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Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (2008)

Chapter: Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

Appendix C
Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop

Mitigation Approaches to Address Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals
Joint NASA-NOAA Draft Study for OSTP (Phase II) June 19, 2007
Executive Summary [p. 2]

  • OSTP requested NOAA and NASA to provide:

    • An analysis of possible mitigation options of the climate impacts of the NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification through 2026

    • An assessment of the potential costs of these options

  • Primary goal: Ensure continuity of long-term climate records

  • NOAA and NASA analyzed the following options:

    • Remanifesting the climate sensors on NPOESS spacecraft

    • Placing sensors on currently planned non-NPOESS spacecraft

    • Developing new gap-filling climate satellite missions

    • Partnering opportunities

  • Key results:

    • Work in progress: still assessing options

    • Multiple options exist to mitigate the loss of sensors from NPOESS

    • Options consistent with Decadal Survey recommendations

    • Partnering for altimetry could provide significant cost savings

NOTE: B. Cramer, NASA Headquarters, “Mitigation Approaches to Address Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals. Joint NASA-NOAA Draft Study for OSTP (Phase II),” presentation to the Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft Workshop, June 19, 2007, available at http://www7.nationalacademies.org/ssb/SSB_NPOESS2007_Presentations.html. The presentation as delivered at the workshop has been reformatted somewhat for publication. Page numbers in brackets refer to the original presentation. All information presented is pre-decisional, and assessments involve preliminary rough-order-of-magnitude cost estimates only.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

Climate Sensor Impact Assessment (summarized from January 2007 NASA/NOAA Joint Assessment) [pp. 3-4]

  • Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS)

    • Essential to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change

    • Would continue 25+ year long data record

  • Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS)

    • Continuously monitors the Earth’s radiation budget to identify subtle long-term shifts related to climate change

    • Would continue 21+ year long data record

  • Ocean Altimeter (ALT)

    • Monitors sea level

    • Would continue 15+ year long data record

  • Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) – Limb Subsystem

    • Measures the vertical distribution of stratospheric ozone to monitor and understand the ozone recovery resulting from the Montreal Protocol

    • Would continue 23+ year long data record

  • Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS)

    • Measures the global distribution of aerosols and their impact on the Earth’s energy balance, clouds, and precipitation

  • Conical Scanning Microwave Imager (CMIS) – Reduced Capability

    • Provides sea surface temperatures, sea ice and snow cover extents, soil moisture, ocean surface wind speed, water vapor, and precipitation rates even in the presence of heavy cloud cover

    • Continuous records date back to 1987

  • Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) – Reduced Coverage (Absent from 0930 Orbit)

    • Multi-spectral imagers sample the spectral signatures of features on or near the Earth’s surface important to climate science

    • For over three decades, scientists have depended on this imagery for a wide variety of weather and climate applications

  • Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS)/Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) – Reduced Coverage (Absent from 0530 Orbit)

    • No mitigation recommended for climate science

  • Space Environment Sensor Suite (SESS)

    • Not considered here

Development of Mitigation Options [p. 5]

  • Multiple options exist to mitigate the loss of sensors from NPOESS

  • Developed options using following criteria:

    • Minimize risk to measurement continuity

      • First priority for existing climate data records

    • Minimize risk to existing programs

    • Cost effectiveness

      • Economies of scale

      • Leverage planned missions and sensors including partnerships with other space agencies

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

Potential Mitigation Options [p. 6]

  • Option 1: NPOESS + Gap Filler Climate Satellite

  • Option 2: Sequential Climate Satellites

  • Option 3: Sequential Climate Satellites w/TSIS Redundancy

  • Option 4: Sequential Climate Satellites w/TSIS Redundancy & Operational Risk Reduction

  • These options also include free-flyer altimetry missions and climate data record science support

FIGURE [C.1] Range of Options Examined for Climate Data Continuity. [p. 7]

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

FIGURE [C.2] Initial Recommendation from January 2007 Joint Assessment. [p. 8]

NOTES:

• VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4

• AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit

• CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2

FIGURE [C.3] Option 1. NPOESS + Climate Satellite. [p. 9]

NOTES:

• The manifest for C1 is frozen based on technical risk considerations

• VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4

• AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit

• CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

FIGURE [C.4] Option 1. Continuity Timeline. NPOESS + Climate Satellite. [p. 10]

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

FIGURE [C.5] Option 2. Sequential Climate Satellites. [p. 11]

NOTES:

• The manifest for C1 is frozen based on technical risk considerations

• VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4

• AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit

• CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

FIGURE [C.6] Option 2. Continuity Timeline. Sequential Climate Satellites. [p. 12]

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

FIGURE [C.7] Option 3 and 4. Sequential Climate Satellites + TSIS Redundancy. [p. 13]

NOTES:

• The manifest for C1 is frozen based on technical risk considerations

• VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4

• AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit

• CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

FIGURE [C.8] Option 3 and 4. Continuity Timeline. Sequential Climate Satellites + TSIS Redundancy. [p. 14]

Current Studies [p. 15]

  • Work in progress: still exploring options

  • NPOESS remanifest

    • Assessed 2 options for earliest return to NPOESS flights (C2-C4)

      • NASA procures and delivers sensors to NPOESS as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE)

      • The Integrated Program Office (IPO) procures sensors via current prime contractor overseeing subcontracted instrument vendors

  • Altimetry

    • Altimetry capability explored as free-flying Jason follow-on and as advanced altimeter missions

  • Climate satellite missions

    • Examined 2 research-grade missions

      • Additionally explored TSIS (total and spectral) on Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and International Space Station (ISS)

      • Currently assessing CERES on NPP

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
  • Examined 2 operational-grade missions

    • Used sensor analysis from NASA plus spacecraft development analysis from NOAA Polar Extended Mission study (2006)

Climate Data Record (CDR) Science Support [p. 16]

  • Includes development, production, reprocessing, stewardship, and distribution

  • Assumes data from all NPOESS certified sensors and mitigation sensors / sources

  • Covers about 30 Climate Change Science Program essential climate variables

  • Will be covered in more detail in following presentation

Free Flyer Climate Satellite [p. 17]

  • Would fly in formation with NPOESS PM to provide imager data

  • Two options were examined:

    • Research spacecraft

      • Planned 5-year mission

      • Single string development with selective redundancy

      • Inexpensive, non-standard launch vehicle

      • Ground segment leverages existing systems.

    • Operational spacecraft

      • Planned 7-year mission with additional redundancy

      • Standard launch vehicle

      • Additional investment in ground segment

  • Current cost estimate range for a 3-sensor satellite is approximately $700M-$1100M

    • CDR Science Support is an additional $300M-$450M

Altimetry Options [p. 18]

  • NPOESS sun-synchronous orbits are NOT ideal for precision altimetry

  • Flight of an altimeter on NPOESS is NOT recommended

  • For this analysis, “free flyer” satellites in the NOAA / EUMETSAT JASON series are assumed

    • Three satellites beyond JASON 2 required to provide coverage to 2026

    • Costs estimated for JASON 3, 4, and 5

    • Advanced altimeter costs also estimated

      • May replace JASON class missions starting with JASON 4

  • Independent of this study, U.S. Navy is working with the IPO to develop costs and options to procure an operational oceanography radar altimeter

  • Current total cost estimate for a series of 3 missions ranges from approximately $1.5B-$2.1B

    • CDR Science Support is an additional ~$200M

    • Current cost estimate for a single JASON follow-on is approximately $470M with the potential for 50/50 cost sharing with partners

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

TABLE Climate Goal Partnering Opportunities (Preliminary) [p. 19]

 

Partner

Sensor or Capability

Timeframe

Role

Increasing Potential →

EUMETSAT

Jason-3

2013-2018

Mitigate

NASA/Navy

Adv. Altimeter

TBD

Mitigate

ESA/JAXA (Earthcare)

APS/ERBS-like

2010-20xx

Mitigate

ESA GMES Sentinel 3

Altimeter

 

Complement

Navy (NPOESS)

Altimeter (Op)

2016-2026

Complement

Navy (DoD Space Test Program)

Altimeter (Op)

 

Complement

CNES Megha-Tropiques

ERBS-like

 

Complement

Chinese SOA (HY series)

Altimeter

 

Mitigate

Brazilian Space Agency (Amazonia)

Flight Opportunity

2010/2015

Accommodation

EUMETSAT (MSG)

ERBS-like

on-orbit

Complement

Chinese Met. Agency (FY series)

ERBS-like

 

Mitigate

ESA PARASOL

APS-like

on-orbit

Complement

Related Concerns [p.20 ]

  • VIIRS

    • Reduced imaging capability for mid-morning orbit

      • Discussions on-going with EUMETSAT about an advanced imager on METOP-D

    • Optical Crosstalk

  • MIS

    • Reduced capability microwave imager

    • First MIS scheduled to fly on NPOESS C2 (2016)

    • Discussion on-going with JAXA about AMSR-2

    • Pursuing several options for continuity of ocean vector wind measurements

TABLE Near-Term Planning [p.21 ]

 

Decision/Funding Commitment

Launch Readiness Date

CERES on NPP

September 2007 / FY07*

September 2009

TSIS on LDCM

January 2008 / FY09

Late 2011

JASON-3

Decision CY08 / FY10

2013

First Climate Free-Flyer

Mid 2009 / Pre-Phase A FY08

2014

* Would require re-allocation of existing funds

Next Steps [p.22 ]

  • Listen closely to the input from this Workshop

  • Continue to work with OSTP

  • Continue dialogue regarding potential international and/or domestic partnerships

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

Backups [pp. 23-24]

FIGURE [C.9] NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification. Reductions of Climate-Relevant Sensors. [p. 24]

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 53
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 54
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 55
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 56
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 57
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 58
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 59
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 60
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 61
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 62
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 63
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 64
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In 2000, the nation's next-generation National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program anticipated purchasing six satellites for $6.5 billion, with a first launch in 2008. By November 2005, however, it became apparent that NPOESS would overrun its cost estimates by at least 25 percent. In June 2006, the planned acquisition of six spacecraft was reduced to four, the launch of the first spacecraft was delayed until 2013, and several sensors were canceled or descoped in capability. To examine the impacts of these changes, particularly those associated with climate research, and ways to mitigate those impacts, NASA and NOAA asked the NRC to add this task to its ongoing "decadal survey," Earth Science and Applications from Space. The sponsors and the NRC agreed to address this task separately and to base its analysis on a major workshop. This book presents summaries of discussions at the workshop, which included sessions on the measurements and sensors originally planned for NPOESS and GOES-R; generation of climate data records; mitigation options, including the role of international partners; and cross-cutting issues.

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