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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
×

ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ASSESSMENTS LESSONS LEARNED

Committee on Analysis of Global Change Assessments

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Contract No. NASW-01008 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-10485-2

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-10485-8

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Cover: Design by Michele de la Menardiere, the National Academies Press. NASA MODIS image of fires over Florida and Georgia in May, 2007. Image source: NASA Earth Observatory (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov)

Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
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COMMITTEE ON ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ASSESSMENTS

GUY P. BRASSEUR (Chair),

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

KATHARINE L. JACOBS (Vice-chair),

Arizona Water Institute, Tucson

ERIC J. BARRON,

The University of Texas, Austin

RICHARD BENEDICK,

Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland

WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES,

Environmental Defense, New York, New York

THOMAS DIETZ,

Michigan State University, East Lansing

PATRICIA ROMERO LANKAO,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

MACK MCFARLAND,

DuPont Fluoroproducts, Wilmington, Delaware

HAROLD A. MOONEY,

Stanford University, California

RAVI V. NATHAN,

ACE USA Global Weather, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

EDWARD A. PARSON,

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

RICHARD RICHELS,

Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Washington, D.C.

BASC Liaison

ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

NRC Staff

CLAUDIA MENGELT, Study Director

AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Program Officer

ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Research Associate

RACHAEL SHIFLETT, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
×

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND (Chair),

University of California, Irvine

M. JOAN ALEXANDER,

NorthWest Research Associates/CORA, Boulder, Colorado

MICHAEL L. BENDER,

Princeton University, New Jersey

ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

CAROL ANNE CLAYSON,

Florida State University, Tallahassee

WALTER F. DABBERDT,

Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado

KERRY A. EMANUEL,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

DENNIS L. HARTMANN,

University of Washington, Seattle

PETER R. LEAVITT,

Weather Information Inc., Newton, Massachusetts

VERNON R. MORRIS,

Howard University, Washington, D.C.

THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,

Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins

Ex Officio Members

ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR.,

University of Maryland, College Park

NRC Staff

CHRIS ELFRING, Director

AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Program Officer

CURTIS MARSHALL, Program Officer

IAN KRAUCUNAS, Program Officer

CLAUDIA MENGELT, Program Officer

LEAH PROBST, Research Associate

ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Research Associate

ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant

RACHAEL SHIFLETT, Senior Program Assistant

KATIE WELLER, Senior Program Assistant

DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Coordinator

SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
×

Preface

Communication between scientists and decision makers has always been a challenge. The two communities use different languages and have different needs. Before scientists can convey their information, which usually appears in the peer-reviewed literature, to decision makers, it needs to be synthesized and integrated so that relevant facts can be communicated in a useful form. Assessments are evaluation and consensus building processes for establishing an integrated view of recent scientific break-throughs and providing policy-relevant information to decision makers. For assessments to be effective and credible, the process has to be open and must provide accurate, useful, and scientifically tested information.

During the last four decades, many assessments have been produced to address important questions related to environmental issues such as ozone depletion, climate change, and the loss of biodiversity. Many of these assessments have been conducted at the international level and have provided the scientific basis for the elaboration of international agreements such as the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992), and the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1997). They gave scientists the opportunity to develop networks of expertise and to provide the latest information to policy makers in many countries. Assessments have become a common activity, but their success depends on a number of conditions. This report analyzes conditions that contribute to successful assessments.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
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In the United States, the first national assessment focused specifically on climate change was conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program and completed in October 2000. A second round of assessment was initiated in 2002 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). Recently, the research community and the CCSP leadership agreed that it would be valuable to evaluate the assessment process itself to learn from various past efforts in conducting assessments with the goal of guiding future assessment activities. Therefore, in the spring of 2004 the CCSP asked the National Academies to look at lessons learned from past global change assessments (see Appendix A for the Statement of Task). In response, an ad hoc committee of 12 members was formed (see Appendix E for the committee’s composition and biographies). The committee was charged with undertaking a comparative analysis of past global change assessments with goals similar to the CCSP to identify strengths and weaknesses in the process. Based on that analysis, the committee was asked to provide CCSP with advice on its approach to future assessment activities.

The committee held five meetings to gather information and deliberate on its findings and recommendations. During the first meeting, the committee met with CCSP representatives to discuss the committee’s charge and with scholars to learn from past evaluations of global change assessments. At its second meeting, additional scholars were consulted for their analysis of assessment processes. In addition, renowned leaders of assessment processes were invited to reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of the processes in which they were involved. Stakeholders from the private sector and from regional to federal government were invited to the third and fourth meetings to discuss design issues that could foster effective engagement of user communities and ensure that assessments meet the needs of the target audience. As an example of an international approach, the committee heard from German scientists about their global change assessment processes during its fourth meeting. The final meeting was reserved for closed committee deliberation and report development.

I would like to thank all of the individuals who shared their knowledge and experience with members of our committee and assisted us in gathering the information needed to formulate sound recommendations. The committee is to be complemented for its diligence and commitment to this study. I thank, in particular, the vice-chair Katharine L. Jacobs, who assisted me in organizing the work of the committee and in chairing some of the sessions.

It is also a pleasure to recognize the outstanding work of the study director, Dr. Claudia Mengelt, who did a superb job in the conduct of the present study and was assisted very effectively by senior program assistant Rachael Shiflett at the National Research Council.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
×

The committee hopes that this report will be useful to the CCSP in identifying lessons learned from past assessments and in providing advice to guide future global change assessment activities in the United States.

Guy P. Brasseur

Chair

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
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Acknowledgments

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Patricia Anderson, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

Scott Barrett, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, D.C.

Ann Bostrom, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Brian Flannery, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Clinton, New Jersey

Gerald Galloway, University of Maryland, College Park

Henry Jacoby, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Jennifer Logan, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Michael C. MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, D.C.

M. Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Roger Pulwarty, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
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Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Thomas Graedel, Yale University, and Debra Knopman, The RAND Corporation; appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

The committee would also like to thank the many individuals who contributed during the committee’s information gathering phase especially: Stephen O. Anderson, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Dan Basketfield, Senior Water Resources Engineer, Seattle Public Utilities; Tom Buschatzke, Water Advisor, City of Phoenix; William Clark, Harvard University; Robert Corell, National Science Foundation, retired; William Fang, Edison Electric Institute; John H. Gibbons, Resource Strategies; Hartmut Grassl, University of Hamburg, Germany; Bryan Hannegan, formerly Council on Environmental Quality; Tony Janetos, Joint Global Change Research Institute; Jim Jensen, National Academies; James Mahoney, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, retired; Susi Moser, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Walt Reid, Packard Foundation; Sam Sadler, Oregon Department of Energy; John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute für Klima, Germany; Peter Schultz, Climate Change Science Program; Truman Semans, Pew Center; Margaret Spring, U.S. Senate staff; Stacy VanDeveer, University of New Hampshire; Bob Watson, World Bank; and Thomas Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11868.
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 A Strategic Communication Plan,

 

57

   

 Summary of Guidance from the Literature,

 

60

4

 

CASE STUDIES OF GLOBAL CHANGE ASSESSMENTS

 

63

   

 Stratospheric Ozone Assessments,

 

65

   

 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

 

71

   

 Global Biodiversity Assessment,

 

77

   

 National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts,

 

79

   

 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment,

 

83

   

 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment,

 

86

   

 The German Enquete Kommission,

 

90

   

 Synthesis and Assessment Products of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program,

 

93

5

 

ADVICE FOR EFFECTIVE ASSESSMENTS

 

99

   

 Framing the Assessment,

 

100

   

 Adequate Funding,

 

105

   

 Assessment Benefits, Opportunity Costs, and Efficiency Considerations,

 

106

   

 Timing and Frequency,

 

111

   

 Identifying, Engaging, and Responding to Stakeholders,

 

112

   

 Leadership and Organizational Structure,

 

122

   

 Integrated Assessments,

 

123

   

 Treatment of Uncertainty,

 

126

   

 A Credible and Independent Review Process,

 

127

   

 Developing Decision-Support Applications,

 

128

   

 Employing a Nested Matrix Approach,

 

129

 

 

REFERENCES

 

131

 

 

APPENDIXES

 

 

   

 A  Statement of Task

 

143

   

 B  U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990

 

145

   

 C  Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Products

 

159

   

 D  Climate Change Science Program Guidelines for Producing Its Synthesis and Assessment Products

 

163

   

 E  Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff

 

173

   

 F  Acronyms

 

181

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Global change assessments inform decision makers about the scientific underpinnings of a range of environmental issues, such as climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, and loss of biodiversity. Dozens of assessments have been conducted to date by various U.S. and international groups, many of them influencing public policies, technology development, and research directions. This report analyzes strengths and weaknesses of eight past assessments to inform future efforts. Common elements of effective assessments include strong leadership, extensive engagement with interested and affected parties, a transparent science-policy interface, and well defined communication strategies. The report identifies 11 essential elements of effective assessments and recommends that future assessments include decision support tools that make use of information at the regional and local level where decisions are made.

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