Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate”

Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate” Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate” Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3 Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate” THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report is funded in part by a contract from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under grant number DG133R-04-CQ-009, TO#27. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or any of its subagencies. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-11004-4 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-11004-1 Copies of this report are available from the program office: Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3512 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate” THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate” COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM’S SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.3 JOHN GYAKUM (Co-Chair), McGill University, Montreal, Quebec HUGH WILLOUGHBY (Co-Chair), Florida International University, Miami CORTIS COOPER, Chevron, San Ramon, California MICHAEL J. HAYES, University of Nebraska, Lincoln GREGORY JENKINS, Howard University, Washington, DC DAVID KAROLY, University of Oklahoma, Norman RICHARD ROTUNNO, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado CLAUDIA TEBALDI, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado and Visiting Scientist, Stanford University, Stanford, California NRC Staff CURTIS H. MARSHALL, Study Director KATHERINE WELLER, Senior Program Assistant

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate” BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND (Chair), University of California, Irvine M. JOAN ALEXANDER, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, Colorado MICHAEL L. BENDER, Princeton University, New Jersey ROSINA M. BIERBAUM, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor CAROL ANNE CLAYSON, Florida State University, Tallahassee WALTER F. DABBERDT, Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado KERRY A. EMANUEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge DENNIS L. HARTMANN, University of Washington, Seattle PETER R. LEAVITT, Weather Information, Inc., Newton, Massachusetts VERNON R. MORRIS, Howard University, Washington, DC THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Ex Officio Members ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR., University of Maryland, College Park NRC Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director IAN KRAUCUNAS, Program Officer CURTIS H. MARSHALL, Program Officer CLAUDIA MENGELT, Program Officer ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Research Associate LEAH PROBST, Research Associate ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant KATHERINE WELLER, Senior Program Assistant DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Coordinator SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate” Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Walter F. Dabberdt, Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado Jennifer Phillips, Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, New York Robert Maddox, University of Arizona, Tucson Roland Madden, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California John Molinari, The State University of New York, Albany Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by George L. Frederick, Falcon Consultants LLC, Georgetown, Texas. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate” Contents     SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   2 2   MAJOR COMMENTS   4 3   REVIEW OF INDIVIDUAL SECTIONS   7      Abstract   7      Preface   8      Executive Summary   9      Chapter 1      12      Chapter 2      14      Chapter 3      19      Chapter 4      23     REFERENCES   26     APPENDIXES   27      A  CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS   29      B  PROSPECTUS FOR SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.3   35      C  BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS AND STAFF   45      D  NRC COMMITTEE STATEMENT OF TASK   49

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