. "3 Strategies for Disease Containment." Ethical and Legal Considerations in Mitigating Pandemic Disease: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2007.
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Ethical and Legal Considerations in Mitigating Pandemic Disease: Workshop Summary
TABLE 3-12 Summary of Results of Epidemic Simulation Runs Showing the Effects of “No Response” Scenarios 1 and 2 and Response Scenarios 3–10 on Epidemics Initiated by the Introduction of 500 Smallpox Cases into 50,000-Person Towns
Scenario
Single Uniform Town
Ring of Six Towns
Cases
Deaths
NewVaccinations
Duration (days)
Cases
Deaths
New Vaccinations
Duration (days)
Mean (SD)
Mean (SD)
Mean (SD)
Mean (SD)
Mean (SD)
Mean (SD)
Mean (SD)
Mean (SD)
No response
1
46,474.6(109.3)
14,641.7 (117.9)
NA (NA)
1,280.8 (159.6)
46,463.7 (100.0)
14,623.4 (66.2)
NA (NA)
1,204.5 (139.3)
2
26,915.2(819.4)
8,435.3 (288.6)
NA (NA)
453.2 (30.4)
27,103.0 (784.3)
8,476.0 (220.60
NA (NA)
531.7 (77.2)
Response
3
1,609.5(90.2)
415.6 (29.6)
8,780.7 (445.2)
104.3 (13.1)
1,563.6 (95.4)
406.8 (28.9)
8,325.4 (407.7)
105.1 (16.6)
4
1,635.9(133.5)
429.9 (35.0)
8,945.1 (592.5)
109.2 (18.6)
1,500.2 (59.2)
400.5 (16.1)
8,114.5 (445.6)
107.3 (10.1)
5
1,657.3(88.0)
429.6 (22.5)
8,988.3 (371.2)
112.5 (9.7)
1,472.6 (126.7)
392.1 (37.1)
7,993.1 (618.2)
101.9 (11.8)
6
1,146.9(69.3)
305.1 (21.1)
22,023.1 (149.3)
87.1 (6.5)
1,101.2 (55.8)
299.4 (13.7)
21,723.2 (202.6)
81.4 (6.3)
7
1,160.2(52.5)
310.6 (20.6)
22,041.2 (206.0)
86.8 (6.2)
1,088.2 (43.2)
295.1 (15.3)
21,784.2 (202.6)
90.5 (11.5)
8
772.5(45.7)
216.4 (14.0)
37,516.9 (84.8)
66.0 (8.9)
775.0 (17.4)
219.9 (11.6)
37,529.3 (115.3)
65.6 (10.3)
9
780.5(25.6)
211.7 (12.1)
37,560.0 (59.6)
63.6 (7.4)
756.8 (32.1)
214.8 (10.5)
37,569.0 (117.8)
60.3 (5.0)
10
1,634.8(79.3)
428.2 (21.6)
8,928.2 (336.2)
116.0 (14.9)
1,512.6 (50.1)
398.3 (20.2)
8,018.1 (248.3)
104.5 (11.1)
Data from simulations on the single uniform town and ring town architectures are shown (simulations on the hub-and-spoke town architecture were not performed for the 50,000-person town).
