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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×

Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate”

Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report is funded in part by a contract from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under grant number DG133R-04-CQ-009, TO#27. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or any of its subagencies.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-11004-4

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-11004-1

Copies of this report are available from the program office:

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

500 Fifth Street, N.W.

Washington, DC 20001

(202) 334-3512

Additional copies of this report are available from the

National Academies Press,

500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu

Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×

COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM’S SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.3

JOHN GYAKUM (Co-Chair),

McGill University, Montreal, Quebec

HUGH WILLOUGHBY (Co-Chair),

Florida International University, Miami

CORTIS COOPER, Chevron,

San Ramon, California

MICHAEL J. HAYES,

University of Nebraska, Lincoln

GREGORY JENKINS,

Howard University, Washington, DC

DAVID KAROLY,

University of Oklahoma, Norman

RICHARD ROTUNNO,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

CLAUDIA TEBALDI,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado and Visiting Scientist, Stanford University, Stanford, California

NRC Staff

CURTIS H. MARSHALL, Study Director

KATHERINE WELLER, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND (Chair),

University of California, Irvine

M. JOAN ALEXANDER,

NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, Colorado

MICHAEL L. BENDER,

Princeton University, New Jersey

ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

CAROL ANNE CLAYSON,

Florida State University, Tallahassee

WALTER F. DABBERDT,

Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado

KERRY A. EMANUEL,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

DENNIS L. HARTMANN,

University of Washington, Seattle

PETER R. LEAVITT,

Weather Information, Inc., Newton, Massachusetts

VERNON R. MORRIS,

Howard University, Washington, DC

THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,

Colorado State University, Fort Collins

Ex Officio Members

ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR.,

University of Maryland, College Park

NRC Staff

CHRIS ELFRING, Director

IAN KRAUCUNAS, Program Officer

CURTIS H. MARSHALL, Program Officer

CLAUDIA MENGELT, Program Officer

ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Research Associate

LEAH PROBST, Research Associate

ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant

KATHERINE WELLER, Senior Program Assistant

DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Coordinator

SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×

Acknowledgments

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:


Walter F. Dabberdt, Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado

Jennifer Phillips, Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, New York

Robert Maddox, University of Arizona, Tucson

Roland Madden, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

John Molinari, The State University of New York, Albany


Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by George L. Frederick, Falcon Consultants LLC, Georgetown, Texas. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×

Contents

 

 

SUMMARY

 

1

1

 

INTRODUCTION

 

2

2

 

MAJOR COMMENTS

 

4

3

 

REVIEW OF INDIVIDUAL SECTIONS

 

7

   

 Abstract

 

7

   

 Preface

 

8

   

 Executive Summary

 

9

   

 Chapter 1   

 

12

   

 Chapter 2   

 

14

   

 Chapter 3   

 

19

   

 Chapter 4   

 

23

 

 

REFERENCES

 

26

 

 

APPENDIXES

 

27

   

 A  CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS

 

29

   

 B  PROSPECTUS FOR SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.3

 

35

   

 C  BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS AND STAFF

 

45

   

 D  NRC COMMITTEE STATEMENT OF TASK

 

49

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×
Page R3
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×
Page R4
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×
Page R5
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×
Page R6
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×
Page R7
Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×
Page R8
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×
Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2007. Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate". Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11973.
×
Page R10
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