RESEARCH AND PLANS FOR COVERAGE MEASUREMENT IN THE 2010 CENSUS: INTERIM ASSESSMENT

Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census

Robert Bell and Michael L. Cohen, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
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Research and Plans for Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census: Interim Assessment: Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census RESEARCH AND PLANS FOR COVERAGE MEASUREMENT IN THE 2010 CENSUS: INTERIM ASSESSMENT Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census Robert Bell and Michael L. Cohen, Editors Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Research and Plans for Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census: Interim Assessment: Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The project that is the subject of this report was supported by contract no. YA1323-04-CN-0006 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Census Bureau. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number SBR-0112521). Any opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number -13: 978-0-309-10875-1 -10: 0-309-10875-6 Additional copies of this report are available from The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 or (202) 334-3096; Internet, http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Suggested citation: National Research Council (2007). Research and Plans for Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census: Interim Assessment. Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census, Robert Bell and Michael L. Cohen (Eds.). Committee on National Statistics. Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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Research and Plans for Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census: Interim Assessment: Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Research and Plans for Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census: Interim Assessment: Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census PANEL ON COVERAGE EVALUATION AND CORRELATION BIAS IN THE 2010 CENSUS ROBERT BELL (Chair), AT&T Research Laboratories, Florham Park, NJ LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania RODERICK J. LITTLE, Departments of Biostatistics and Statistics, University of Michigan XIAO-LI MENG, Department of Statistics, Harvard University JEFFREY S. PASSEL, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC DONALD YLVISAKER, Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles (emeritus) ALAN M. ZASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School MICHAEL L. COHEN, Study Director DANIEL L. CORK, Senior Program Officer AGNES E. GASKIN, Senior Program Assistant BARBARA A. BAILAR, Consultant MEYER ZITTER, Consultant

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Research and Plans for Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census: Interim Assessment: Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2006-2007 WILLIAM F. EDDY (Chair), Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University KATHARINE ABRAHAM, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology ROBERT BELL, AT&T Research Laboratories, Florham Park, NJ WILLIAM DuMOUCHEL, Lincoln Technologies, Inc., Waltham, MA JOHN HALTIWANGER, Department of Economics, University of Maryland V. JOSEPH HOTZ, Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles KAREN KAFADAR, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Colorado at Denver and Health Sciences Center DOUGLAS MASSEY, Department of Sociology, Princeton University VIJAY NAIR, Department of Statistics and Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan JOSEPH NEWHOUSE, Division of Health Policy Research and Education, Harvard University SAMUEL H. PRESTON, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania KENNETH PREWITT, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University LOUISE RYAN, Department of Biostatistics, Harvard University NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin–Madison ALAN ZASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director

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Research and Plans for Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census: Interim Assessment: Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census Acknowledgments In order to develop a sufficient understanding of the Census Bureau's coverage measurement plans for 2010, the Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census met often with Census Bureau staff. The panel met three times in plenary session (August 2-3, 2004; May 2-3, 2005; and December 6-7, 2005) and four times in small groups (December 14, 2004; January 24, 2005; July 21, 2005; and February 2, 2006). The latter sessions were devoted to more focused issues. In each of these meetings, Census Bureau staff made presentations that described the results of current research efforts and directions for further work. In addition, the Census Bureau made available to the panel staff (as sworn Census Bureau agents) data from the 2000 Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation for further investigation of the logistic regression models that the Census Bureau may use in 2010 to replace poststratification in the estimation of net coverage error. The panel wishes to thank the many people who contributed to our work. The initial idea for the study came from Hermann Habermann, then deputy director of the Census Bureau. Other Census Bureau personnel were also instrumental in providing assistance. The contracting officer for this study was Philip Gbur, whose efforts should serve as a model of how best to provide for smooth communications between a National Research Council (NRC) panel and its sponsor. Donna Kostanich and her staff gave excellent summary presentations on the status of their various research efforts. Also, along with Philip Gbur, Donna Kostanich established a friendly, collegial environment between her staff and the panel. We thank the following coverage measurement staff for their presentations: Tamara Adams, Paul Livermore Auer, William Bell, Pete Davis, James Farber, Gregg Diffendal, Rick Griffin, Tom Mule, Mary Mulry, Sally Obenski, Doug Olson, Robin Pennington, Preston J. Waite, and David Whitford. The Census Bureau also provided on-site access to the A.C.E. Research Database. Huilin Li (University of Maryland) carried out many difficult computations on this database at the direction of the panel and staff, and we thank her for her patience and expertise. As consultant to the panel, Barbara Bailar provided important insights on the history of coverage measurement and its implications for 2010. Also, Roger Tourangeau, a member of a sister NRC panel on residence rules in the decennial census, assisted the panel in learning about probes for alternative residences on both the coverage follow-up interview and the census coverage measurement interview.

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Research and Plans for Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census: Interim Assessment: Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census The panel is indebted to Michael Cohen, who served as primary study director to the panel and who drafted much of the report in response to the panel’s direction. Christine McShane provided expert technical editing of the draft report. Finally, Christine Chen, Lance Hunter, and Agnes Gaskin provided excellent administrative support for the panel. It has been a pleasure overseeing this very talented and collaborative panel. In particular, panel member Alan Zaslavsky stands out for his detailed rewriting and editing of a preliminary draft of this report. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Eugene Ericksen, Department of Sociology, Temple University; David McMillen, External Affairs Liaison’s Office, National Archives and Records Administration, Washington, DC; Samuel H. Preston, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania; Keith Rust, Westat, Inc., Rockville, MD; Bruce D. Spencer, Department of Statistics, Northwestern University; and Martin T. Wells, Department of Social Statistics, Cornell University. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of the report was overseen by Henry Riecken, Professor of Behavioral Sciences, Emeritus, University of Pennsylvania, and Ingram Olkin, Department of Statistics, Stanford University. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report, however, rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.

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Research and Plans for Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census: Interim Assessment: Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census Contents     Executive Summary     1   Introduction     2   Back to Basics: What Are Census Errors and How Can They Be Measured?     3   Assessment of the Census Bureau’s Current Research Program for Coverage Evaluation In 2010     4   Additional Coverage Evaluation Research Useful for Census Error Reduction         References         Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff