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Part II References Acevedo, W., J.L. Taylor, D.J. Hester, C.S. Mladinich, and S. Glavac, 2006, Rates, Trends, Causes, and Consequences of Urban Land-Use Change in the United States, USGS Pro- fessional Paper 1726, Reston, Vir., 206 pp. Alexander, L.V., and 23 coauthors, 2006, Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D05109. Alley, R.B., J. Marotzke, W.D. Nordhaus, J.T. Overpeck, D.M. Peteet, R.A. Pielke Jr., R.T. Pierrehumbert, P.B. Rhines, T.F. Stocker, L.D. Talley, and J.M. Wallace, 2003, Abrupt climate change, Science, 299, 2005-2010. Alverson, K., and D.J. Baker, 2006, Taking the pulse of the oceans, Science, 314, 1657. Anthes, R.A., R.W. Corell, G. Holland, J.W. Hurrell, M.C. MacCracken, and K.E. Trenberth, 2006, Hurricanes and global warming—Potential linkages and consequences, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 623-628. Arvai, J., G. Bridge, N. Dolsak, R. Franzese, T. Koontz, A. Luginbuhl, P. Robbins, K. Richards, K. Korfmacher, B. Sohngen, J. Tansey, and A. Thompson, 2006, Adaptive management of the global climate problem: Bridging the gap between climate research and climate policy, Climatic Change, 78, 217-225. Arvidson, T., S. Goward, J. Gasch, and D. Williams, 2006, Landsat-7 long-term acquisition plan: Development and validation, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 72, 1137-1146. Asner, G.P., D.E. Knapp, E.N. Broadbent, P.J.C. Oliveira, M. Keller, and J.N. Silva, 2005, Selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon, Science, 310, 480-482. Aspinall, R., 2004, Modeling land use change with generalized linear models—A multi-model analysis of change between 1860-2000 in Gallatin Valley, Montana, Journal of Environ- mental Management, 72, 91-103. Aspinall, R., and C. Justice, eds., 2004, A Land Use and Land Cover Change Science Strat- egy, Summary of a workshop held at the Smithsonian Institution, November 19-21, 2003; available at . 121

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122 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP Aydin, M., W.J. DeBruyn, and E.S. Saltzman, 2002, Preindustrial atmospheric car- bonyl sulfide (OCS) from an Antarctic ice core, Geophysical Research Letters, 29, doi:10.1029/2002GL014796. Baker, D.F., and 19 coauthors, 2006, TransCom 3 inversion intercomparison: Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of regional CO2 fluxes, 1988-2003, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20, GB1002. Barford, C.C., S.C. Wofsy, M.L. Goulden, J.W. Munger, E.H. Pyle, S.P. Urbanski, L. Hutyra, S.R. Saleska, D. Fitzjarrald, and K. Moore, 2001, Factors controlling long- and short-term sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in a mid-latitude forest, Science, 294, 1688-1691. Bierkens, M.F.P., and B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, 2007, Groundwater convergence as a possible mechanism for multi-year persistence in rainfall, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L02402. Bierregaard, R.O., C. Gascon, T.E. Lovejoy, and R. Mesquita, eds., 2001, Lessons from Ama- zonia: Ecology and Conservation of a Fragmented Forest, Yale University Press, New Haven, Conn., 478 pp. Birdsey, R.A., 2006, Carbon accounting rules and guidelines for the United States forest sector, Journal of Environmental Quality, 35, 1518-1524. Birdsey, R., K. Pregitzer, and A. Lucier, 2006, Forest carbon management in the United States: 1600-2100, Journal of Environmental Quality, 35, 1461-1469. Borchelt, R.E., 2001, Communicating the future, Science Communication, 23, 194-211. Bormann, B.T., R.W. Haynes, and J.R. Martin, 2007, Adaptive management of forest ecosys- tems: Did some rubber hit the road?, BioScience, 57, 186-191. Bousquet, P., and 17 coauthors, 2006, Contribution of anthropogenic and natural sources to atmospheric methane variability, Nature, 443, 439-443. Briffa, K.R., T.J. Osborn, and F.H. Schweingruber, 2004, Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: A review, Global and Planetary Change, 40, 11-26. Brown, D.G., K.M. Johnson, T.R. Loveland, and D.M. Theobald, 2005, Rural land use change in the conterminous U.S. 1950-2000, Ecological Applications, 15, 1851-1863. Burkett, V.R., D.A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemer, W. Barrow, D. Fagre, J. Baron, J. Price, J.L. Nielsen, C.D. Allen, D.L. Peterson, G. Ruggerone, and T. Doyle. 2005, Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications, Ecological Complexity, 2, 357-394. Butler, K.F., and T.M. Koontz, 2005, Theory into practice: Implementing ecosystem manage- ment objectives in the USDA Forest Service, Journal of Environmental Management, 35, 138-150. California Department of Water Resources (CDWR), 2006, Progress on Incorporating Climate Change into Management of California’s Water Resources, Technical Memorandum Report, Sacramento, Calif., 291 pp. Callahan, B., E. Miles, and D. Fluharty, 1999, Policy implications of climate forecasts for water resources management in the Pacific Northwest, Policy Sciences, 32, 269-293. Carbone, G.J., and K. Dow, 2005, Water resources and drought forecasts in South Carolina, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, February, 145-155. Cash, D.W., 2001, In order to aid in diffusing useful and practical information: Agricultural extension and boundary organizations, Science, Technology and Human Values, 26, 431-453. Cash, D.W., J.C. Borck, and A.G. Patt, 2006, Countering the loading-dock approach to link- ing science and decision making: Comparative analysis of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting systems, Science, Technology and Human Values, 31, 465-494. Cash, D.W., W.C. Clark, F. Alcock, N.M. Dickson, N. Eckley, D. Guston, J. Jäger, and R. Mitchell, 2003, Knowledge systems for sustainable development, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100, 8086-8091.

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12 PART II REFERENCES Changnon, S.A., 2004, Changing uses of climate predictions in agriculture: Implication for prediction research, providers, and users, Weather and Forecasting, 19, 606-613. Chase, T.N., R.A. Pielke, T.G.F. Kittel, R.R. Nemani, and S.W. Running, 2000, Simulated impacts of historical land cover changes on global climate in northern winter, Climate Dynamics, 16, 93-105. Chung, C.E., V. Ramanathan, D. Kim, and I.A. Podgorny, 2005, Global anthropogenic aerosol direct forcing derived from satellite and ground-based observations, Journal of Geophysi- cal Research, 110, D24207, doi:10.1029/2005JD006356. Ciais, Ph., and 32 coauthors, 2005, Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003, Nature, 437, 529-533. Claggett, P.R., C.A. Jantz, S.J. Goetz, and C. Bisland, 2004, Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: An evaluation of two land-use change models, Earth and Environmental Science, 94, 129-146. Clark, W., and L. Holliday, 2006, Linking Knowledge with Action for Sustainable Develop- ment: The Role of Program Management - Summary of a Workshop, Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 134 pp. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., 202 pp. Climate Change Science Program, 2005a, Climate Science in Support of Decisionmaking: Workshop Report, November 14-16, 2005, Available at . Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2005b, Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 200, Washington, D.C., 215 pp. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2006a, Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 200, Washington, D.C., 264 pp. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2006b, Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences, Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1, T.R. Karl, S.J. Hassol, C.D. Miller, and W.L. Murray, eds., Washington, D.C., 164 pp. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2007a, Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making, G. Morgan, ed., CCSP Synthesis Report 5.2 Draft Report, in review. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2007b, North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle, Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2, draft. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2007c, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations; and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application, Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, H.D. Jacoby, H.M. Pitcher, J.M. Reilly, R.G. Richels, E.A. Parson, V.R. Burkett, K. Fisher-Vanden, D.W. Keith, L.O. Mearns, H.M. Pitcher, C.E. Rosenzweig, and M.D. Webster, authors, Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., 260 pp. Collins, W.D., C.M. Bitz, M.L. Blackmon, G.B. Bonan, C.S. Bretherton, J.A. Carton, P. Chang, S.C. Doney, J.J. Hack, T.B. Henderson, J.T. Kiehl, W.G. Large, D.S. Mckenna, B.D. Santer, and R.D. Smith, 2006, The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3), Journal of Climate, 19, 2122-2143.

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12 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP Cox, P.M., R.A. Betts, C.D. Jones, S.A. Spall, and I.J. Totterdell, 2000, Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model, Nature, 408, 184-187. Cramer, W., and 16 coauthors, 2001, Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: Results from six dynamic global vegetation models, Global Change Biology, 7, 357-373. Crisp, D., and 30 coauthors, 2004, The orbiting carbon observatory (OCO) mission, Trace Constituents in the Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere, 34, 700-709. Curran, L.M., S. Trigg, A. McDonald, D. Astiani, Y.M. Hardiono, P. Siregar, I. Caniago, and E. Kasischke, 2004, Lowland forest loss in protected areas of Indonesian Borneo, Sci- ence, 303, 1000-1003. Dale, V.H., L.A. Joyce, S. McNulty, R.P. Neilson, M.P. Ayres, M.D. Flannigan, P.J. Hanson, L.C. Irland, A.E. Lugo, C.J. Peterson, D. Simberloff, F.J. Swanson, B.J. Stocks, and B.M. Wotton, 2001, Climate change and forest disturbances, Bioscience, 51, 723-734. Danabasoglu, G., R. Ferrari, and J.C. McWilliams, 2007, Sensitivity of an ocean general circulation model to a parameterization of near-surface eddy fluxes. Journal of Climate, in press. Davidson, E.A., and I.A. Janssens, 2006, Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change, Nature, 440, 165-173. DeFries, R.S., L. Bounoua, and G.J. Collatz, 2002, Human modification of the landscape and surface climate in the next fifty years, Global Change Biology, 8, 438-458. DeFries, R., A.J. Hansen, A. Newton, and M.C. Hansen, 2005, Isolation of protected areas in tropical forests over the last twenty years, Ecological Applications, 15, 19-26. DeFries, R., G. Asner, F. Achard, C. Justice, N. Laporte, K. Price, C. Small, and J. Townshend, 2006, Monitoring tropical deforestation for carbon credits, in Reduction of Tropical Deforestation and Climate Change Mitigation, P. Mountinho and S. Schwartzman, eds., Instituto de Pesquisa Ambientalda Amazonia, pp. 35-46. Delworth, T.L., and 41 coauthors, 2006, GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics, Journal of Climate, Special Section, 19, 643-674. Denning, A.S., ed., and 40 coauthors, 2005, Science Implementation Strategy for the North American Carbon Program, Report of the NACP Implementation Strategy Group for the U.S. Carbon Cycle Scientific Steering Group and Interagency Working Group, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo., 68 pp. Diaz, H.F., J.K. Eischeid, C. Duncan, and R.S. Bradley, 2003, Variability of freezing levels, melting season indicators, and snow cover for selected high-elevation and continental regions in the last 50 years, Climatic Change, 59, 33-52. Dilling, L., 2007a, The opportunities and responsibility for carbon cycle science in the U.S., Environmental Science and Policy, 10, 1-4. Dilling, L., 2007b, Towards science in support of decision making: Characterizing the supply of carbon cycle science, Environmental Science and Policy, 10, 48-61. Dlugokencky, E.J., S. Houweling, L. Bruhwiler, K.A. Masarie, P.M. Lang, J.B. Miller, and P.P. Tans, 2003, Atmospheric methane levels off: Temporary pause or a new steady state? Geophysical Research Letters, 30, doi:10.1029/2003/GL018126. Doney, S.C., and D.M. Glover, 2005, Recent advances in the ocean carbon system, EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Society, 86, 399-400. Doney, S.C., ed., and 18 coauthors, 2004, Ocean Carbon and Climate Change (OCCC): An Implementation Strategy for U.S. Ocean Carbon Research, Report of the Carbon Cycle Science Ocean Interim Implementation Group for the U.S. Carbon Cycle Scientific Steer- ing Group and Interagency Working Group, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo., 108 pp.

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125 PART II REFERENCES Doney, S.C., K. Lindsay, and J.K. Moore, 2003, Global ocean carbon cycle modeling, in Ocean Biogeochemistry: The Role of the Ocean Carbon Cycle in Global Change, M.J.R. Fasham, ed., IGBP Global Changes Series, Springer, Berlin, pp. 217-238. Drewnick, F., J. Schwab, J. Jayne, M. Canagaratna, D. Worsnop, and K. Demerjian, 2004, Measurement of ambient aerosol composition during the PMTACS-NY 2001 using an aerosol mass spectrometer. Part I: Mass concentrations, Aerosol Science and Technology, 38, 92-103. Easterling, D.R., G.A. Meehl, C. Parmesan, S.A. Changnon, T.R. Karl, and L.O. Mearns, 2000, Climate extremes: Observations, modeling and impacts, Science, 289, 2068-2074. Emanuel, K., 2005, Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436, 686-688. Fasham, M.J.R., ed., 2003, Ocean Biogeochemistry: The Role of the Ocean Carbon Cycle in Global Change, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Book Series, Springer- Verlag, New York, 297 pp. Feddema, J.J., K.W. Oleson, G.B. Bonan, L.O. Mearns, L.E. Buja, G.A. Meehl, and W.M. Washington, 2005, The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates, Science, 310, 1674-1678. Feely, R.A., C.L. Sabine, K. Lee, W. Berelson, J. Kleypas, V.J. Fabry, and F.J. Millero, 2004, Im- pact of anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 system in the oceans, Science, 305, 362-366. Feely, R.A., T. Takahashi, R. Wanninkhof, M.J. McPhaden, C.E. Cosca, S.C. Sutherland, and M.E. Carr, 2006, Decadal variability of the air-sea CO2 fluxes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 111, C08S90. Fogarty, M.J., and T.M. Powell, 2002, An overview of the U.S. GLOBEC Program, Oceanog- raphy, Special Issue: U.S. GLOBEC, 15, 4-12. Foley, J.A., and 18 coauthors, 2005, Global consequences of land use, Science, 309, 570-574. Follett, R.F., S.E. Samson-Liebig, J.M. Kimble, E.G. Preussner, and S.W. Waltman, 2001, Carbon sequestration under the CRP in the historic grassland soils of the USA, in Soil Management for Enhancing Carbon Sequestration, R. Lal and K. McSweeney, eds., Spe- cial SSSA Publication 57, Madison, Wisc., pp. 27-49. Forest, C.E., P.H. Stone, and A.P. Sokolov, 2007, Estimated PDF of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings, Geophysical Research Letters, in press. Fox, J., R.R. Rindfuss, S.J. Walsh, and V. Mishra, eds., 2003, People and the Environment: Approaches for Linking Household and Community Surveys to Remote Sensing and GIS, Environmental Studies Series, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Mass., 319 pp. Friedl, M.A., D.K. McIver, J.C.F. Hodges, X.Y. Zhang, D. Muchoney, A.H. Strahler, C.E. Woodcock, S. Gopal, A. Schneider, A. Cooper, A. Baccini, F. Gao, and C. Schaaf, 2002, Global land cover mapping from MODIS: Algorithms and early results, Remote Sensing of Environment, 83, 287-302. Fung, I.Y., S.C. Doney, K. Lindsay, and J. John, 2005, Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102, 11201-11206. Geoghegan, J., S.C. Villar, P. Klepeis, P.M. Mendoza, Y. Ogneva-Himmelberger, R.R. Chowd- hury, B.L. Turner II, and C. Vance, 2001, Modeling tropical deforestation in the Southern Yucatán peninsular region: Comparing survey and satellite data, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 85, 25-46. Giglio, L., I. Csiszar, and C.O. Justice, 2006, Global distribution and seasonality of active fires as observed with the Terra and Aqua MODIS sensors, Journal of Geophysical Re- search—Biogeosciences, 111, G02016, doi:10.1029/. Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), 1997, GCOS/GTOS Plan for Terrestrial Climate- Related Observations, Version 2.0. GCOS Report 32, World Meteorological Organiza- tion, Geneva, 103 pp.

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12 PART II REFERENCES Leshner, A.I., 2007, Celebrating polar science, Science, 315, 1465. Lin, J.C., C. Gerbig, S.C. Wofsy, B.C. Daube, D.M. Matross, V.Y. Chow, E. Gottlieb, A.E. Andrews, M. Pathmathevan, and J.W. Munger, 2006, What have we learned from in- tensive atmospheric sampling field programmes of CO2? Tellus Series B—Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 58, 331-343. Madronich, S., 2006, Chemical evolution of gaseous air pollutants down-wind of tropical megacities: Mexico City case study, Atmospheric Environment, 40, 6012-6018. Manning, A.C., and R.F. Keeling, 2006, Global oceanic and land biotic carbon sinks from the Scripps atmospheric oxygen flask sampling network, Tellus Series B—Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 58, 95-116. Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R.J. Andres, 2005, Global, regional, and national CO2 emis- sions, in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, Carbon Dioxide Informa- tion Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn.; available at . Marshall, C.H., R.A. Pielke, L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004, The impact of anthro- pogenic land cover change on Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather, Monthly Weather Review, 132, 28-52. Martens, D.A., W. Emmerich, J.E.T. McLain, and T.N. Johnsen, 2005, Atmospheric carbon mitigation potential of agricultural management in the southwestern USA, Soil & Tillage Research, 83, 95-119. Masson, V., F. Vimeux, J. Jouzel, V. Morgan, M. Delmotte, P. Ciais, C. Hammer, S. Johnsen, V.Y. Lipenkov, E. Mosley-Thompson, J.-R. Petit, E.J. Steig, M. Stievenard, and R. Vai- kmae, 2000, Holocene climate variability in Antarctica based on 11 ice-core isotopic records, Quaternary Research, 54, 348-358. Masson-Delmotte, V., J. Jouzel, A. Landais, M. Stievenard, S.J. Johnsen, J.W.C. White, M. Werner, A. Sveinbjornsdottir, and K. Fuhrer, 2005, GRIP deuterium excess reveals rapid and orbital-scale changes in Greenland moisture origin, Science, 309, 118-121. McNie, E., R. Pielke Jr., and D. Sarewitz, 2007, Climate science policy: Lesson from the RI- SAs, Workshop Report, August 15-17, 2005, SPARC, Boulder, Colo., 110 pp.; available at . Meehl, G.A., R. Lukas, G.N. Kiladis, K.M. Weickmann, A. Matthews, and M. Wheeler, 2001, A conceptual framework for time and space scale interactions in the climate system, Climate Dynamics, 17, 753-775. Meehl, G.A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. McAvaney, J.F.B. Mitchell, R.J. Stouffer, and K.E. Taylor, 2007, The global coupled climate multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press. Miles, E.L., A.K. Snover, L.C. Whitely Binder, E.S. Sarachik, P.W. Mote, and N. Mantua, 2006, An approach to designing a national climate service, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103, 19616-19623. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2006, Ecosystems and Human Well-Being, Condition and Trends Working Group, Vol. I, Island Press, Washington, D.C., 76 pp. Moran, E., and E. Ostrom, eds., 2005, Seeing the Forest and the Trees: Human-Environment Interactions in Forest Ecosystems, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass, 504 pp. Morehouse, B., G. Christopherson, M. Crimmins, B. Orr, J. Overpeck, T. Swetnam, and S. Yool, 2006, Modeling interactions among wildland fire, climate and society in the context of climatic variability and change in the Southwest US, in Regional Climate Change and Variability, Impacts and Responses, M. Ruth, K. Donaghy, P. Kirshen, eds., Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, pp. 58-78.

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