NASA’s BEYOND EINSTEIN PROGRAM

AN ARCHITECTURE FOR IMPLEMENTATION

Committee on NASA’s Beyond Einstein Program: An Architecture for Implementation

Space Studies Board and

Board on Physics and Astronomy

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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NASA’s BEYOND EINSTEIN PROGRAM AN ARCHITECTURE FOR IMPLEMENTATION Committee on NASA’s Beyond Einstein Program: An Architecture for Implementation Space Studies Board and Board on Physics and Astronomy Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study is based on work supported by the Contract NASW-010001 between the Na- tional Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-11162-1 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-11162-5 Cover:  Cover design by Penny E. Margolskee. The top half shows an image of the Hubble Ultra Deep Field—a view of nearly 10,000 galaxies—the deepest visible-light image of the cosmos; image courtesy of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the European Space Agency, S. Beckwith (Space Telescope Science Institute), and the Hubble Ultra Deep Field Team. Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examina- tion of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the Na- tional Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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OTHER REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD An Astrobiology Strategy for the Exploration of Mars (SSB with the Board on Life Sciences, 2007) Building a Better NASA Workforce: Meeting the Workforce Needs for the National Vision for Space Exploration (SSB with the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2007) Decadal Science Strategy Surveys: Report of a Workshop (2007) Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (2007) Exploring Organic Environments in the Solar System (SSB with the Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology, 2007) The Limits of Organic Life in Planetary Systems (SSB with the Board on Life Sciences, 2007) A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Astrophysics Program (SSB with Board on Physics and Astronomy, 2007) Portals to the Universe: The NASA Astronomy Science Centers (2007) The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon: Final Report (2007) An Assessment of Balance in NASA’s Science Programs (2006) Assessment of NASA’s Mars Architecture 2007-2016 (2006) Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Venus Missions: Letter Report (2006) Distributed Arrays of Small Instruments for Solar-Terrestrial Research: Report of a Workshop (2006) Issues Affecting the Future of the U.S. Space Science and Engineering Workforce: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2006) Review of NASA’s 2006 Draft Science Plan: Letter Report (2006) The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon⎯Interim Report (2006) Space Radiation Hazards and the Vision for Space Exploration (2006) OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY Condensed-Matter and Materials Physics: The Science of the World Around Us (2007) Controlling the Quantum World: The Science of Atoms, Molecules, and Photons (2007) Handbook of Frequency Allocations and Spectrum Protection for Scientific Uses (2007) The National Science Foundation’s Materials Research Science and Engineering Center Program: Looking Back, Moving Forward (BPA with Board on Science Education, 2007) Plasma Science: Advancing Knowledge in the National Interest (2007) Scientific Opportunities with a Rare-Isotope Facility in the United States (2007) Instrumentation for a Better Tomorrow: Proceedings of a Symposium in Honor of Arnold O. Beckman (2006) Midsize Facilities: The Infrastructure for Materials Research (2006) Revealing the Hidden Nature of Space and Time: Charting the Course for Elementary Particle Physics (2006) Limited copies of these reports are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board and Board on Physics and Astronomy National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001 NOTE: Listed according to year of approval for release, which in some cases precedes the year of publication. iv

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COMMITTEE ON NASA’S BEYOND EINSTEIN PROGRAM: AN ARCHITECTURE FOR IMPLEMENTATION CHARLES F. KENNEL, University of California, San Diego, Co-Chair JOSEPH H. ROTHENBERG, Universal Space Network, Co-Chair ERIC G. ADELBERGER, University of Washington WILLIAM B. ADKINS, Adkins Strategies, LLC THOMAS APPELQUIST, Yale University JAMES S. BARROWMAN, Independent Consultant DAVID A. BEARDEN, The Aerospace Corporation MARK DEVLIN, University of Pennsylvania JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation KARL GEBHARDT, University of Texas at Austin WILLIAM C. GIBSON, Southwest Research Institute FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology ANDREW J. LANKFORD, University of California, Irvine DENNIS McCARTHY, Independent Consultant STEPHAN S. MEYER, University of Chicago JOEL R. PRIMACK, University of California, Santa Cruz LISA J. RANDALL, Harvard University CRAIG L. SARAZIN, University of Virginia JAMES S. ULVESTAD, National Radio Astronomy Observatory CLIFFORD M. WILL, Washington University MICHAEL S. WITHERELL, University of California, Santa Barbara EDWARD L. WRIGHT, University of California, Los Angeles Staff BRIAN D. DEWHURST, Study Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy SANDRA J. GRAHAM, Study Director, Space Studies Board (from January 29, 2007) PAMELA L. WHITNEY, Study Director, Space Studies Board (until January 28, 2007) VICTORIA SWISHER, Research Associate, Space Studies Board CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Program Associate, Space Studies Board CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Assistant Editor, Space Studies Board v

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD LENNARD A. FISK, University of Michigan, Chair A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired), Vice Chair SPIRO K. ANTIOCHOS, Naval Research Laboratory DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering CHARLES L. BENNETT, Johns Hopkins University ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Los Alamos National Laboratory ALAN DRESSLER, The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution JACK D. FELLOWS, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology TAMARA E. JERNIGAN, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory KLAUS KEIL, University of Hawaii MOLLY MACAULEY, Resources for the Future BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire KENNETH H. NEALSON, University of Southern California JAMES PAWELCZYK, Pennsylvania State University SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of California, Irvine RICHARD H. TRULY, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (retired) JOAN VERNIKOS, Thirdage, LLC JOSEPH F. VEVERKA, Cornell University WARREN M. WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research CHARLES E. WOODWARD, University of Minnesota GARY P. ZANK, University of California, Riverside MARCIA S. SMITH, Director vi

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BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY ANNEILA I. SARGENT, California Institute of Technology, Chair MARC A. KASTNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Vice Chair JOANNA AIZENBERG, Lucent Technologies JONATHAN BAGGER, Johns Hopkins University JAMES E. BRAU, University of Oregon PHILIP H. BUCKSBAUM, Stanford University ADAM S. BURROWS, University of Arizona PATRICK L. COLESTOCK, Los Alamos National Laboratory RONALD C. DAVIDSON, Princeton University ANDREA M. GHEZ, University of California, Los Angeles PETER F. GREEN, University of Michigan LAURA H. GREENE, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign WICK C. HAXTON, University of Washington JOSEPH HEZIR, EOP Group, Inc. ALLAN H. MacDONALD, University of Texas HOMER A. NEAL, University of Michigan JOSE N. ONUCHIC, University of California, San Diego WILLIAM D. PHILLIPS, National Institute of Standards and Technology CHARLES V. SHANK, Howard Hughes Medical Institute THOMAS N. THEIS, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center MICHAEL S. TURNER, University of Chicago C. MEGAN URRY, Yale University DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director vii

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Acknowledgments This report is the product of a large amount of work carried out by many people. The Committee on NASA’s Beyond Einstein Program: An Architecture for Implementation extends its thanks and appreciation to all who participated in this endeavor; it would be impossible to name each of them individually. The committee thanks the speakers who made formal presentations at each of its meetings; their presentations and the ensuing discussions were extremely informative and had a significant impact on the committee’s delibera- tions. The committee is especially appreciative of the time and efforts invested by the mission teams in responding to its Request for Information and answering further questions from the committee: ADEPT (Charles Bennett), CASTER (Mark McConnell), CIP (Gary Melnick), CMBPol (Gary Hinshaw), Con-X (Harvey Tananbaum), DESTINY (Tod Lauer), EPIC-F (James Bock), EPIC-I (Peter Timbie), EXIST (Josh Grindlay), LISA (Thomas Prince), and SNAP (Saul Perlmutter and Michael Levi). The committee is also appreciative of the hard work done by the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), an independent contractor hired to assist the committee in the cost-estimation process. SAIC provided the committee with cost-estimating expertise and tools for the assessment of probable cost ranges for the candidate Beyond Einstein missions, dedicating tremendous efforts to completing the cost estimates for the report. The com- mittee particularly acknowledges with thanks the hard work of Joseph Hamaker and Frank Curran in leading the SAIC team throughout this process. Finally, the committee expresses thanks to the European Space Agency (ESA) and to ESA’s Director of Sci- ence, David Southwood, who at the invitation of the committee took the time to come to the United States and provide important insight into ESA’s support of LISA. ix

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional stan- dards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Barry C. Barish, California Institute of Technology, Steven J. Battel, Battel Engineering, Mitchell C. Begelman, University of Colorado, Neil Brandt, Pennsylvania State University, John E. Carlstrom, University of Chicago, Marc Davis, University of California, Berkeley, Lennard A. Fisk, University of Michigan, Riccardo Giacconi, Johns Hopkins University, David J. Gross, University of California, Santa Barbara, Jeremy N. Kasdin, Princeton University, J. Patrick Looney, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Anneila I. Sargent, California Institute of Technology, and A. Thomas Young, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired). Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Martha P. Haynes, Cornell University, and Kenneth H. Keller, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. x

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 9 2 SCIENCE IMPACT 15 3 MISSION READINESS AND COST ASSESSMENT 66 4 POLICY ISSUES 115 5 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 118 APPENDIXES A Letter of Request 135 B Background and Statement of Task 137 C Input from the Broader Astronomy and Astrophysics Community 139 D List of Briefings to the Committee 143 E Request for Information to Mission Teams 146 F Mission Teams’ Technology Funding Inputs to the Committee 152 G Acronyms 154 H Glossary 158 I Biographies of Committee Members and Staff 168 xi

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