodrigues, Former Chief of Army Staff K. Santhanam, Director, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses V. Siddhartha, Defence Research Development Organisation, Headquarters G.R. Srinivasan, Former Atomic Energy Regulatory Board Scientist R. Varadarajan, Head, Administration, Department of Science and Technology Zingde, Director, National Institute of Oceanography National Institute of Advanced Studies Staff Maj. Gen. M.K. Paul (Retd.), Controller, National Institute of Advanced Studies Arvind Kumar, Research Faculty, International Strategic & Security Studies

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Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop Preface These proceedings present the papers and summarize the discussions of a workshop held in Goa, India, in January 2004, organized under the aegis of the Indian National Institute of Advanced Science (NIAS) and the U.S. Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC). NIAS is an independent research institute located on the campus of the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore, and CISAC is a standing committee of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS). The two groups have had an ongoing bilateral dialogue since 1999. In four meetings held before the workshop, NIAS and CISAC addressed such subjects as the future of nuclear arms control, nuclear doctrine and operational practices for nuclear weapons, protection and accounting of nuclear explosive materials, Indian-U.S. cooperation in science and technology, and security developments in South Asia and other regions. From the early planning stages of this project, CISAC and NIAS searched for a workshop topic that could be explored in greater depth, a topic of relevance to scientists, experts, and the broader policy communities in India and the United States. In 2001 it was agreed that the topic of this workshop, how science and technology can be used to counter terrorism, was of great importance and great timeliness. By the 2003 planning meeting in Bangalore, terrorism had become an issue of central concern for the United States, as it had been in India for some time. Terrorism was an issue that deeply concerned both countries. Workshop organizers therefore decided to attempt something tangible as a next step in the NIAS-CISAC dialogue by seeking to meet three objectives during the joint event. First, we wanted to better understand the nature of the terrorist threat that we faced in both countries and elsewhere in the world, and how it became a global phenomenon. Our hope was that this workshop might better prepare Indian and U.S. specialists to work together to counter the networks now responsible for a variety of terrorist attacks across the globe. Second, we specifically wanted to see how science and technology could help in the fight against terrorism, and therefore this question became the framework for the workshop. We were conscious of the fact that science and technology alone will not solve the problem. For this reason, the workshop included those who had dealt with the realities of terrorism from perspectives beyond those of the more traditional science and technology communities. Nevertheless, science and technology can be of great

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Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop assistance if properly employed, and we wanted to jointly explore the best ways to identify the areas where it can be most effective. Third, NIAS and CISAC wanted to explore opportunities for the United States and India to work together. We recognized that terrorism is a common problem, although it may manifest itself in different ways in the U.S. and Indian contexts. Even allowing for differences between our countries, what are the opportunities for specific cooperation? We wanted to use this meeting as a catalyst for people—scientists as well as other experts—from the two countries to come together and identify areas for joint research and, potentially, for joint action. Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, U.S. officials publicly invited ideas and proposals from across the world. We hope that the proposals and ideas discussed at the workshop, and presented below, might contribute to ways in which both countries can better tackle the problems created by terrorism. Terrorism is not a new problem. However, terrorists now employ science and technology to conduct terrorist attacks across national boundaries. Despite its international reach, the manifestations of terror differ from location to location. It was this contrast of the similarities yet differences that made this particular workshop so beneficial. Bringing together scientists and experts with common scientific and technical backgrounds from different cultures provided a unique opportunity to explore possible means of preventing or mitigating future terrorist attacks. Although there is great hope that the judicious deployment of science and technology will make it difficult for terrorists to conduct further acts of violence, as scientists we recognize that 100 percent protection is not possible. The agenda of the workshop was driven by the desire to maximize the experience and expertise of the Indian and American participants, and to lay the groundwork for long-term collaboration. All of the sessions and their accompanying discussions, and particularly the last session, explored areas for the United States and India to collaborate in the future. The workshop was organized into five sessions. Session I surveyed the terrorist threats in the United States and in India and relevant science and technology tools available in each country. Sessions II-IV covered the following specific themes: threats to information technology and communications, vulnerabilities of urban and infrastructure targets, vulnerability of nuclear power facilities, and risks to human and animal health from bioterrorism. The final session gave us an opportunity to explore the question, “Where do we go from here?” Our expectations were that the workshop would yield a deeper understanding of terrorist threats to our respective countries, and identify steps by which science and technology can deter, prevent, monitor, mitigate, respond to, and recover from potential terrorist acts. Many valuable insights on countering terrorism were gained through the joint workshop and remain valid and relevant even some time after they were originally discussed. These insights have been captured in the papers presented throughout these proceedings. We also wanted to identify future joint activities. These need not be carried out under the auspices of NIAS or CISAC, and our goal was to suggest two or three such activities to be pursued by the broader Indian and U.S. science and technology communities. Our belief is that the proceedings of this workshop demonstrate the great value in both clarifying the nature of the threat and developing ideas for future

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Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop cooperation to address that threat. The underlying premise of this entire project is that terrorism can be addressed more effectively if there are cooperative and multilateral efforts by affected states, rather than a series of uncoordinated activities by individual states. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not represent the positions of the Office of Naval Research, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), NIAS, or other organizations where the authors are employed. Acknowledgments This publication was made possible by a grant from the Indo-U.S. Science and Technology Forum and by the Office of Naval Research, and in India by the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore. This volume has been reviewed in draft form by several individuals chosen for their technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in ensuring that the report is as sound as possible and meets institutional standards for quality. The review comments and original draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of selected papers: Edward Badolato, Integrated Infrastructure Analytics, Inc.; Carol Blair, Colorado State University; David Borth, Motorola Inc.; Siegfried Hecker, Stanford University; Raphael Perl, Congressional Research Service; S. Rajagopal, National Institute of Advanced Studies, India; R. Rajaraman, Jawaharlal Nehru University; and Basheerhamad Shadrach, International Development Research Centre. Although these reviewers have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the individual papers. Responsibility for the final content of the papers rests with the individual authors. We wish to thank the following individuals for their cooperation and support, and for their assistance in making the workshop possible and subsequently in producing these proceedings. Dr. Roddam Narasimha and Dr. Kumar Patel served as co-chairmen of the workshop, ensuring the success of the joint NIAS-CISAC event that led to this rich volume and opened the path for further cooperation between scientists from India and the United States. Dr. Stephen P. Cohen served as a skilled editor of the early drafts of the manuscript, crafting passages as deftly as a diplomat and as carefully as the dedicated scholar that he is. Arvind Kumar, a Research Faculty Member at NIAS, was instrumental in completing these proceedings. Without his tireless dedication, diligence, and cooperation with NAS staff, the final publication of these proceedings would not have been possible. The hard work and systematic approach of Ms. Rita Guenther of CISAC, NAS, helped in bringing about this publication. She worked around the clock on this publication since July 2006. It would not have seen the light of the day without her persistence, experience, and understanding.

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Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop Contents     SURVEY OF TERRORIST THREATS IN THE UNITED STATES AND INDIA AND RELEVANT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY     1   Science, Technology, and Countering Terrorism: The Search for a Sustainable Strategy Lewis M. Branscomb   1 2   Terrorist Threats in India Major General (Retired) Afsir Karim   15 3   Discussion of Terrorist Threats in the United States and India and Relevant Science and Technology B. Raman and Harry Barnes, Discussion Moderators   21     INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATIONS SECURITY     4   Information Technology and Communications Security in India N. Balakrishnan   31 5   Cyberterrorism and Security Measures S. E. Goodman   43 6   Discussion of Information Technology and Communications Security Rear Admiral (Retired) Raja Menon and Kumar Patel, Discussion Moderators   55     PROTECTING NUCLEAR-ENERGY FACILITIES     7   Threats to Civil Nuclear-energy Facilities John P. Holdren   61 8   Threats to Nuclear Facilities: Framing the Problem P. Rama Rao   71

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Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop 9   Discussion of Protecting Nuclear-energy Facilities G.R. Srinivasan and Rose Gottemoeller, Discussion Moderators   77     TERRORIST THREATS TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND RELEVANT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESPONSES     10   Local Realities of Terrorist Threats Julio Ribeiro   85 11   Securing Against Infrastructure Terrorism Lawrence T. Papay   91 12   Discussion of Terrorist Threats to Infrastructure and Relevant Science and Technology Responses M.K. Narayanan and Richard L. Garwin, Discussion Moderators   103     BIOLOGICAL AND AGRICULTURE TERRORIST THREATS     13   India and Agricultural Bioterrorism Kalyan Bannerjee   111 14   Twentieth-century Legacy: The Biological Threats to Twenty-first Century Science and Society Christopher J. Davis   121 15   Discussion of Biology and Agriculture Terrorist Threats S. Gopal and Jonathan Pollack, Discussion Moderators   133     INDO-U.S. COOPERATION     16   Why Should India and the United States Cooperate? K. Santhanam   141 17   Can Science and Technology Help to Counter Terrorism? Richard L. Garwin   145 18   Discussion of Indo-U.S. Cooperation T.G.K. Murthy and John P. Holdren, Discussion Moderators   151     APPENDIXES     A   Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: An Indo-U.S. Workshop, Agenda   159 B   Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism: An Indo-U.S. Workshop, List of Participants   165