TABLE 2.6 Comparison of Projections for World Coal Demand by Different Organizations

 

Growth Rate (% per year) for the Indicated Period

World Coal Demand (Mtoe) in Indicated Year

Scenario

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030

2000

2010

2020

2030

WETO

2.07

2.42

2.48

2,389

2,931

3,723

4,757

DOE

1.88

1.50

 

 

2,878

3,340

 

IEA

1.74

1.74

 

 

2,837

3,370

 

WEC A2

2.13

2.31

2.22

 

2,949

3,707

4,616

NOTE: None of these scenarios include a constraint on future CO2 emissions.

SOURCE: European Commission, World energy, technology and climate policy outlook-2030; Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg, 2003 (EC, 2003).

but would increase by only 13 percent in the carbon abatement case. The WETO projection for primary coal production in North America in 2030 is 1,011 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent), representing a growth rate of 1.7 percent per annum from 2010 to 2030 in the absence of a carbon constraint.

The European Commission report compares the WETO projections to those made by the EIA, IEA, and WEC (using the WEC high-growth, coal-intensive scenario A2). The projections from the four agencies do not vary significantly (Table 2.6), and the two that project to 2030 both indicate a doubling of worldwide coal utilization by that time. There would be a much greater difference in projected coal consumption estimates if scenarios with carbon abatement had been included.

Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has examined a broad range of world energy scenarios (IPCC, 2001) and used selected scenarios in a recent evaluation of CCS and renewable energy sources as a potential climate change mitigation measure for fossil fuel power plants and other major CO2 sources (IPCC, 2005). IPCC comparison of results from two large-scale models used to project future world energy trends shows that both models project future coal use to remain relatively constant, with increasing use of CCS over time, for a policy scenario aimed at stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 550 parts per million by volume (approximately twice the pre-industrial level) by the end of this century (IPCC, 2005).

HOW WELL DO MODELS PREDICT REALITY?

Comparisons of actual coal production in the United States with projections produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration illustrate the uncer-



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