TABLE 3-12 Summary of Results of Epidemic Simulation Runs Showing the Effects of “No Response” Scenarios 1 and 2 and Response Scenarios 3–10 on Epidemics Initiated by the Introduction of 500 Smallpox Cases into 50,000-Person Towns

Scenario

Single Uniform Town

Ring of Six Towns

Cases

Deaths

NewVaccinations

Duration (days)

Cases

Deaths

New Vaccinations

Duration (days)

Mean (SD)

Mean (SD)

Mean (SD)

Mean (SD)

Mean (SD)

Mean (SD)

Mean (SD)

Mean (SD)

No response

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

46,474.6(109.3)

14,641.7 (117.9)

NA (NA)

1,280.8 (159.6)

46,463.7 (100.0)

14,623.4 (66.2)

NA (NA)

1,204.5 (139.3)

2

26,915.2(819.4)

8,435.3 (288.6)

NA (NA)

453.2 (30.4)

27,103.0 (784.3)

8,476.0 (220.60

NA (NA)

531.7 (77.2)

Response

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

1,609.5(90.2)

415.6 (29.6)

8,780.7 (445.2)

104.3 (13.1)

1,563.6 (95.4)

406.8 (28.9)

8,325.4 (407.7)

105.1 (16.6)

4

1,635.9(133.5)

429.9 (35.0)

8,945.1 (592.5)

109.2 (18.6)

1,500.2 (59.2)

400.5 (16.1)

8,114.5 (445.6)

107.3 (10.1)

5

1,657.3(88.0)

429.6 (22.5)

8,988.3 (371.2)

112.5 (9.7)

1,472.6 (126.7)

392.1 (37.1)

7,993.1 (618.2)

101.9 (11.8)

6

1,146.9(69.3)

305.1 (21.1)

22,023.1 (149.3)

87.1 (6.5)

1,101.2 (55.8)

299.4 (13.7)

21,723.2 (202.6)

81.4 (6.3)

7

1,160.2(52.5)

310.6 (20.6)

22,041.2 (206.0)

86.8 (6.2)

1,088.2 (43.2)

295.1 (15.3)

21,784.2 (202.6)

90.5 (11.5)

8

772.5(45.7)

216.4 (14.0)

37,516.9 (84.8)

66.0 (8.9)

775.0 (17.4)

219.9 (11.6)

37,529.3 (115.3)

65.6 (10.3)

9

780.5(25.6)

211.7 (12.1)

37,560.0 (59.6)

63.6 (7.4)

756.8 (32.1)

214.8 (10.5)

37,569.0 (117.8)

60.3 (5.0)

10

1,634.8(79.3)

428.2 (21.6)

8,928.2 (336.2)

116.0 (14.9)

1,512.6 (50.1)

398.3 (20.2)

8,018.1 (248.3)

104.5 (11.1)

Data from simulations on the single uniform town and ring town architectures are shown (simulations on the hub-and-spoke town architecture were not performed for the 50,000-person town).



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement