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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Suggested Citation:"Part II References." National Research Council. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11934.
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Part II References Acevedo, W., J.L. Taylor, D.J. Hester, C.S. Mladinich, and S. Glavac, 2006, Rates, Trends, Causes, and Consequences of Urban Land-Use Change in the United States, USGS Pro- fessional Paper 1726, Reston, Vir., 206 pp. Alexander, L.V., and 23 coauthors, 2006, Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D05109. Alley, R.B., J. Marotzke, W.D. Nordhaus, J.T. Overpeck, D.M. Peteet, R.A. Pielke Jr., R.T. Pierrehumbert, P.B. Rhines, T.F. Stocker, L.D. Talley, and J.M. Wallace, 2003, Abrupt climate change, Science, 299, 2005-2010. Alverson, K., and D.J. Baker, 2006, Taking the pulse of the oceans, Science, 314, 1657. Anthes, R.A., R.W. Corell, G. Holland, J.W. Hurrell, M.C. MacCracken, and K.E. Trenberth, 2006, Hurricanes and global warming—Potential linkages and consequences, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 623-628. Arvai, J., G. Bridge, N. Dolsak, R. Franzese, T. Koontz, A. Luginbuhl, P. Robbins, K. Richards, K. Korfmacher, B. Sohngen, J. Tansey, and A. Thompson, 2006, Adaptive management of the global climate problem: Bridging the gap between climate research and climate policy, Climatic Change, 78, 217-225. Arvidson, T., S. Goward, J. Gasch, and D. Williams, 2006, Landsat-7 long-term acquisition plan: Development and validation, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 72, 1137-1146. Asner, G.P., D.E. Knapp, E.N. Broadbent, P.J.C. Oliveira, M. Keller, and J.N. Silva, 2005, Selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon, Science, 310, 480-482. Aspinall, R., 2004, Modeling land use change with generalized linear models—A multi-model analysis of change between 1860-2000 in Gallatin Valley, Montana, Journal of Environ- mental Management, 72, 91-103. Aspinall, R., and C. Justice, eds., 2004, A Land Use and Land Cover Change Science Strat- egy, Summary of a workshop held at the Smithsonian Institution, November 19-21, 2003; available at <http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/land/LULCCworkshop19- 21nov2003.pdf>. 121

122 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP Aydin, M., W.J. DeBruyn, and E.S. Saltzman, 2002, Preindustrial atmospheric car- bonyl sulfide (OCS) from an Antarctic ice core, Geophysical Research Letters, 29, doi:10.1029/2002GL014796. Baker, D.F., and 19 coauthors, 2006, TransCom 3 inversion intercomparison: Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of regional CO2 fluxes, 1988-2003, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20, GB1002. Barford, C.C., S.C. Wofsy, M.L. Goulden, J.W. Munger, E.H. Pyle, S.P. Urbanski, L. Hutyra, S.R. Saleska, D. Fitzjarrald, and K. Moore, 2001, Factors controlling long- and short-term sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in a mid-latitude forest, Science, 294, 1688-1691. Bierkens, M.F.P., and B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, 2007, Groundwater convergence as a possible mechanism for multi-year persistence in rainfall, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L02402. Bierregaard, R.O., C. Gascon, T.E. Lovejoy, and R. Mesquita, eds., 2001, Lessons from Ama- zonia: Ecology and Conservation of a Fragmented Forest, Yale University Press, New Haven, Conn., 478 pp. Birdsey, R.A., 2006, Carbon accounting rules and guidelines for the United States forest sector, Journal of Environmental Quality, 35, 1518-1524. Birdsey, R., K. Pregitzer, and A. Lucier, 2006, Forest carbon management in the United States: 1600-2100, Journal of Environmental Quality, 35, 1461-1469. Borchelt, R.E., 2001, Communicating the future, Science Communication, 23, 194-211. Bormann, B.T., R.W. Haynes, and J.R. Martin, 2007, Adaptive management of forest ecosys- tems: Did some rubber hit the road?, BioScience, 57, 186-191. Bousquet, P., and 17 coauthors, 2006, Contribution of anthropogenic and natural sources to atmospheric methane variability, Nature, 443, 439-443. Briffa, K.R., T.J. Osborn, and F.H. Schweingruber, 2004, Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: A review, Global and Planetary Change, 40, 11-26. Brown, D.G., K.M. Johnson, T.R. Loveland, and D.M. Theobald, 2005, Rural land use change in the conterminous U.S. 1950-2000, Ecological Applications, 15, 1851-1863. Burkett, V.R., D.A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemer, W. Barrow, D. Fagre, J. Baron, J. Price, J.L. Nielsen, C.D. Allen, D.L. Peterson, G. Ruggerone, and T. Doyle. 2005, Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications, Ecological Complexity, 2, 357-394. Butler, K.F., and T.M. Koontz, 2005, Theory into practice: Implementing ecosystem manage- ment objectives in the USDA Forest Service, Journal of Environmental Management, 35, 138-150. California Department of Water Resources (CDWR), 2006, Progress on Incorporating Climate Change into Management of California’s Water Resources, Technical Memorandum Report, Sacramento, Calif., 291 pp. Callahan, B., E. Miles, and D. Fluharty, 1999, Policy implications of climate forecasts for water resources management in the Pacific Northwest, Policy Sciences, 32, 269-293. Carbone, G.J., and K. Dow, 2005, Water resources and drought forecasts in South Carolina, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, February, 145-155. Cash, D.W., 2001, In order to aid in diffusing useful and practical information: Agricultural extension and boundary organizations, Science, Technology and Human Values, 26, 431-453. Cash, D.W., J.C. Borck, and A.G. Patt, 2006, Countering the loading-dock approach to link- ing science and decision making: Comparative analysis of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting systems, Science, Technology and Human Values, 31, 465-494. Cash, D.W., W.C. Clark, F. Alcock, N.M. Dickson, N. Eckley, D. Guston, J. Jäger, and R. Mitchell, 2003, Knowledge systems for sustainable development, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100, 8086-8091.

PART II REFERENCES 123 Changnon, S.A., 2004, Changing uses of climate predictions in agriculture: Implication for prediction research, providers, and users, Weather and Forecasting, 19, 606-613. Chase, T.N., R.A. Pielke, T.G.F. Kittel, R.R. Nemani, and S.W. Running, 2000, Simulated impacts of historical land cover changes on global climate in northern winter, Climate Dynamics, 16, 93-105. Chung, C.E., V. Ramanathan, D. Kim, and I.A. Podgorny, 2005, Global anthropogenic aerosol direct forcing derived from satellite and ground-based observations, Journal of Geophysi- cal Research, 110, D24207, doi:10.1029/2005JD006356. Ciais, Ph., and 32 coauthors, 2005, Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003, Nature, 437, 529-533. Claggett, P.R., C.A. Jantz, S.J. Goetz, and C. Bisland, 2004, Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: An evaluation of two land-use change models, Earth and Environmental Science, 94, 129-146. Clark, W., and L. Holliday, 2006, Linking Knowledge with Action for Sustainable Develop- ment: The Role of Program Management - Summary of a Workshop, Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 134 pp. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., 202 pp. Climate Change Science Program, 2005a, Climate Science in Support of Decisionmaking: Workshop Report, November 14-16, 2005, Available at <http://www.climatescience. gov/workshop2005/finalreport/default.htm>. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2005b, Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006, Washington, D.C., 215 pp. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2006a, Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2007, Washington, D.C., 264 pp. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2006b, Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences, Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1, T.R. Karl, S.J. Hassol, C.D. Miller, and W.L. Murray, eds., Washington, D.C., 164 pp. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2007a, Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making, G. Morgan, ed., CCSP Synthesis Report 5.2 Draft Report, in review. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2007b, North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle, Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2, draft. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2007c, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations; and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application, Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, H.D. Jacoby, H.M. Pitcher, J.M. Reilly, R.G. Richels, E.A. Parson, V.R. Burkett, K. Fisher-Vanden, D.W. Keith, L.O. Mearns, H.M. Pitcher, C.E. Rosenzweig, and M.D. Webster, authors, Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., 260 pp. Collins, W.D., C.M. Bitz, M.L. Blackmon, G.B. Bonan, C.S. Bretherton, J.A. Carton, P. Chang, S.C. Doney, J.J. Hack, T.B. Henderson, J.T. Kiehl, W.G. Large, D.S. Mckenna, B.D. Santer, and R.D. Smith, 2006, The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3), Journal of Climate, 19, 2122-2143.

124 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP Cox, P.M., R.A. Betts, C.D. Jones, S.A. Spall, and I.J. Totterdell, 2000, Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model, Nature, 408, 184-187. Cramer, W., and 16 coauthors, 2001, Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: Results from six dynamic global vegetation models, Global Change Biology, 7, 357-373. Crisp, D., and 30 coauthors, 2004, The orbiting carbon observatory (OCO) mission, Trace Constituents in the Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere, 34, 700-709. Curran, L.M., S. Trigg, A. McDonald, D. Astiani, Y.M. Hardiono, P. Siregar, I. Caniago, and E. Kasischke, 2004, Lowland forest loss in protected areas of Indonesian Borneo, Sci- ence, 303, 1000-1003. Dale, V.H., L.A. Joyce, S. McNulty, R.P. Neilson, M.P. Ayres, M.D. Flannigan, P.J. Hanson, L.C. Irland, A.E. Lugo, C.J. Peterson, D. Simberloff, F.J. Swanson, B.J. Stocks, and B.M. Wotton, 2001, Climate change and forest disturbances, Bioscience, 51, 723-734. Danabasoglu, G., R. Ferrari, and J.C. McWilliams, 2007, Sensitivity of an ocean general circulation model to a parameterization of near-surface eddy fluxes. Journal of Climate, in press. Davidson, E.A., and I.A. Janssens, 2006, Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change, Nature, 440, 165-173. DeFries, R.S., L. Bounoua, and G.J. Collatz, 2002, Human modification of the landscape and surface climate in the next fifty years, Global Change Biology, 8, 438-458. DeFries, R., A.J. Hansen, A. Newton, and M.C. Hansen, 2005, Isolation of protected areas in tropical forests over the last twenty years, Ecological Applications, 15, 19-26. DeFries, R., G. Asner, F. Achard, C. Justice, N. Laporte, K. Price, C. Small, and J. Townshend, 2006, Monitoring tropical deforestation for carbon credits, in Reduction of Tropical Deforestation and Climate Change Mitigation, P. Mountinho and S. Schwartzman, eds., Instituto de Pesquisa Ambientalda Amazonia, pp. 35-46. Delworth, T.L., and 41 coauthors, 2006, GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics, Journal of Climate, Special Section, 19, 643-674. Denning, A.S., ed., and 40 coauthors, 2005, Science Implementation Strategy for the North American Carbon Program, Report of the NACP Implementation Strategy Group for the U.S. Carbon Cycle Scientific Steering Group and Interagency Working Group, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo., 68 pp. Diaz, H.F., J.K. Eischeid, C. Duncan, and R.S. Bradley, 2003, Variability of freezing levels, melting season indicators, and snow cover for selected high-elevation and continental regions in the last 50 years, Climatic Change, 59, 33-52. Dilling, L., 2007a, The opportunities and responsibility for carbon cycle science in the U.S., Environmental Science and Policy, 10, 1-4. Dilling, L., 2007b, Towards science in support of decision making: Characterizing the supply of carbon cycle science, Environmental Science and Policy, 10, 48-61. Dlugokencky, E.J., S. Houweling, L. Bruhwiler, K.A. Masarie, P.M. Lang, J.B. Miller, and P.P. Tans, 2003, Atmospheric methane levels off: Temporary pause or a new steady state? Geophysical Research Letters, 30, doi:10.1029/2003/GL018126. Doney, S.C., and D.M. Glover, 2005, Recent advances in the ocean carbon system, EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Society, 86, 399-400. Doney, S.C., ed., and 18 coauthors, 2004, Ocean Carbon and Climate Change (OCCC): An Implementation Strategy for U.S. Ocean Carbon Research, Report of the Carbon Cycle Science Ocean Interim Implementation Group for the U.S. Carbon Cycle Scientific Steer- ing Group and Interagency Working Group, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo., 108 pp.

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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) coordinates the efforts of 13 federal agencies to understand why climate is changing, to improve predictions about how it will change in the future, and to use that information to assess impacts on human systems and ecosystems and to better support decision making. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program is the first review of the CCSP's progress since the program was established in 2002. It lays out a method for evaluating the CCSP, and uses that method to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the entire program and to identify areas where progress has not met expectations. The committee found that the program has made good progress in documenting and understanding temperature trends and related environmental changes on a global scale, as well as in understanding the influence of human activities on these observed changes. The ability to predict future climate changes also has improved, but efforts to understand the impacts of such changes on society and analyze mitigation and adaptation strategies are still relatively immature. The program also has not met expectations in supporting decision making, studying regional impacts, and communicating with a wider group of stakeholders.

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