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Energy and Climate: Studies in Geophysics (1977)

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. "9. Modeling and Predictability." Energy and Climate: Studies in Geophysics. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1977.

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Studies in Geophysics: Energy and Climate

For the energy question in particular, the most immediately critical outstanding problems are ocean-atmosphere coupling, cryospheric dynamics, cloud feedback, and cloud-aerosol interaction. However, there is still a general requirement for refinement and sophistication of all model elements. Moreover, the transitivity properties of the climatic system must be better understood in order to design meaningful and convincing sensitivity experiments. At the moment, it appears that experiments on the effects of heat sources will be easiest to undertake. CO2 problems will be more difficult, and those due to particulates the most difficult.

As was pointed out in connection with the earlier discussion of cloud reaction and ocean-continent contrast, the interhemisphexic-interseasonal differences are of the magnitude of significant climatic change. A detailed definition and understanding of the contemporary seasonal and interannual-interhemispheric variability is essential.

The details of an orderly program of research to cover all of these needs, as well as those in general for a broad range of climatic sensitivity and stability questions, have be en addressed authoritatively by the study conference in Sweden (GPS No. 16,1975), as was indicated earlier.

The international Joint GARP Organizing Committee meeting in Budapest (JOC X, 1975) initiated a plan to implement accelerated development. It takes the form of a decade of definitive global observation and of modeling research in the 1980’s. Between now and then, a great deal of preparatory work will be required.

There seems to be no clear shortcut for a careful and responsible attack on the problem. We should be wary of premature, hasty, and sweeping conclusions at this time.

REFERENCES

Bryan, K., S. Manabe, and R. C. Pacanowski (1975). A global ocean-atmosphere climate model: Part II. The oceanic circulation, J. Phys. Oceanog. 5, 30.

GPS No, 16 (1975). The Physical Basis of Climate and Climate Modeling, Report of the Study Conference on the Physical Basis of Climate and Climate Modeling, Stockholm, Sweden, 1974, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.

JOC X (1975). Report of the Tenth Session of the Joint Organizing Committee for GARP, Budapest, November 1974, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.

Mahlman, J. D. (1973). A three-dimensional stratospheric point-source tracer experiment and its implications for dispersion of effluent from a fleet of supersonic aircraft, in Proceedings of AIAA/AMS International Conference on the Environmental Impact of Aerospace Operations in the High Atmosphere, Denver, Colo., June 11–13, 1973.

Manabe, S. (1970). Cloudiness and the radiative, convective equilibrium, in Global Effects of Environmental Pollution, Proceedings of AAAS Air Pollution Session, Dallas, Tex., Dec. 1968, S. F. Singer, ed., pp. 156–157.

Manabe, S., and K. Bryan (1969). Climate calculations with a combined ocean-atmosphere model, J. Atmos. Sci. 26, 786.

Manabe, S., and R. T. Wetherald (1975). The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model, J. Atmos. Sci. 32, 3.

Manabe, S., D. G. Hahn, and J. L. Holloway, Jr. (1974). The seasonal variation of the tropical circulation as simulated by a global model of the atmosphere, J. Atmos. Sci. 31, 43.

Manabe, S., K. Bryan, and M. J. Spelman (1975). A global ocean-atmosphere climate model: Part I. The atmospheric circulation, J. Phys. Oceanog. 5, 3.

Matthews, W, H., W. W. Kellogg, and G. D. Robinson, eds. (1971). Inadvertent Climate Modification, Report of the Study of Man’s Impact on Climate (SMIC), The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.

Namias, J. (1970). Macroscale variations in sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific, J. Geophys. Res. 75, 565.

Newell, R. E. (1970). Stratospheric temperature change from the Mt. Agung volcanic eruption of 1963, J. Atmos. Sci. 27, 977.

Smagorinsky, J. (1960). On the dynamical prediction of large-scale condensation by numerical methods, in Physics of Precipitation, Monograph No. 5, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 71–78.

Smagorinsky, J. (1974). Global atmospheric modeling and the numerical simulation of climate, in Weather and Climate Modification, W. N. Hess, ed., John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, pp. 633–686.

US. Domestic Council (1974). A United States Climate Program, Environmental Resources Committee, Subcommittee on Climate Change, Dec.

Van Loon, H., J. J. Taljaard, T. Sasamori, J. London, D. V. Hoyt, K. Labitzke, and C. W. Newton (1972). Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere, Meteorological Monographs, Vol. 13, No. 35, Nov.

Vonder Haar, T. H., and A. H. Oort (1973). New estimate of annual poleward energy transport by northern hemisphere oceans, J. Phys, Oceanog. 3, 169,

Washington, W. M. (1972). Numerical climatic-change experiments: The effect of man’s production of thermal energy, J. Appl. Meteorol. 11, 768.

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