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Appendix C
Matrix to Evaluate CCSP Progress
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C. Uncertainty,
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A. Data and B. Understand Predictability, D. Synthesis E. Risk
Physical and Represent or Predictive and Management and
Question Quantities Processes Capabilities Assessment Decision Support
Atmospheric Composition
Q 3.1. What are the climate-relevant
chemical, microphysical, and optical
properties, and spatial and temporal
distributions, of human-caused and naturally
occurring aerosols?
Q 3.2. What are the atmospheric sources and
sinks of the greenhouse gases other than CO2
and the implications for the Earth’s energy
balance?
Q 3.3. What are the effects of regional
pollution on the global atmosphere and the
effects of global climate and chemical change
on regional air quality and atmospheric
chemical inputs to ecosystems?
Q 3.4. What are the characteristics of the
recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in
response to declining abundances of ozone-
depleting gases and increasing abundances of
greenhouse gases?
Q 3.5. What are the couplings and feedback
mechanisms among climate change, air
pollution, and ozone layer depletion, and
their relationship to the health of humans
and ecosystems?
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Climate Variability and Change
Q 4.1. To what extent can uncertainties in
model projections due to climate system
feedbacks be reduced?
Q 4.2. How can predictions of climate
variability and projections of climate change
be improved, and what are the limits of their
predictability?
Q 4.3. What is the likelihood of abrupt
changes in the climate system such as
the collapse of the ocean thermohaline
circulation, inception of a decades-long
mega-drought, or rapid melting of the major
ice sheets?
Q 4.4. How are extreme events, such as
droughts, floods, wildfires, heat waves, and
hurricanes, related to climate variability and
change?
Q 4.5. How can information on climate
variability and change be most efficiently
developed, integrated with non-climatic
knowledge, and communicated in order to
best serve societal needs?
Water Cycle
Q 5.1. What are the mechanisms and
processes responsible for the maintenance
and variability of the water cycle; are the
characteristics of the cycle changing and,
if so, to what extent are human activities
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responsible for those changes?
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C. Uncertainty,
15
A. Data and B. Understand Predictability, D. Synthesis E. Risk
Physical and Represent or Predictive and Management and
Question Quantities Processes Capabilities Assessment Decision Support
Q 5.2. How do feedback processes control
the interactions between the global water
cycle and other parts of the climate system
(e.g., carbon cycle, energy), and how are
these feedbacks changing over time?
Q 5.3. What are the key uncertainties in
seasonal-to-interannual predictions and long-
term projections of water cycle variables,
and what improvements are needed in
global and regional models to reduce these
uncertainties?
Q 5.4. What are the consequences over a
range of space and time scales of water cycle
variability and change for human societies
and ecosystems, and how do they interact
with the Earth system to affect sediment
transport and nutrient and biogeochemical
cycles?
Q 5.5. How can global water cycle
information be used to inform decision
processes in the context of changing water
resource conditions and policies?
Land Use/Land Cover Change
Q 6.1. What tools or methods are needed to
better characterize historic and current land
use and land cover attributes and dynamics?
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Q 6.2. What are the primary drivers of land-
use and land-cover change?
Q 6.3. What will land use and land cover
patterns and characteristics be 5 to 50 years
into the future?
Q 6.4. How do climate variability and
change affect land use and land cover, and
what are the potential feedbacks of changes
in land use and land cover to climate?
Q 6.5. What are the environmental, social,
economic, and human health consequences
of current and potential land use and land
cover change over the next 5 to 50 years?
Carbon Cycle
Q 7.1. What are the magnitudes and
distributions of North American carbon
sources and sinks on seasonal-to-centennial
time scales, and what are the processes
controlling their dynamics?
Q 7.2. What are the magnitudes and
distributions of ocean carbon sources and
sinks on seasonal to centennial time scales,
and what are the processes controlling their
dynamics?
Q 7.3. What are the effects on carbon
sources and sinks of past, present, and future
land use change and resource management
practices at local, regional, and global scales?
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C. Uncertainty,
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A. Data and B. Understand Predictability, D. Synthesis E. Risk
Physical and Represent or Predictive and Management and
Question Quantities Processes Capabilities Assessment Decision Support
Q 7.4. How do global terrestrial, oceanic,
and atmospheric carbon sources and sinks
change on seasonal-to-centennial time scales,
and how can this knowledge be integrated to
quantify and explain annual global carbon
budgets?
Q 7.5. What will be the future atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane,
and other carbon-containing greenhouse
gases, and how will terrestrial and marine
carbon sources and sinks change in the
future?
Q 7.6. How will the Earth system, and its
different components, respond to various
options for managing carbon in the
environment, and what scientific information
is needed for evaluating these options?
Ecosystems
Q 8.1. What are the most important
feedbacks between ecological systems and
global change (especially climate), and what
are their quantitative relationships?
Q 8.2. What are the potential consequences
of global change for ecological systems?
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Q 8.3. What are the options for sustaining
and improving ecological systems and related
goods and services, given projected global
changes?
Human Contributions and Responses
Q 9.1. What are the magnitudes,
interrelationships, and significance of
primary human drivers of and their potential
impact on global environmental change?
Q 9.2. What are the current and potential
future impacts of global environmental
variability and change on human welfare,
what factors influence the capacity of human
societies to respond to change, and how
can resilience be increased and vulnerability
reduced?
Q 9.3. How can the methods and capabilities
for societal decision making under conditions
of complexity and uncertainty about global
environmental variability and change be
enhanced?
Q 9.4. What are the potential human health
effects of global environmental change,
and what climate, socioeconomic, and
environmental information is needed to
assess the cumulative risk to health from
these effects?
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