Therefore, the focus of coverage measurement in the 2010 census will be on exploring the four basic coverage errors: omissions, erroneous enumerations, duplications, and enumerations in the wrong place. In addition, the overall census design for 2010 is considerably different from that of 2000, the primary differences being that (1) the census long form will be eliminated, (2) the field enumerators will use hand-held computing devices for nonresponse follow-up, (3) the Master Address File/TIGER system will be updated and improved, (4) there will be a major effort to identify duplicate counts in the census and remove them from the final tabulations—this effort includes the collection of data on alternate residences and a national data search for duplicates, and (5) the coverage follow-up interview will be expanded to try to identify and rectify possible omissions from the census and enumerations in the wrong place. Despite these changes to the coverage measurement goals and the census itself, the Census Bureau plans to rely again on a postenumeration survey to collect data for coverage measurement and on dual-systems estimation to estimate net coverage error. Simultaneously adjusting to the new goals for coverage measurement and to a new census design raises a number of complex problems. The Census Bureau has requested the assistance of the National Academies to review and critique their test and research efforts to plan the coverage measurement program in 2010.


This interim report of the Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census describes and reviews the research activities carried out to date by the Census Bureau in developing the coverage measurement program for 2010. The panel will provide more direction in its final report on several of the technical challenges facing the Census Bureau raised by these research activities in working toward 2010. Chapter 4 provides a list of the topics the panel hopes to address. Those of particular importance are (a) the data to save in 2010 to support the various coverage measurement models, (b) random effects modeling for small area estimation, (c) treatment of nondata-defined cases in logistic regression, (d) allowable covariates in the logistic regression models for correct enumeration status and for match status, (e) sample design for the postenumeration survey in 2010, (f) improvements in demographic analysis in 2010, (g) the products to use to inform about census component coverage error, and (h) very generally, how to best operate a feedback loop for census improvement. In addition, the panel proposes an analytic framework that may suggest additional research activities, which may also be expanded in the final report.

THE 2010 COVERAGE MEASUREMENT RESEARCH PROGRAM

The Census Bureau has initiated a number of important projects in response to the need to redesign coverage measurement and related activities. These research activities include:

  1. Design of the coverage measurement program for the 2006 census test to collect information on various operational parameters to accommodate the changing goals of coverage measurement and to assess the potential for



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