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P~ 1~11 An] L i, GASES, AND COME CIlANGE Proceedings of a Joint Symposium by the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and the Committee on Global Change Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1989

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National Academy Press . 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D. C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of dis- tinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided jointly by the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, the Department of the Interior, the Department of Transportation, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Climate Program Office under Grant Number NA87-AA-D-CP041. Readers are reminded that the opinions expressed in these proceedings are those of the individual participants and do not necessarily represent the consensus viewpoints of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences or the Committee on Global Change. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Ozone depletion, greenhouse gases, and climate change. Proceedings of the Joint Symposium on Ozone Depletion, Greenhouse Gases, and Climate Change held at the National Academy of Sciences, Mar. 23, 1988. Includes bibliographies and index. 1. Stratospheric ozone-Reduction-Congresses. 2. Climatic changes-Congresses. 3. Green- house effect, Atmospheric-Congresses. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. II. National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Global Change. III. Joint Symposium on Ozone Depletion, Greenhouse Gases, and Climate Change (1988: National Academy of Sciences) QC881.2.S8097 1988 551.6 88-31544 ISBN 0-309-03945-2 Printed in the United States of America First Printing, November 1988 Second Inning, August 1989 Third Inning, March 199() Fourth Punting, July 1990

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l COMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CHANGE HAROLD A. MOONEY, Stanford University, Chairman D. JAMES BAKER, JR., Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc. FRANCIS P. BRETHERTON, University of Wisconsin, Madison KEVIN C. BURKE, Lunar and Planetary Institute, Houston, Texas WILLIAM C. CLARK, Harvard University MARGARET B. DAVIS, University of Minnesota ROBERT E. DICKINSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University THOMAS F. MALONE, St. Joseph College MICHAEL B. McELROY, Harvard University BERRIEN MOORE ITT, University of New Hampshire ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ohio State University PAUL G. RISSER, University of New Mexico JOHN S. PERRY, Staff Director RUTH DeFRIES, Staff Officer .. 111

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J BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE RICHARD A. ANTHES, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Chairman JAMES G. ANDERSON, Harvard University JON F. BARTHOLIC, Michigan State University MOUSTAFA T. CHAHINE, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology RALPH J. CICERONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research ALEXANDER J. DESSLER, Rice University JOHN A. DUTTON, Pennsylvania State University JOHN GERBER, University of Florida MICHAEL H. GLANTZ, National Center for Atmospheric Research THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, AT&T Bell Laboratories DAVID D. HOUGHTON, University of Wisconsin, Madison RICHARD G. JOHNSON, Consultant EUGENIA KALNAY, National Meteorological Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration T. N. KRISHNAMURTI, Florida State University JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin, Madison SYUKURO MANABE, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics I.aboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration CLAES H. ROOTH, University of Miami JOHN S. PERRY, Staff Director KENNETH H. BERGMAN, Staff Officer FRED D. WHITE, Staff Officer DONALD H. HUNT, Consultant 1V

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CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE ROBERT E. DICKINSON, National Center for Atmospheri Research, Chairman ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University INEZ Y. FUNG, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration ANTS LEETMAA, Climate Analysis Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration JENNIFER A. LOGAN, Harvard University JERRY D. MAHLMAN, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration W. RICHARD PELTIER, University of Toronto JORGE L. SARMIENTO, Princeton University GRAEME L. STEPHENS, Colorado State University KEVIN E. TRENBERTH, National Center for Atmospheric Research JOHN E. WALSH, University of Illinois JOHN S. PERRY, Staff Director KENNETH H. BERGMAN, Staff Officer c v

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COMMITTEE ON ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY ROBERT E. SIEVERS, University of Colorado, Chairman WILLIAM L. CHAMElDES, Georgia Institute of Technology ROBERT A. DUCK, University of Rhode Island DIETER H. EHHALT, Institut fur Chemie der Kernforschungsaniage Julich GmbH, Federal Republic of Germany FRED D. FEHSENFELD, Aeronomy Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ROBERT C. HARRISS, University of New Hampshire CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc. RONALD G. PRINN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, University of California, Irvine STEPHEN E. SCHWARTZ, Brookhaven National Laboratory JOHN S. PERRY, Staff Director FRED D. WHITE, Staff Officer V1

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l COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND RESOURCES NORMAN HACKERMAN, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University HERBERT D. DOAN, The Dow Chemical Company (retired) PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology DEAN E. EASTMAN, IBM, T.~. Watson Research Center MARYE ANNE FOX, University of Texas GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory LAWRENCE W. FUNKHOUSER, Chevron Corporation (retired) PHILLTP A. GRIFFITHS, Duke University CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California, Berkeley JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University JEREMIAH P. OSTRIKER, Princeton University Observatory FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt University DENTS J. PRAGER, MacArthur Foundation DAVID M. RAUP, University of Chicago RICHARD J. REED, University of Washington ROY F. SCHWITTERS, Harvard University ROBERT E. STEVERS, University of Colorado LEON T. SILVER, California Institute of Technology LARRY L. SMARR, National Center for Supercomputing Applications EDWARD C. STONE, JR., California Institute of Technology KARL K. TUREKIAN, Yale University RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director MYRON F. UMAN, Associate Executive Director - V11

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Foreword One motivation for organizing this symposium wan the unusual convergence of a number of observations, both short term (less than 100 years) and long term (up to tens of thousand of years), that defy an integrated explanation. Of particular importance are surface temperature observations especially the fact that 1987 was one of the warmest years on record globally and observations of upper atmospheric temperatures, which have declined significantly in parts of the stratosphere. There has also been a dramatic decline in ozone concentration over Antarctica that was not predicted. Significant changes in precipitation that seem to be latitude dependent have occurred. There has been a threefold increase in methane in the last 100 years; this has been a problem in that a source does not appear to exist for methane of the right isotopic composition to explain the increase. The unexpectedly large methane increase provided the motivation for studying methane outgassing in the tundra permafrost regions. Thus, there are many climate and climate-related trends in progress that need study. What is somewhat alarming is the relatively rapid change in cli- mate, in some instances, that paleoclimatic data show. For example, a change well documented by Greenland ice core data is that, some 10,000 to 13,000 years ago, Greenland surface temperatures changed by about 5 or 6C in a period of about 40 years. The explanation currently favored is that this change was due to a concurrent change sac

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l x FOREWORD in the mean position of the North Atlantic polar front. However, similar rapid changes are now being noted based on studies of ice core data from the Vostok, Antarctica, station. Hence, it seems that the comparatively rapid change in the North Atlantic area coincided with equally rapid change in the antarctic region. Thus there are numerous exciting challenges in the area of cli- mate change studies. One purpose of this symposium was to look at how all these indications fit together. Many of the problems we are seeing are associated with radiative gases being contributed to the atmosphere and their consequent effect on the climate, but there are complicated problems of atmospheric chemistry and climate interac- tions that need to be resolved and that served as the motivation for holding this symposium. On behalf of the federal agencies, as represented by the National Climate Program Office, that are concerned with issues of climate and climatic change, ~ wish to thank the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and the Committee on Global Change of the National Research Council for organizing the symposium that resulted in these proceedings. Alan D. Hecht, Director National Climate Program Office

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l Preface Global change is a topic that is of great importance to everyone. Nevertheless, it is often a nebulous concept in the minds of scien- tists from the individual disciplines involved. It is specific problems like the one addressed by this symposium, involving atmospheric dynamics, the coupled climate system, atmospheric chemistry, and the biota, that really indicate the need for a global change program. When specific problems of this nature arise, there seems to be little difficulty in getting scientists from different disciplinary backgrounds to work together with one another. The symposium reported on here can perhaps serve as a model for how such interdisciplinary, global change problems should be attacked. In these Proceedings of the Joint Symposium on Ozone Deple- tion, Greenhouse Gases, and Climate Change, held at the National Academy of Sciences on March 23, 1988, a distinguished group of 10 experts address the important issues of stratospheric ozone de- pletion, possible linkages to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, and their combined effect in causing global climate change to occur. The suggestion for the symposium originated with the Na- tional Climate Program Office, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which asked the National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate to organize a meeting that would provide policymakers with sound scientific input on these is- sues. At an early stage, the planners realized that the symposium X1

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. X11 PREFA CE issues were of equally great concern to the planners of the Interna- tional Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP). Thus, the board joined with the Committee on Global Change (the National Research Coun- cil committee with responsibility for planning the U.S. component of IGBP) as well as with two of its own committees, the Committee on Atmospheric Chemistry and the Climate Research Committee, to plan and organize the symposium. The board and these committees hope that the result, as reported in these proceedings, is of value to specialists in the concerned disciplines and to the larger community of scientists, program managers, and decision makers as well. On behalf of the board, ~ would like to thank the National Climate Program Office for its sponsorship of the symposium, the speakers whose contributions constitute these proceedings, and the several members of the National Research Council staff whose efforts made the symposium possible and resulted in these proceedings. Special thanks are due John Perry, staff director of the board, for his efforts in organizing the symposium and Kenneth Bergman, se- nior program officer of the board, for his work in preparing these proceedings. Richard A. Anthes, Chairman Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

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l Contents 1 Introduction 2 Global Change and the Changing Atmosphere WILLIAM C . CLARK 3 Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: Global Processes DANIEL L. ALBRITTON 4 Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: Antarctic Processes 19 RoBERT T. WATSON 5 The Role of Halocarbons in Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 33 F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND 6 Heterogeneous Chemical Processes in Ozone Depletion MARIo J. MoLINA 7 Free Radicals in the Earth's Atmosphere: Measurement and Interpretation JAMES G. ANDERsoN 8 Theoretical Projections of Stratospheric Change Due to Increasing Greenhouse Gases and Changing Ozone Concentrations JERRY D. MAHLMAN 1 4 10 e X111 48 56 66

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XIV 9 Historical Trends in Atmospheric Methane Concentration and the Temperature Sensitivity of Methane Outgassing from Boreal and Polar Regions ROBERT C. HARRISS 10 Global Temperature Trends KEVIN E. TRENBERTH 11 Use of Numerical Models to Project Greenhouse Gas- Induced Warming in Polar Regions (The Conceptual Basis Developed over the Last Twenty Years) ROBERT E. DIcKINsoN Appendixes A Letter from the National Climate Program Office Requesting a Symposium B Symposium Agenda and Participants C Glossary CONTENTS 79 85 98 105 108 113