(Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, and China) that are dramatically increasing their activities in chemistry. There are many countries in which both the quantity and the quality of chemical research are increasing. As the chemistry world becomes flatter and the ability to communicate across continents increases, the number of international collaborations between U.S. chemists and chemists around the globe will increase.

Analysis of data in Chapters 3 and 4 revealed trends in U.S. chemistry that the panel believes are likely to continue in the near term (two to three years) and midterm (five to seven years). Over the past decade the number of new U.S.-trained Ph.D.s has been virtually constant, the number of papers published per year by U.S. chemists has not grown, and federal research support for chemistry has struggled to keep up with inflation. In contrast, the number of Ph.D.s trained outside the United States continues to increase. The number of papers published by non-U.S. authors in both international and American Chemical Society journals is increasing. In many areas of chemistry, other countries are making strategic investments in chemistry research. Based on flat U.S. chemistry research budgets and flat numbers of students, the panel projects that other nations and regions will soon be catching up with the United States. Projections for chemistry as a whole and for various areas and subareas of chemistry are presented below.

Will the United States Continue to Lead in Chemistry Publications?

The panel projects that the percentage of chemistry papers from U.S. authors will continue to decrease over the next several years. This will not be due to a decrease in the number of U.S. papers but to an increase in the number of papers from other countries. The quality of international chemistry is also increasing, and the panel projects that this will be reflected in increased citations per paper for non-U.S. authors and result in a decrease in the U.S. lead in citations per paper. Similarly, the fractions of the most highly accessed, most highly cited, and “hot” papers coming from non-U.S. authors are expected to increase.

Will There Be a Sustainable Supply of U.S. Chemists?

The number of chemistry Ph.D.s trained in the United States has been steady at about 2,000 per year for the past several decades. However, over this time the number of U.S.citizens receiving chemistry Ph.D.s has steadily decreased mainly due to the decline of U.S. males receiving degrees. To maintain the same number of chemistry graduate students, U.S. universities have successfully attracted increasing numbers of U.S. females and students from other countries, who often stay in the United States to pursue careers



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